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Labour - a victim of political climate change?

jmcc

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If the polls are to be believed, ( Mixed Messages for Parties As Voters Look to Local and Euro Elections - RedC Research & Marketing Green Party Support Increases - Latest Sunday Times Poll - Behaviour & Attitudes ) then there is a shift away from Labour and a shift towards the Greens.

Labour is very much like a bunch of wannabe Snow Whites led by seven political dwarves and the electorate seems to be growing tired of the unelected Labour leadership. Brendan Howlin is more Brendan Who as regards the media these days and Labour's compulsory inclusion in TV discussion panels is no longer compulsory. Labour couldn't even get a candidate from Ireland South and had to get a candidate from Dublin. There is some speculation that Labour's grassroots vote getting machine did not recover from the disasters of the 2016 GE and the 2014 LEs.

So what will happen if the results go against Labour in the Euros and the Local Elections on Friday? How many seats to Piesters expect Labour to win in the Local Elections? It won 51 in 2014. Could it go as low as 30? Will Labour win seats in Dublin but lose them elsewhere?

Fintan O'Toole is advocating a green vote on Friday for the sake of the species. Labour certainly counts as an endangered species at this stage but it may also be a victim of a political climate change that sees the Anyone But FF/FG/SF shifting away from Labour towards the Greens. If the Greens do a lot better than expected in the LEs and Euros, could this translate into success in the next General Election at the expense of Labour?
 


ainm_eile

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The Greens were more effective as junior partners in government with 7 TDs than Labour with over 30 TDs, which is probably why people are forgiving them fairly quickly.
 

Degeneration X

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If the polls are to be believed, ( Mixed Messages for Parties As Voters Look to Local and Euro Elections - RedC Research & Marketing Green Party Support Increases - Latest Sunday Times Poll - Behaviour & Attitudes ) then there is a shift away from Labour and a shift towards the Greens.

Labour is very much like a bunch of wannabe Snow Whites led by seven political dwarves and the electorate seems to be growing tired of the unelected Labour leadership. Brendan Howlin is more Brendan Who as regards the media these days and Labour's compulsory inclusion in TV discussion panels is no longer compulsory. Labour couldn't even get a candidate from Ireland South and had to get a candidate from Dublin. There is some speculation that Labour's grassroots vote getting machine did not recover from the disasters of the 2016 GE and the 2014 LEs.

So what will happen if the results go against Labour in the Euros and the Local Elections on Friday? How many seats to Piesters expect Labour to win in the Local Elections? It won 51 in 2014. Could it go as low as 30? Will Labour win seats in Dublin but lose them elsewhere?

Fintan O'Toole is advocating a green vote on Friday for the sake of the species. Labour certainly counts as an endangered species at this stage but it may also be a victim of a political climate change that sees the Anyone But FF/FG/SF shifting away from Labour towards the Greens. If the Greens do a lot better than expected in the LEs and Euros, could this translate into success in the next General Election at the expense of Labour?
Not sure there has been a shift away - according to the polls the LP are exactly where they were five years ago.

The Greens perhaps have gained traction from other sources.
 

jmcc

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The Greens were more effective as junior partners in government with 7 TDs than Labour with over 30 TDs, which is probably why people are forgiving them fairly quickly.
It may also have to do, partially, with a younger demographic being more aware of climate issues and voting Green may be more natural than voting for FF/FG/Lab. Even the whole concept of being "green" is brilliant from a marketing perspective. It is free mindshare. I think that even FFers considered Eamon Ryan to have been one of the better ministers.
 

jmcc

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Not sure there has been a shift away - according to the polls the LP are exactly where they were five years ago.
One of the pollsters seemed to be continually showing Labour at around 5 to 6%. It wasn't showing the variations that other pollsters had in their polls. Labour was even at 2% core support in one of them.

The Greens perhaps have gained traction from other sources.
Voting patterns crystalise as the election day approaches and the danger for Labour is that some of the floating vote on which it depends will vote Green and stay Green.
 

shiel

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Feb 14, 2011
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The Irish media do not want Labour.

They want to restore the people that they cheer led to victory in five successive elections starting in 1987.

They would still be in power with media support only they bankrupt the country spectacularly and had to be bailed out in 2010.

They are now being supported in blaming everyone else including Labour for the continuing consequences of the collapse which they caused.
 

brughahaha

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The Irish media do not want Labour.

Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha..........

Seriously , if ever a more factually incorrect piece of nonsense has ever been written on P.ie. i don't think Ive seen it , well maybe once

But this actually competes with Hammers claim that Enda lowered oil prices

The poster clearly knows NOTHING about the Irish media or its history

priceless !! gotta love this place sometimes 😂
 

constitutionus

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the irish media- in particular RTE- is the only bloody reason anyone talks about the Lab party at all. )

most see brendan howlin and think this.


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TBH i think its quite heartening to see what contempt the electorate holds ALL of the parties in. LAB has got the worst of it due to their outright lies and treachery. but to see a good solid block of smaller parties/indos near the 20 percentile bracket forcing FF/G to have to sleep with each other is joyous.
:D

seems the noel whelans of the worlds prediction that we'd be back to business as usual relatively soon is as accurate as all his OTHER divinations.
 

Dame_Enda

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Labour have been steadily losing ground to the Hard Left for years. It is part of the crisis of the Western Left, namely how to respond to the rejection of Third Way economics by the traditional supporters of Centre-Left parties. During the 1990s and 2000s, Blair, Brown, and indeed Spring and Gilmore could be considered part of the modernising wing of the Centre Left. But the pendulum has swung so far now in favour of corporations than people find that they have the whip hand on the workers.

I recall in the Blair years in the run up to the 1997 GE, that he was constantly distancing Labour from traditional Leftist causes like nationalisation e.g. repeal of Clause 4, removing support for a United Ireland from the Labour constitution, accepting the Tory privatisations of utilities, foundation hospitals etc. Irish Labour and the US Democrats likewise moved to the Centre. But the Centre in 2019 is not the Centre of the 1990s. Societies in the wake of the 2008 crisis are more persuaded of the case for government intervention in the economy.

Stories about family members of Labour politicians getting fatcat jobs during the FG-Labour government didn't help their image with the working class.
 

Disillusioned democrat

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Mar 16, 2010
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15,642
"Labour" is lost....does it have a brand anymore? I don't think it's climate change - it's just venal incompetence and denial.

Labour should be the "go to" party for the 2m middle income PAYE workers who expect decent public services for the taxes they pay, but they're not.

Howlin is a joke - a multi-pensioned, millionaire trying to re-write recent history where his party happily rode shotgun for FG as they continued FF's work of enriching a small inner circle at tax payers expense.

I would be instinctively a Labour voter, but as long as the king of denial reigns and the likes of Ivana Bacik is the ideological North Star I couldn't bring myself to vote for them again.
 

WayOutWest

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1,492
The Labour vote hasn’t disappeared, it’s still there. There are many people out there who still being in equality and social justice but know that Labour as a party do not share the same values . Nobody stole Labour’s clothes, they didn’t even give their clothes away, they actually sold them for personal gain.
Green values should be welcomed but can we trust the Green Party in Ireland. Their only time in government was a disaster for us all. We can remember Gormley destroying ancient monuments and Ryan himself was supporting the oil companies. Just another party who cannot be trusted.
 

shiel

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Joined
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Messages
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Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha..........

Seriously , if ever a more factually incorrect piece of nonsense has ever been written on P.ie. i don't think Ive seen it , well maybe once

But this actually competes with Hammers claim that Enda lowered oil prices

The poster clearly knows NOTHING about the Irish media or its history

priceless !! gotta love this place sometimes 😂
I have obviously touched a nerve.

When you are over the target you are liable to get flack.

I perceive the Irish media are biased in favour of the people who were in unchallenged power too long during the high flying years of the early noughties and ended up bankrupting the country.

I am not making a partisan party political point.

If another political group had been in unchallenged power during that period they could have been better or worse.

But the people in government pre-2009 are never reminded of the fact that they were round the table when decisions were made which bankrupted the country.

They are allowed to complain about housing, hospitals etc without it being pointed out to them that it was they and their banking colleagues’ decisions which resulted in the country going broke and the housing, hospital etc problems being so difficult right up to the present day.

Instead of being challenged they are getting away with blaming everyone else.
 

brughahaha

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I have obviously touched a nerve.

When you are over the target you are liable to get flack.

I perceive the Irish media are biased in favour of the people who were in unchallenged power too long during the high flying years of the early noughties and ended up bankrupting the country.

I am not making a partisan party political point.

If another political group had been in unchallenged power during that period they could have been better or worse.


But the people in government pre-2009 are never reminded of the fact that they were round the table when decisions were made which bankrupted the country.

They are allowed to complain about housing, hospitals etc without it being pointed out to them that it was they and their banking colleagues’ decisions which resulted in the country going broke and the housing, hospital etc problems being so difficult right up to the present day.

Instead of being challenged they are getting away with blaming everyone else.

The only nerve you touched was proving you are a political and historical ignoramus ....cheerio , you're either a troll or so stupid not worth bothering with ...
 

shiel

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16,995
The only nerve you touched was proving you are a political and historical ignoramus ....cheerio , you're either a troll or so stupid not worth bothering with ...
Calm down.

The historical facts are that government expenditure increased from just under 20 bn euro in 1997 to 100 bn euro in 2010.

That ended with a crash of spectacular proportions in not just in Irish terms but in international terms.

The following are some comments from the Irish media from around the time of the 2002 budget and half way through that period when spending was going through the roof.

'Every day and in every way things are getting better and better'.

'There is virtually no downside'.

'Best and most responsible of budgets. Minister passed with flying colours.'

There was much more in that vein then.

The present day media is supporting those who decided on those 'responsible' budgets and allowing them to blame everyone else for the spectacularly negative consequences which we are still suffering from.
 

Degeneration X

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One of the pollsters seemed to be continually showing Labour at around 5 to 6%. It wasn't showing the variations that other pollsters had in their polls. Labour was even at 2% core support in one of them.

Voting patterns crystalise as the election day approaches and the danger for Labour is that some of the floating vote on which it depends will vote Green and stay Green.
So you think Labour will wind up with Renua levels of support come the count on Saturday?
 

wombat

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So you think Labour will wind up with Renua levels of support come the count on Saturday?
Pretty silly to compare the oldest party in the state with existing TDs and councillors to a single issue party without national representation. I expect Labour to elect some young councillors who will eventually become TDs the hard way, by building up a local base.
 

Degeneration X

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Pretty silly to compare the oldest party in the state with existing TDs and councillors to a single issue party without national representation. I expect Labour to elect some young councillors who will eventually become TDs the hard way, by building up a local base.
I was asking another poster a question in response to his observation about Labour's core figures.

As for the young Labour councillors building things up - I wouldn't bank on it if I were you. From what I hear their organisation is in rag order.
 

jmcc

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So you think Labour will wind up with Renua levels of support come the count on Saturday?
Renua's national support level? No. Labour's vote in the Euros might be a good metric for its national support. Labour's real problem is if its LE seat count declines. Labour likes to present itself as being "progressive" but it is not. It has no leadership and no direction. There's really very little to differentiate it from FG/FF. And that's its problem. It has always been dependent on transfers from the larger parties to get its candidates elected. Single issue parties are different in that they have a clear message. From some of the stories being floated in the media about Labour, there does seem to be some panic over the results. I thought that the worst case at the LEs would see Labour's seat count drop to around 30 seats. If those transfers do not happen, it could even drop to around 25. But Local Elections are curious ones. They are driven by local issues. Labour could gain seats in Dublin and lose the outside it turning it into a kind of PDs 2.0 (a Dail party without much local infrastructure or seats).
 


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