Kurdistan to hold independence referendum this year

Breanainn

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Vega1447

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Now that IS have been progressively expelled from Iraqi territory, the Kurdistan Autonomous Region is preparing to hold an independence referendum in 2017, supervised by the UN and US. In many ways, it rectifies the abandonment of the Treaty of Sevrés, but would Ankara promptly invade the fledgling nation, and what stance would Syria take?

http://www.iraqinews.com/baghdad-politics/un-agrees-oversee-kurdistan-independence-referendum-official/
I doubt if the Turkish military are up to much now that Caliph Erdogan has purged the top brass. When Stalin did the same in the 1930's it didn't work well.
 

Dame_Enda

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I dont think the US will agree to this. Too much at stake in the alliance with Turkey including the 50 nukes at Incirlik. I think both the Turks and the Iraqi army would not accept it, not least given the importance of Kirkuk for the oil industry.

I also think that the Kurds deserve a state, given there are 20 million of them and they were sortof promised one under the Treaty of Sevres, which was then overturned by the Treaty of Lausanne.

On the other hand Russia has called for "cultural autonomy" for the Kurds, and may be considering turning them into their latest separatist puppet state. Not entirely sure Russia wants a complete victory for Assad. I think Putin wants to keep Assad dependent on them for arms and aid, and a quick end to the war or a complete takeover by Assad of the whole country wouldnt help that goal. So hinting at support for the Kurds is diplomatically clever in terms of trying to separate them from the US.
 
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midlander12

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Good luck to them, the Kurds are about the only parties in the region that I have any time for, and there is an outside chance that that illusory item, a progressive Muslim state, might actually emerge. It would be nice to see Erdogan and the various other reactionary elements in the area get their noses out of joint. I would not be hopeful, though - the Middle East does not do happy endings.
 

ruserious

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Kurdistan is spread over Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Iran and even up to parts of Armenia. Is this referendum specific to Iraqi Kurdistan?
 

razorblade

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In theory it looks like a good idea, however how it would work in practice is a different kettle of fish, things like this dont always end well, the Israeli/Palastinian conflict being a case in point.
 

Analyzer

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Will Mehole Martin be lending his support.

With a bit of luck Mehole, Bertie, Biffo, Speedy O'Donoghue and chums might go over there.

If they got kidnapped, would the ransom be paid ????







No.
 

Analyzer

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It is a good idea. However none of the neighbours wants this-With the possible exception of Azerbijan, as there are Azeris living in Northern Iran.
 

midlander12

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Will Mehole Martin be lending his support.

With a bit of luck Mehole, Bertie, Biffo, Speedy O'Donoghue and chums might go over there.

If they got kidnapped, would the ransom be paid ????







No.
Who would bother kidnapping them? Or even know (or care) who they were?
 

razorblade

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Will Mehole Martin be lending his support.

With a bit of luck Mehole, Bertie, Biffo, Speedy O'Donoghue and chums might go over there.

If they got kidnapped, would the ransom be paid ????







No.
Who in their right mind would even pay the ransom, they would be welcome to keep them, its no skin off my nose.
 

danger here

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Good luck to them, the Kurds are about the only parties in the region that I have any time for, and there is an outside chance that that illusory item, a progressive Muslim state, might actually emerge. It would be nice to see Erdogan and the various other reactionary elements in the area get their noses out of joint. I would not be hopeful, though - the Middle East does not do happy endings.
Interesting I have the same general view of Kurds as you do more or less but I mentioned this a few months back to a friend who is a westernised Iranian from a city close by the Kurdish part of Iran. Me saying how I have a lot of sympathy for their liberal ways and her agreeing but telling me it's not all so black and white either. Telling me how a Kurdish friend of a friend in some village was killed by her brothers because she had a boyfriend and that they can be more conservative than the regime in some cases.

Always the way with these things I suppose...

I'm working with a Lebanese guy at the moment, a Lebanese christian/athiest but to look at with his deep features and beard and focussed eyes you'd think he was a hardcore snackbar. He has a viciously dark sense of humour as well (I mean like saying Allahu Akbar under his breath and stuff like that), which is great craic in a German office and my boss being a Bavarian with a distinctly Irish sense of humour actually :D
 
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darkhorse

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Its unlikely that there are any boundaries in the ME that would lead to peaceful co-existence of cultural / religious identities. The solution heretofore has been to allow Dictators to rule with an iron fist forcing violent Islam to accept other identities. And that will probably remain the case until the influence of Islam reduces to a level that allows individual free thinking.
But realistically, that will never happen.

So the issue is which dictator is most suitable:
1) the looney Muslim dictator aka Iran who will ruin the lives of the general population, torturing dissidents, hanging gays, funding private armies overseas, etc
2) the western supported dictator who will merciless destroy the lives of Muslim fanatics but allow the general population to live on
 
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danger here

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Its unlikely that there are any boundaries in the ME that would lead to peaceful co-existence of cultural / religious identities. The solution heretofore has been to allow Dictators to rule with an iron fist forcing violent Islam to accept other identities. And that will probably remain the case until the influence of Islam reduces to a level that allows individual free thinking.
But realistically, that will never happen.

So the issue is which dictator is most suitable:
1) the looney Muslim dictator aka Iran who will ruin the lives of the general population, torturing dissidents, hanging gays, funding private armies overseas, etc
2) the western supported dictator who will merciless destroy the lives of Muslim fanatics but allow the general population to live on
I agree broadly with your first sentences, however, the same was said about Christians at one time before we copped ourselves on, the same will happen in time in the Islamic world, the same being a few centuries or possibly longer.

On your second points I disagree, Iran is a very bad example as Rouhani is relatively liberal and indeed ordinary Iranian society as a whole is far more liberal that say somewhere Celtic Tigerish like Dubai or Qatar. If you want to drink in Iran you just go to the right hotels and wink or simply phone a certain delivery service for home delivery. Indeed not so long ago it was light years ahead of Ireland, at some point in the near future it will resume it's place in the world. I'd not consider any of the western backed parts of the ME to be shining example of democracy in action, even if it keeps things in check.
 

Clanrickard

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Sunset

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Fingers crossed, personally I think that if Iraqi and maybe the Syrian Kurds (will take time) get independent and if Erdogan wins his referendum to be president for the next 100 years, this could mean that the Turkish Kurds will get serious about independence too. They all would deserve it, as they have suffered at the hands of the majority in all three countries.
 

Dame_Enda

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Fingers crossed, personally I think that if Iraqi and maybe the Syrian Kurds (will take time) get independent and if Erdogan wins his referendum to be president for the next 100 years, this could mean that the Turkish Kurds will get serious about independence too. They all would deserve it, as they have suffered at the hands of the majority in all three countries.
The recent chaos in the Turkish armed forces might make it harder for Turkey to suppress.
 

Sunset

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The recent chaos in the Turkish armed forces might make it harder for Turkey to suppress.
Yes, and if Erdogan wins his referendum than I think Kurds will be even more disillusioned than they are already. They have the critical mass to seriously challenge the Turkish state, especially if they got some backing from what's left of the secularists.
 


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