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Kerry North - West Limerick


davehiggz

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Series of threads on each constituency:


ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Kerry North First Preference Votes

Currently: 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF

Formerly Kerry North, this new constituency takes a large chunk of West Limerick under its belt and it's given some rural areas to Kerry South.

FG seat is safe and the locals show that the FF seat is safe too

Seat 3 is where things get interesting. It'll come down to Labour or SF for this seat.

Labour did very well in the locals with Dick Spring's son Arthur J. topping the poll in Tralee. SF had a slight lead over Labour in Listowel but Labour was 7 points ahead of them in Tralee. It'll be tight but Labour should take the seat

I predict: 1 FG, 1 FF and 1 Labour.
 


Derrida

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Jun 23, 2009
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It'll be tight but Labour should take the seat

I predict: 1 FG, 1 FF and 1 Labour.
Arthur's uncle Dick lost out to Ferris and you think that Dick's lightweight nephew will take the SF seat ? Wishful thinking my old china.

I know the Springs and much as Dick was a pr1ck, he was an intelligent and serious politician. AJ on the other hand is a nice lad but a bit of an airhead.
 
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Kerry North-West Limerick... seriously, isn't this an absolutely ridiculous constituency? Kerry N and Kerry S -each a bit shy of population for 3 seats each so do a little shuffle and then lump a big chunk of Lim West into Kerry North... unbelievable.

Kerry should be a 5 seater - No arguments. Expenses O' Donoghue will be returned automatically, making this a 4 seater.
 

davehiggz

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Arthur's uncle Dick lost out to Ferris and you think that Dick's lightweight nephew will take the SF seat ? Wishful thinking my old china.

I know the Springs and much as Dick was a pr1ck, he was an intelligent and serious politician. AJ on the other hand is a nice lad but a bit of an airhead.
Kerry North had a Labour seat for years until Sinn Féin took it. Now their TD goes to pick up convicted killers from prison! Maybe there isn't a good labour candidate but I'd pick an airhead over an accessory to terrorism any day. I hope the people of Kerry would do the same!
 

Tommy Tayto

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Apr 26, 2009
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I know the Springs and much as Dick was a pr1ck, he was an intelligent and serious politician. AJ on the other hand is a nice lad but a bit of an airhead.
What are you basing this on? I always found him (Dick) to be quite decent, which is a rare thing for a politician. One of the very few I would have time for, in fact. Care to fill us in?
 

turdsl

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Mar 2, 2008
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Kerry North had a Labour seat for years until Sinn Féin took it. Now their TD goes to pick up convicted killers from prison! Maybe there isn't a good labour candidate but I'd pick an airhead over an accessory to terrorism any day. I hope the people of Kerry would do the same!


Well, one sure thing the Kerry people are well able to make up their own minds, and i don't think they need advice on how to vote,
 
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Deenihan appears to be the only safe one, FF, Lab and SF will all be in the fight for 2 seats and around the same percentage, It's not known if FF will run 2 candidates or just stick with our current incumbent McEllistrim, The addition of part of Limerick West into the constituency should help FF and FG to a lesser extent. Lab should take the seat over SF thanks to FG transfers and the Terrorist will be unseated.

Likely Outcome - 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab
 

shannonBlueShirt

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Deenihan appears to be the only safe one, FF, Lab and SF will all be in the fight for 2 seats and around the same percentage, It's not known if FF will run 2 candidates or just stick with our current incumbent McEllistrim, The addition of part of Limerick West into the constituency should help FF and FG to a lesser extent. Lab should take the seat over SF thanks to FG transfers and the Terrorist will be unseated.

Likely Outcome - 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab
I dont farmers in West Limerick and they are seriously p*ssed off with FF... They are telling me , they gave my showder (FG) a chance next time round... Something about seling cows for less prices then 20 years ago...
 

bmw1

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Deenihan appears to be the only safe one, FF, Lab and SF will all be in the fight for 2 seats and around the same percentage, It's not known if FF will run 2 candidates or just stick with our current incumbent McEllistrim, The addition of part of Limerick West into the constituency should help FF and FG to a lesser extent. Lab should take the seat over SF thanks to FG transfers and the Terrorist will be unseated.

Likely Outcome - 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab
wooden be 2 sure coz north kerry is losin ff votes with 20 yrs and ferris vote is not a real sf vote its mostly personal he does the work with a serious machine backin him-ff usually run 2 cadidates and they always fight ff is even fighting at the church gate collections now
so FG1,LAB1,SF1
and a cryin collins from abbeyfeale wont help
 

ang

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May 4, 2009
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I dont farmers in West Limerick and they are seriously p*ssed off with FF... They are telling me , they gave my showder (FG) a chance next time round... Something about seling cows for less prices then 20 years ago...


You could be right. Lot's of complaints from farmers about prices at Mart.
 

pjoz

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Aug 25, 2009
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I find it very hard to see Ferris losing his seat.It'l hardly have come as a shock to the people of North Kerry that he has links to IRA volunteers, and his support for the prisioners familys was always expressed, and it was in that capacity he collected the prisioners on release.He has won a seat in the past 2 elections standing on the same mandate he 'l stand for come the next election and I doubt the people of North Kerry are going to abandon him now.FF could be in grave danger of losing a seat here if they run 2 candiates, which they are likely to do, doing otherwise would be an admission of defeat.Final standing to remain as is thou labour could push for the final seat if FF vote evenly enough split
 

adamirer

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Kerry North-West Limerick... seriously, isn't this an absolutely ridiculous constituency? Kerry N and Kerry S -each a bit shy of population for 3 seats each so do a little shuffle and then lump a big chunk of Lim West into Kerry North... unbelievable.

Kerry should be a 5 seater - No arguments. Expenses O' Donoghue will be returned automatically, making this a 4 seater.
Fully agree with you.

Howver, it is what it is. Battle between a resurrgent Labour and Sinn Fein for the seat. The locals elections were an indicator...SF got 4618 1st votes in KN this time, Lab got 6729... toss a coin. Ferris vs Spring will be a barometre of how well Labour can do nationally.

And it might be T Ferris, not M Ferris....
 

kerrynorth

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If the election were held today then FF would lose out. McEllistrim is a non-entity down here. West Limerick will vote for Deenihan ahead of FF. The area of about 10,000 population voted heavily for FG Cllrs last June and Deenihan has strong links in the area going back to when he was the PE teacher in Tarbert which was the local secondary for a lot of the area brought in and Abbeyfeale is virtually on the doorstep of where he cleans up votes around Duagh.

FG would be smart to run a Tralee area candidate leaving Jimmy to the Listowel and West Limerick areas.
 

FrankSpeaks

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I also think that Ferris will struggle at the next GE, but kerrynorth is correct about McEllistrim and it will probably be a fight between them for the last seat.
 

adamirer

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If the election were held today then FF would lose out. McEllistrim is a non-entity down here. West Limerick will vote for Deenihan ahead of FF. The area of about 10,000 population voted heavily for FG Cllrs last June and Deenihan has strong links in the area going back to when he was the PE teacher in Tarbert which was the local secondary for a lot of the area brought in and Abbeyfeale is virtually on the doorstep of where he cleans up votes around Duagh.

FG would be smart to run a Tralee area candidate leaving Jimmy to the Listowel and West Limerick areas.
So how do you see it then? You're suggesting 1 FG is a definite and the final 2 seats are between T or M Ferris, Arthur Spring (who everyone seems to think is a tool, but Labour are bouncing well), McEllistrom (FF) and a 2nd FG candidate.

I think its 1 FG 1 FF annd 1 Lab if its against M Ferris, but possibly swap Lab for SF if T Ferris runs in daddys place. Her MEP campaign was a credit to her.

FG would do very well with a 2nd candidate, by what you say and judging by Deenihans huge 1st pref vote in 2007, but do you really think a 2nd FG could get ahead of McEllistrom, Spring or Ferris?????? If they took a 2nd seat here you really are talking massive FG seat gains.
 

locke

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I don't see a second seat for FG, but they would be safe running 2 and by picking a candidate from the right area they could influence whether FF, Lab or SF fails to win a seat.
 

rubensni

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I think its 1 FG 1 FF annd 1 Lab if its against M Ferris, but possibly swap Lab for SF if T Ferris runs in daddys place. Her MEP campaign was a credit to her.
It looks like Toiréasa Ferris is going to run alright. SF are already getting her face out by recycling her Euro election posters with a 'No to Lisbon' sticker around Abbeyfeale and the other parts of W. Limerick that will transfer to Kerry N.

Here's an idea for devilment: Maybe Adare could be transferred into the new Kerry North - West Limerick constituency too? I'd love to see a photo of Ms Ferris and her father canvassing for votes outside the post office there. :p
 

Kerrygold

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It looks like Toiréasa Ferris is going to run alright. SF are already getting her face out by recycling her Euro election posters with a 'No to Lisbon' sticker around Abbeyfeale and the other parts of W. Limerick that will transfer to Kerry N.

Here's an idea for devilment: Maybe Adare could be transferred into the new Kerry North - West Limerick constituency too? I'd love to see a photo of Ms Ferris and her father canvassing for votes outside the post office there. :p
He canvasses Ballylongford regularly. No problems.

As for the consituency. It'll be a 3 way battle to fill 2 seats. I think it'll be between Ferris and Spring to be honest. Can't see Spring doing all that well in Listowel and areas around it and that will keep him below FF. Ferris has been living in Abbeyfeale and surrounds for a while now and the work he has being doing should stand to him there. However, with the Lab swing it will be a real battle.
 

Kerrygold

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Fully agree with you.

Howver, it is what it is. Battle between a resurrgent Labour and Sinn Fein for the seat. The locals elections were an indicator...SF got 4618 1st votes in KN this time, Lab got 6729... toss a coin. Ferris vs Spring will be a barometre of how well Labour can do nationally.

And it might be T Ferris, not M Ferris....
Where on earth did you get those figures? SF got well over 7,000 votes.

North Kerry doesn't always follow national trends.
 

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