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Kerry South - Predictions


FloatingVoterTralee

Well-known member
Joined
May 8, 2009
Messages
997
With the Healy-Rae seat under pressure, here is the field and my prediction:

Fianna Fáil: John O'Donoghue
Mark Daly/Michael Cahill
Fine Gael: Tom Sheahan
Brendan Griffin
Labour:Marie Moloney
Sinn Féin:Lynne Ní Bhaeoghlán
Independent: Michael Healy-Rae

No prizes for suggesting that Donoghue will top the poll, followed by Sheahan, but the final seat will be a three-way dogfight. Moloney could be a future TD, but the next election will come too soon, and while it's foolish to underestimate the Healy-Raes, Griffin's base in Castlemaine and the Dingle Peninsula should be decisive.

1. O'Donoghue
2. Sheahan
3. Griffin
 
Last edited:

morbro

Active member
Joined
May 28, 2009
Messages
107
Don't agree with your prediction. A year ago I would have said that O'Donoghue would have headed the poll, but a big change in political landscape since. I believe Moloney, Lab will get a seat with the Gilmore Gale. FG will not get two seats here, maybe change of personalities Griffin instead of Sheahan. Michael Healy Rae and John o'Donoghue fighting for last seat, could go either way.
 

paullott

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Jul 17, 2010
Messages
41
O'Donoghue and Sheahan shpuld be safe but I doubt if there are enough FG or Castlemaine/Dingle votes to elect Griffin without a large Labour transfer. Could be that Griffin's votes elect Moloney/Labour instead. I think the H-Rae dynasty is shaky and won't transfer. A lot of bluster in the past by JHR about doing many things for West Kerry but nothing delivered. Votes for him might be scarce here.
 

cricket

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Nov 7, 2009
Messages
14,029
O'Donoghue and Sheahan shpuld be safe but I doubt if there are enough FG or Castlemaine/Dingle votes to elect Griffin without a large Labour transfer. Could be that Griffin's votes elect Moloney/Labour instead. I think the H-Rae dynasty is shaky and won't transfer. A lot of bluster in the past by JHR about doing many things for West Kerry but nothing delivered. Votes for him might be scarce here.
Did JHR ever manage to get that property approved as an asylum / refugee centre ? He was in favour , wasn't he ?
 

adamirer

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Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
454
does anyone actually KNOW what he 'delivered'. Was there ever a list produced?
 

True Republican

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Apr 3, 2008
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does anyone actually KNOW what he 'delivered'. Was there ever a list produced?
1) He got a few potholes fixed.
2) He got a new by-pass.
3) He got people hiked up on the waiting list.
4) He helped people get on the social housing list.
5) He's great craic who likes to buy a round of drinks.

Just your typical parochial, parish pump politician.
 

Fencing

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Joined
Sep 19, 2010
Messages
11
O' Donoghue topping the pole is the perfect example that in Irish politics that you can make a mockery of the country but as long as you take care of your own, you'll be fine
 

Cai

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Joined
May 30, 2004
Messages
7,901
Did you use a pin to pick these 3 out because there is'nt a hope of FG taking 2 seats here,not any time soon anyway.
Oops - I meant:

(1) Moloney
(2) Sheanhan
(3) O'Donoghue

I went to a political meeting after work, after which a pub was entered where drink was taken, after which my ability to cut & paste was impaired.

Apologies all round.
 

dotski_w_

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Oct 28, 2004
Messages
2,485
Website
irishpollingreport.wordpress.com
Oops - I meant:

(1) Moloney
(2) Sheanhan
(3) O'Donoghue

I went to a political meeting after work, after which a pub was entered where drink was taken, after which my ability to cut & paste was impaired.

Apologies all round.
You'll be hoarse in the morning! ;)

FWIW, the spreadsheet reckons this is a pretty safe 1/1/1 for the big 3, all in and around 25-30% with Healy-Rae at 17%.
 

paullott

Member
Joined
Jul 17, 2010
Messages
41
does anyone actually KNOW what he 'delivered'. Was there ever a list produced?
There was a list dropped in to the house a few years ago during some campaign or other - included the famous/infamous Cromane pier, new schools, Dingle Hospital (still unopened 15 months after completion) the Dingle-Daingean Uí Chuis/An Daingean matter (still unresolved after years of promises - and threats from Dev Óg) etc etc. Trouble is - it was almost identical to one that the then Ceann Comhairle had also issued.
There were words :mad:
 

Vincent Browne's tie

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Joined
Mar 10, 2009
Messages
259
Are ye mad??
2 Fine Gael?
 

True Republican

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Apr 3, 2008
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4,067
What about Seams Moynihan for labour?
I thought Moynihan was a FG supporter, anyway why should he run, he womn a few All Irelands but it doesn't necessarily mean that he is suited to politics.
 

Drumknot

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Jan 15, 2006
Messages
40
Perhaps i'm being naive, but does the expenses scandal and the price the tax payer had to pay for a hat for Cheltenham not have any impact down there?
 

bersouth

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Apr 5, 2010
Messages
150
Oops - I meant:

(1) Moloney
(2) Sheanhan
(3) O'Donoghue

I went to a political meeting after work, after which a pub was entered where drink was taken, after which my ability to cut & paste was impaired.

Apologies all round.
So ye are predicting the end of the Healy Rae input in South Kerry, wonder will todays news of furthur payment to John O'Donoghue have a bearing on outcome, I suppose only time will tell.So its adios amiego to Healy Rae
 

Red_93

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Joined
Mar 20, 2010
Messages
4,678
I thought Moynihan was a FG supporter, anyway why should he run, he womn a few All Irelands but it doesn't necessarily mean that he is suited to politics.
Jackie Healey Rae is hardly suited to politics, nor is JO'D. Evidently this is not a big consideration for the voters in Kerry South.
 
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