Kick off for the next Irish GE?

jmcc

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Seems that FG will not revisit the FF/FG confidence and supply agreement and this could be a starting point for the next Irish GE:

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2017/0919/906001-politics/

While the talks over the budget are ongoing, could the recent opinion poll boost for FG have given it some confidence that it could do better in a GE under Varadkar than it did under the village idiot Kenny? If no agreement is reached between FF and FG on the budget, could FF vote against the budget?
 


Catalpast

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Seems that FG will not revisit the FF/FG confidence and supply agreement and this could be a starting point for the next Irish GE:

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2017/0919/906001-politics/

While the talks over the budget are ongoing, could the recent opinion poll boost for FG have given it some confidence that it could do better in a GE under Varadkar than it did under the village idiot Kenny? If no agreement is reached between FF and FG on the budget, could FF vote against the budget?
If you cant pass a budget

- then that's an General Election....

But why would MM want to trigger one

- unless he feels he would get elected Taoiseach instead?
 

wombat

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But why would MM want to trigger one

- unless he feels he would get elected Taoiseach instead?
He won't, he has invested a lot of his personal authority in the present agreement so he'll need a major issue to pull the plug and despite media wishful thinking I don't think the argument between two bald men over a comb will be big enough. People outside politics don't appreciate the personal cash cost for an individual TD in fighting an election - that's the magic reason behind 3 budgets, recoup expenses.
 

LDF

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MM can't be Taoiseach so he's settling for the next best thing - pretending to be Taoiseach.
 

ruserious

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If you think back to where we were in February 2011 during the last days of that hated Fianna Fáil government and where we are now; you'd be pretty stupid to trust FF with power again.
 

mangaire2

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Seems that FG will not revisit the FF/FG confidence and supply agreement and this could be a starting point for the next Irish GE:

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2017/0919/906001-politics/

While the talks over the budget are ongoing, could the recent opinion poll boost for FG have given it some confidence that it could do better in a GE under Varadkar than it did under the village idiot Kenny? If no agreement is reached between FF and FG on the budget, could FF vote against the budget?
the next Opinion Poll could well deflate the "boost for FG" of the most recent one.
 

Fullforward

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Leo grows a beard and has a message for Fianna Fail.....................


[video=youtube;1ksAzEJFlQg]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ksAzEJFlQg[/video]
 

Observer

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the next Opinion Poll could well deflate the "boost for FG" of the most recent one.
Yep. The polls towards the end of 2015 and start of 2016 were showing FG in the low 30s - a couple of percentage points off their 2011 high but looking good to be in the high 60s. Only one poll during the general election campaign showed them as low as 26. Only one poll during the previous year showed FF as high as 24. Running to the country on the basis of polls is a mug's game.
 

dresden8

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People outside politics don't appreciate the personal cash cost for an individual TD in fighting an election - that's the magic reason behind 3 budgets, recoup expenses.
Yup, the brown envelopes have dried up. They have to spend their own money now.
 

The Rahenyite

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Seems that FG will not revisit the FF/FG confidence and supply agreement and this could be a starting point for the next Irish GE:

While the talks over the budget are ongoing, could the recent opinion poll boost for FG have given it some confidence that it could do better in a GE under Varadkar than it did under the village idiot Kenny? If no agreement is reached between FF and FG on the budget, could FF vote against the budget?
FF would have to pull the plug in a way that wouldn't look politically advantageous and to appearing to be against something that a majority agree with them on. Michael Martin will be well aware that voters tend to push the party that causes an early election like the Conservatives in the UK this year or FF in 1989.
 

The Rahenyite

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the next Opinion Poll could well deflate the "boost for FG" of the most recent one.
Yeah people are getting way too carried away with a boost for FG on the back of an inactive political period. FG will only go up in the next poll, after the budget, if the budget has goodies in it but there really isn't a lot of money to play around with.
 

The Rahenyite

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Yep. The polls towards the end of 2015 and start of 2016 were showing FG in the low 30s - a couple of percentage points off their 2011 high but looking good to be in the high 60s. showed them as low as 26. Only one poll during the previous year showed FF as high as 24. Running to the country on the basis of polls is a mug's game.
I remember people saying FG could win a majority in 2016 on 34% but that would take a hell of a lot of transfers and with the party being in government 6 years now, and speaking as an ex-member who experienced the party going from being loved to being loathed, they're certainly aren't getting a transfer bounce in the next election.
 

ionsniffer

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sinn fein posters up in bus shelters around Cork. Also spotted a local fine gael councillor out with a professional photographer yesterday getting snaps done. I hope any of them call to my door.
 


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