Kerry next GE predictions

Bertie's Hat

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Currently 1FF, 1FG, 1SF plus 2 Healy Raes

Will Danny lose his seat to FF or FG?

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Accidental sock

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All Healy Raes...

The next batch of pods have almost matured.

When they hatch, the assimilation can begin
 

Mushroom

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hiding behind a poster

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Is Gunrunner's seat safe for SF/IRA?
Depends on who runs. If the daughter does, maybe. If not, extra FG votes could mean either a second FG seat when Arthur Spring is eliminated, or Spring gains enough Tralee votes with Ferris gone to get ahead of the second FGer and take a seat.
 

Gwannow

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It would be lovely to see both of the Marx brothers ( without the humour) turfed out, and many others across the land - Lowry in Tipp. comes to mind, but also so many, many others. We Irish love misery. When will we wake up?
 

Accidental sock

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Only God controls elections
 

Plebian

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Independent Michael Healy-Rae 25.7 20,378

Independent Danny Healy-Rae 12.6 9,991

Fine Gael Brendan Griffin 12.2 9,674

Sinn Féin Martin Ferris 11.9 9,458

Fianna Fáil John Brassil 10.3 8,156

Fine Gael Jimmy Deenihan 8.2 6,489

Labour Party Arthur Spring 6.1 4,813

Fianna Fáil Norma Moriarty 5.5 4,348

Independent Michael O'Gorman 1.6 1,236

AAA–PBP Brian Finucane 1.2 981

Green Party Michael Fitzgerald 1.3 1,011

Renua Ireland Donal Corcoran 0.9 716

Fine Gael Grace O'Donnell 1.0 776

Independent Mary Fitzgibbon 0.8 635

Independ1 FG, 1 SF.ent Kevin Murphy 0.6 464

Independent Henry Gaynor 0.2 147



As you can see from the 2016 result. The Healy-Rae clan had 2.3 quotas in first preference votes in the last GE. They can both drop plenty of votes and still both get elected. If they hold then it's probable that there won't be any change from 2 Inds, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF.
 

gijoe

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Who, if anyone, is going to run for Labour? The Springs have disappeared from the scene as far as I can see and Terry O'Brien is unlikely to want to take up the poisoned chalice. The Tralee Labour vote could go to Jim Finucane giving him an outside shot.
 

Lord Talbot

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Kerry next GE predictions

All Healy Rays, each one fatter and dumber than the last.
 

Plebian

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I have some doubts that she is as a shoe-in as most assume.
Was thinking that, but she's likely to do much better in South Kerry than her dad did last time and his old North Kerry vote should mostly stay with her as well.
 

Gwannow

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Kerry next GE predictions

All Healy Rays, each one fatter and dumber than the last.
Too much American and other's tourist's money going into the county. If it wasn't the case they'd have to get off their lazy minds and deal with reality,and actually do something worthwhile politically.
 

Gwannow

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Was thinking that, but she's likely to do much better in South Kerry than her dad did last time and his old North Kerry vote should mostly stay with her as well.
i actually think that Treasa is a bright and potentially decent candidate. I have never voted for Sinn Fein - just want to make that clear.
 

devoutcapitalist

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i actually think that Treasa is a bright and potentially decent candidate. I have never voted for Sinn Fein - just want to make that clear.
She should fairly comfortably get elected, dynasty politics in Kerry usually gets people elected.
 

Bea C

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I have some doubts that she is as a shoe-in as most assume.
Who, if anyone, is going to run for Labour? The Springs have disappeared from the scene as far as I can see and Terry O'Brien is unlikely to want to take up the poisoned chalice. The Tralee Labour vote could go to Jim Finucane giving him an outside shot.
She's not a shoe-in at all.
I met AJ the other day, I said hello, I was blanked.
Honestly, he looked like someone who'd spent the previous few days in a PE hall converted into an emergency shelter.
 


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