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Labour - a victim of political climate change?



Strawberry

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Like most Labourites, she just didn't get the whole vote thing. :) If people in Dublin couldn't vote then they couldn't elect Joan Burton.
I think it was people in every part of Dublin apart from her constituency that she was all indignant about. They're tools of the establishment who don't know how hard it is for those who have to work their way to the top.
 

jmcc

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I think it was people in every part of Dublin apart from her constituency that she was all indignant about. They're tools of the establishment who don't know how hard it is for those who have to work their way to the top.
The great thing about Labour, from the establishment parties point of view, is that they have no ideology that needs to be dealt with. It is just greed and illusions of grandeur.
 

Dame_Enda

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We need a cap on the national herd to curb methane emissions. Andrew Doyle was saying an increase in the size of the herd would be okay during the campaign.
 

wombat

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Looking at results in Dublin, it looks like FF are back in action in the city council so it will be interesting to see who they team up with. Looks like the Trots have had as bad a result as SF so it shows the way forward for Labour, people have had enough of shouting, if Labour can heal their split with the SDs, they could be a force in the city.
 

jmcc

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Looking at results in Dublin, it looks like FF are back in action in the city council so it will be interesting to see who they team up with. Looks like the Trots have had as bad a result as SF so it shows the way forward for Labour, people have had enough of shouting, if Labour can heal their split with the SDs, they could be a force in the city.
That does seem to be the current FG position of talking around the Green Machine result in taking seats from FG in what it had considered its Dublin fortress. As for the way forward with Labour, that's a bit of a laugh. FF was the biggest party at local level in 2014. Now it is on track to improve on that. FG looks like it will lose seats. Labour is being demolished by the Green Machine and even the Social Democrats are successfully catching votes in the Nice But Dim demographic. The way forward for Labour is just an exit.
 

PBP voter

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Even the dogs on the street know that the childrens hospital location was chosen to line the pockets of labour councilors in that area.
They have one councilor in that area.
 

parentheses

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Labour just about holding their own.

Shocking result for SF, though.
 

wombat

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That does seem to be the current FG position of talking around the Green Machine result in taking seats from FG in what it had considered its Dublin fortress.
I'm not sure how many seats the Greens have taken from FG in Dublin. I had a look at the transfer of the Green in Dun Laoghaire and they went mainly to Lab & SDs (approx 600 v's 300 to FG) although some of that may have been due to geography as they favoured the closer candidate. It looks like the narrative of Greens taking votes from FG may be exaggerated.
 

jmcc

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It looks like the narrative of Greens taking votes from FG may be exaggerated.
Hard to say for certain this early but it from the spin from FG and Labour, there's a bit of a panic over the rise of the Greens. The whole line about FG making gains of 50 seats or so seems to have been dropped.
 

Northsideman

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Have you heard about the GFA?
You mean the agreement that is not being implemented at the moment by either side?
 

hiding behind a poster

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Renua's national support level? No. Labour's vote in the Euros might be a good metric for its national support.
You really do post some fierce rubbish, jmcc. Labour didn't put much into their Euro campaigns because they knew they had no chance of winning any of them. so they focussed their resources on the locals, and made gains.

Labour's real problem is if its LE seat count declines.
Which it didn't. It rose.

Labour likes to present itself as being "progressive" but it is not. It has no leadership and no direction. There's really very little to differentiate it from FG/FF. And that's its problem. It has always been dependent on transfers from the larger parties to get its candidates elected. Single issue parties are different in that they have a clear message. From some of the stories being floated in the media about Labour, there does seem to be some panic over the results.
Not any more. They'll be quietly happy. Made some gains, got some youngsters elected, and got a vote across Dublin that puts them in contention for several Dail seats.

I thought that the worst case at the LEs would see Labour's seat count drop to around 30 seats. If those transfers do not happen, it could even drop to around 25.
Or even 56?

But Local Elections are curious ones. They are driven by local issues. Labour could gain seats in Dublin and lose the outside it turning it into a kind of PDs 2.0 (a Dail party without much local infrastructure or seats).
Well the results proved the exact opposite.
 

jmcc

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Isn't Labour lucky to have an "FGer" who always stand up for it on P.ie. :)

The Labour revivial that had been pushed by the IT didn't happen, did it? The SocDems took 11 seats. The Greens did very well. Labour lost 1.4% on its 2014 LE vote. In 2014, your beloved Labour lost 81 seats. Its failure to gain a substantial number of seats in 2019 does not look good. It won 51 seats in 2014. It won 56 seats in 2019.

The SocDems are fishing in Labour's pool of Nice But Dim voters. The Greens have become the Anyone But FF/FG/SF option. The SocDem Dublin candidate (Gannon) even beat the Labour candidate (White) in the Euros. Your chap Hayes only crawled into the last seat in 2014 after incessant propaganda from the media about how he was going to top the poll.

The media focus has shifted away from the cry-bully SJWism of Labour under Howlin/O'Riordan/Bacik etc to the nice and eco-friendly Greens. Perhaps you see Labour as natural partners for FG but there has been a shift at local government level and the gains that you and other Labour sympathisers were hoping for did not happen.
 

PBP voter

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It is interesting that Lab got 1.4% less of the vote yet increased the number of seats.

Just shows how complex PR is.

OK labour probably got more transfers this time but the fact that SF vote was down helped them. Once SF candidates weren't getting quotas it left them depending on transfers which didn't come.

Plus SF had too many candidates. If they ran lest they would have won more seats. But that was never an option as sitting councilors would have been told not to run.
 
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jmcc

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It is interesting that Lab got 1.4% of votr yet increased the number of seats.
Lost 1.4% of its 2014 vote.

Just shows how complex PR is.
It is Alternative History for political anoraks.

OK labour probably got more transfers this time but the fact that SF vote was down helped them. Once SF candidates weren't getting quotas it left them depending on transfers which didn't come.
SF got Labourised? It is somewhat more complex in that Labour voters are, as a demographic, quite different from SF voters. SF's problems are quite different though its attempt to be Labour 2.0 with a focus on SJW issues instead of HJW (Houses, Jobs and Wages) damaged it.

Plus SF had too many candidates. If they ran lest they would have won more seats. But that was never an option as sitting councilors would have been told not to run.
SF's 2014 results benefited from a toxic government (FG/Lab). It was inevitable that it would lose seats. I even mentioned that Labour could gain seats but not a significant number. The problem is that Labour really needed to gain more seats in the 2019 LEs than it did. Now its voting pool of Anyone But FF/FG/SF has been targeted by the Greens and its voting pool of Nice But Dim voters has been targeted by the SocDems. If the Greens and SocDems manage to leverage their LE and Euro momentum for the GE, then some Labour seats will be lost.
 

RasherHash

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We need a cap on the national herd to curb methane emissions. Andrew Doyle was saying an increase in the size of the herd would be okay during the campaign.
And we need to triple air fares and driving costs, immediately, and merely as a start.

The planet is going to die in 12 years so we've a lot to do and no time to do it.
 

wombat

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The planet is going to die in 12 years so we've a lot to do and no time to do it.
This is the nonsense that's being peddled to schoolchildren to frighten them.
 

RasherHash

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This is the nonsense that's being peddled to schoolchildren to frighten them.
It is verboten so say that, denier.

Our really with it tee-shock (the Indian...you know) believes it implicitly...or your money back... guaranteed 😂
 


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