Labour after the next General Election

DaveM

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Joined
Sep 16, 2010
Messages
15,963
Labour are sick. We all know that. The question is whether it's terminal. And a lot depends on whether they come out the far side of the next GE as a viable entity or whether they are in PD post-2007 territory where everyone apart from the diehards in the party saw the game was up.

So let's put on our nerd pants (no girls were going to be interested in you tonight anyway) and look at numbers.

In the 2016 General Election labour polled 6.6% of the first preference vote. Outliers like 1992 and 2011 aside their long term trends was always in and around the 10% mark. So the starting point of this cycle saw one third of their core vote having abandoned them.

Since the last general election there has been 49 opinion polls. They don't make for happy reading.

Their best figure is 8% (Millward Brown/Sunday Indo, 26/10/2016).

Their worst was just 3% (B&A/Sunday Times, 9 November 2016 and B&A/Sunday Times, 7 November 2017).

Their average is 5.24%. Their average since Leo took over as Taoiseach is 5.07%.

Worryingly for them when it comes to Ipsos/MRBI Irish Times polls (generally the most accurate) they are flat lining on 4%.

Are they hold their vote where they have a high profile presence and losing what little was left in places where they got wiped out? Or is it a uniform drop across the country?

So let's take their average since Leo took over an apply it to a General Election while trying to factor in local jiggery pokery.

Brendan Howlin (Wexford)

A complete wet blanket as leader but bullet proof in Wexford. Ivan Yates has described Wexford as a four seater plus Brendan Howlin.

In 2016 he topped the poll on 14.8%. Apply the opinion poll drop to this (i.e. from 6.6% to 5.07%) this falls to 11.37%. Not ideal but enough to hold his seat. 2016 also indicates he doesn't suffer as much as the rest of the party when the vote falls.

So despite the dog fight in the offing in Wexford with Mythen (SF) pushing hard the call is - Elected.

Alan Kelly (Tipperary)

No fence shaped dents in his arse. Polarises opinion. Scraped home last time out in a dog of a 5 seater on 9.9% of the FPV largely thanks to FG being beyond woeful.

Even holding his vote from last time he needs a break in his favour. Tom Hayes maybe but definitely someone from FG is likely to take a seat. On the upside he reputedly is much better local operator than many of the his colleagues in the Dáil and might possibly be leader by the time the GE happens.

This is a 50/50 call. Is Seamus Healy certain to run? If not what does that do? Does the north/south divide make it irrelevant? Seamus Morris has quit SF. Does he run again? If not do those Nenagh votes push Kelly over the line?

Huge uncertainty and it wouldn't surprise if he romped home. But as things stand I think is may be a sad face in the count centre this time.

AK47 - Lost.

Jan O'Sullivan (Limerick City)

11.2% in a four seater last time out taking the last seat by 338 votes from Kieran O'Donnell (FG). In a word... fúcked.

So for Jan - Lost.

Joan Burton (Dublin West)

15.4% in a four seater last time out. Made it by about a 1,000 votes to take the last seat ahead of Paul Donnelly (SF).

Local stuff. Varadkar. He's likely to increase his vote and will probably take a few from her in the process pushing her down the field and into the fight. Add the impact of a national downswing and I think she's goosed. If she runs (she'll be 70 next year).

So for Joan (sorry BB) - Lost.

Willie Penrose (Longford-Westmeath)

Formerly a poll topper but the last man to make it to dry land anywhere in the country in 2016 with 8.7% in a five seater down from almost 19.8% in 2011 and 17.6% in 2007. Was likely hit hard last time by a late U-turn after being impressed upon by the party to run again rather than retire. If he's decided to go again he'll go wholehearted and win. Without Penrose the seat is gone. With nothing to base this hunch on I think he's going to retire.

So Willie is - Lost (retired).

Brendan Ryan (Dublin Fingal)

If you don't live local he's Brendan Who? Made it home with relative ease on 10% of the FPV last time even though that was half his 2011 vote. A resurgent FG is the main threat to him next time out. I would have marked him as relatively safe but I'm having my doubts. It'll probably be two from him, SF and the second FG candidate next time out. If FG get their act together I can see him being squeezed out.

So Ryan is - Lost.

Ged Nash (Louth)

The only possible gain that I can see at the moment. Lost out by 400 votes last time on 7.32% (down from 12.6% in 2011) and by rights shouldn't be coming back. But... Gerry Adams is retiring and SF may struggle to retain 29% of the vote. He's young, he's still very active locally (so it has been said) and I think he may be the one to buck the trend. I didn't give Kelly a tight call and one of these two might break their way.

So Ged is in - Elected.

Sean Sherlock (Cork East)

Made it home without a sweat on 13.2% last time. Might dip a little but I think he'll be safe.

Sean is in - Elected.

Others

Jack O'Connor. Aodhán Ó Ríordáin. Impossible? No. Highly unlikely? Yes.

So this exercise in pointless speculation and half baked rumours that posters who are from those constituencies will call out as bóllocks while eating my tea has me coming up with 3 seats for Labour assuming one of Nash or Kelly makes it and Penrose hangs up his boots. If this happens they are, well... fúcked.
 


ShoutingIsLeadership

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Joined
Jan 17, 2011
Messages
49,730
Labour needs Alan Kelly as leader, immediately.

Jack O'Connor might take a seat in Wickla.

Without Kelly as leader, it's dead.
 

Analyzer

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Joined
Feb 14, 2011
Messages
45,623
The ISIS Times is not going to rescue the Looper Party, no matter how hard it tries - because it is losing relevance.

PRAVDA-rte need to get the finger out.
 

sadmal

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Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
12,064
Labour needs Alan Kelly as leader, immediately.

Jack O'Connor might take a seat in Wickla.

Without Kelly as leader, it's dead.
I think Alan Kelly is doing the best he can to be the next leader. Keeping in the public eye and all that. His behaviour at the last election count was really embarrassing and didn't do him any favours IMO.
 

ShoutingIsLeadership

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Joined
Jan 17, 2011
Messages
49,730
I think Alan Kelly is doing the best he can to be the next leader. Keeping in the public eye and all that. His behaviour at the last election count was really embarrassing and didn't do him any favours IMO.
But you noticed
 

Analyzer

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Joined
Feb 14, 2011
Messages
45,623
Amadan O Reardawn will probably get lots of media coverage in the run up to the next election.

All based on his attention seeking, virtue signalling antics in a body that he wanted abolished, before he ended up there. The Seanad.

Sublime irony, there.
 

im axeled

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Joined
Nov 24, 2010
Messages
29,289
the stickies will have some pension money after the next election, if the put the same energy into running the country as they have in pension garning, they would not be fckued
 

Interestedhopeful

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Joined
Jan 5, 2018
Messages
349
The ISIS Times is not going to rescue the Looper Party, no matter how hard it tries - because it is losing relevance.

PRAVDA-rte need to get the finger out.
Why worry? If they disintegrate there will be cheer from the furthest margins of the far right across all the way to the margins of the far left.

Seeing those polls, Justin Barrett and the National Party could nearly poll higher than Labour.
 

Hitchcock

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Joined
Nov 17, 2012
Messages
8,771
There is little difference politically between Kelly and Howlin, they are both quite right wing. Kelly has more energy and puts himself about a bit more, he has been boosted recently by his 'work' on the McCabe saga, a section of the media have facilitated this despite his avoidance of the issue when he was a Minister.

Labour are f@cked and Kelly won't rescue them, that doesn't mean they will disappear completely but I don't see them recovering to say 10-15 seats even in the long term.
 

jmcc

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Joined
Jun 12, 2004
Messages
42,359
Ged Nash (Louth)
He's young, he's still very active locally (so it has been said) and I think he may be the one to buck the trend.
He looks about 60 or so. Not so sure that he would be elected as he's too Deefer/Bacik SJW rather than Labour.
 

Dame_Enda

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Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
53,666
I think Labour are on the way out. They have tried to rebuild in Opposition, but that is likely to hurt them with FG lower preferences. We saw how FF transfers to the PDs collapsed in 2007 after the in-again/out-again shenaningans from the latter about leaving Coalition.

The European Left are in a period of transition and Identity Crisis. They are trying to reconcile traditional concern for the working classes with support for US style Identity Politics. When it comes to immigration the two conflict because of competition for low skilled labour. At the same time their former monopoly on cultural liberalism is being challenged by the likes of Leo Varadkar and Micheal Martin with their apparent pro-choice stance.
 

midlander12

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 29, 2008
Messages
5,835
Labour are sick. We all know that. The question is whether it's terminal. And a lot depends on whether they come out the far side of the next GE as a viable entity or whether they are in PD post-2007 territory where everyone apart from the diehards in the party saw the game was up.

So let's put on our nerd pants (no girls were going to be interested in you tonight anyway) and look at numbers.

In the 2016 General Election labour polled 6.6% of the first preference vote. Outliers like 1992 and 2011 aside their long term trends was always in and around the 10% mark. So the starting point of this cycle saw one third of their core vote having abandoned them.

Since the last general election there has been 49 opinion polls. They don't make for happy reading.

Their best figure is 8% (Millward Brown/Sunday Indo, 26/10/2016).

Their worst was just 3% (B&A/Sunday Times, 9 November 2016 and B&A/Sunday Times, 7 November 2017).

Their average is 5.24%. Their average since Leo took over as Taoiseach is 5.07%.

Worryingly for them when it comes to Ipsos/MRBI Irish Times polls (generally the most accurate) they are flat lining on 4%.

Are they hold their vote where they have a high profile presence and losing what little was left in places where they got wiped out? Or is it a uniform drop across the country?

So let's take their average since Leo took over an apply it to a General Election while trying to factor in local jiggery pokery.

Brendan Howlin (Wexford)

A complete wet blanket as leader but bullet proof in Wexford. Ivan Yates has described Wexford as a four seater plus Brendan Howlin.

In 2016 he topped the poll on 14.8%. Apply the opinion poll drop to this (i.e. from 6.6% to 5.07%) this falls to 11.37%. Not ideal but enough to hold his seat. 2016 also indicates he doesn't suffer as much as the rest of the party when the vote falls.

So despite the dog fight in the offing in Wexford with Mythen (SF) pushing hard the call is - Elected.

Alan Kelly (Tipperary)

No fence shaped dents in his arse. Polarises opinion. Scraped home last time out in a dog of a 5 seater on 9.9% of the FPV largely thanks to FG being beyond woeful.

Even holding his vote from last time he needs a break in his favour. Tom Hayes maybe but definitely someone from FG is likely to take a seat. On the upside he reputedly is much better local operator than many of the his colleagues in the Dáil and might possibly be leader by the time the GE happens.

This is a 50/50 call. Is Seamus Healy certain to run? If not what does that do? Does the north/south divide make it irrelevant? Seamus Morris has quit SF. Does he run again? If not do those Nenagh votes push Kelly over the line?

Huge uncertainty and it wouldn't surprise if he romped home. But as things stand I think is may be a sad face in the count centre this time.

AK47 - Lost.

Jan O'Sullivan (Limerick City)

11.2% in a four seater last time out taking the last seat by 338 votes from Kieran O'Donnell (FG). In a word... fúcked.

So for Jan - Lost.

Joan Burton (Dublin West)

15.4% in a four seater last time out. Made it by about a 1,000 votes to take the last seat ahead of Paul Donnelly (SF).

Local stuff. Varadkar. He's likely to increase his vote and will probably take a few from her in the process pushing her down the field and into the fight. Add the impact of a national downswing and I think she's goosed. If she runs (she'll be 70 next year).

So for Joan (sorry BB) - Lost.

Willie Penrose (Longford-Westmeath)

Formerly a poll topper but the last man to make it to dry land anywhere in the country in 2016 with 8.7% in a five seater down from almost 19.8% in 2011 and 17.6% in 2007. Was likely hit hard last time by a late U-turn after being impressed upon by the party to run again rather than retire. If he's decided to go again he'll go wholehearted and win. Without Penrose the seat is gone. With nothing to base this hunch on I think he's going to retire.

So Willie is - Lost (retired).

Brendan Ryan (Dublin Fingal)

If you don't live local he's Brendan Who? Made it home with relative ease on 10% of the FPV last time even though that was half his 2011 vote. A resurgent FG is the main threat to him next time out. I would have marked him as relatively safe but I'm having my doubts. It'll probably be two from him, SF and the second FG candidate next time out. If FG get their act together I can see him being squeezed out.

So Ryan is - Lost.

Ged Nash (Louth)

The only possible gain that I can see at the moment. Lost out by 400 votes last time on 7.32% (down from 12.6% in 2011) and by rights shouldn't be coming back. But... Gerry Adams is retiring and SF may struggle to retain 29% of the vote. He's young, he's still very active locally (so it has been said) and I think he may be the one to buck the trend. I didn't give Kelly a tight call and one of these two might break their way.

So Ged is in - Elected.

Sean Sherlock (Cork East)

Made it home without a sweat on 13.2% last time. Might dip a little but I think he'll be safe.

Sean is in - Elected.

Others

Jack O'Connor. Aodhán Ó Ríordáin. Impossible? No. Highly unlikely? Yes.

So this exercise in pointless speculation and half baked rumours that posters who are from those constituencies will call out as bóllocks while eating my tea has me coming up with 3 seats for Labour assuming one of Nash or Kelly makes it and Penrose hangs up his boots. If this happens they are, well... fúcked.
Personally I would have thought those that managed to cling on the last time should do so again, if they run. I would be surprised if Kelly did not get back - SF have managed to 'lose' their candidate there and Healy could well be the one to lose out this time. Again in Longford-Westmeath SF have mislaid Paul Hogan and I think Penrose will get back if he runs. I agree O'Sullivan is probably gone but I think Burton will benefit from Varadkar's transfers, again if she runs. I think Howlin, Ryan and Sherlock will also be reelected and that Nash has a middling chance of pipping the second SF seat in Louth. So 6-7 in my view, depending on how many of them run again.
 

General Urko

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 24, 2012
Messages
15,683
I think Labour are on the way out. They have tried to rebuild in Opposition, but that is likely to hurt them with FG lower preferences. We saw how FF transfers to the PDs collapsed in 2007 after the in-again/out-again shenaningans from the latter about leaving Coalition.

The European Left are in a period of transition and Identity Crisis. They are trying to reconcile traditional concern for the working classes with support for US style Identity Politics. When it comes to immigration the two conflict because of competition for low skilled labour. At the same time their former monopoly on cultural liberalism is being challenged by the likes of Leo Varadkar and Micheal Martin with their apparent pro-choice stance.
May be they will be subsumed by The Social Dems!
 

glandore

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 15, 2010
Messages
861
People would have more respect for the LP if they started behaving like a Labour party. Whatever people think of Corbyn, at least people know where he stands on issues. (Except Brexit)
 

Catalpast

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 17, 2012
Messages
25,560
Joan is running allright:

Just announced:

In the sitting room of her home in Cabra, Burton says she has moved on. She confirms that she will be running again for Dublin West in the next general election, championing Labour women candidates she wants to help over the line, and plans to campaign in support of the referendum on the Eight Amendment.
https://www.independent.ie/irish-new...-36446929.html

That pretty well blows it for Paul Donnelly!

I expect he will not now be chosen to run again in this Constituency

But what's Bad news for him will almost certainly good news for SFs Natalie Treacy* who would be in far better position to chase the womens vote next time out in a 3 way race between Burton, Coppinger and herself....

* http://www.sinnfein.ie/natalie-tracey

http://www.politics.ie/forum/elections/233479-ge-2016-dublin-west-311.html
 

devoutcapitalist

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 26, 2013
Messages
16,437
People would have more respect for the LP if they started behaving like a Labour party. Whatever people think of Corbyn, at least people know where he stands on issues. (Except Brexit)
Gilmore was spouting populist left wing drivel from late 2008-early 2011 when Labour were in opposition, he was quickly found out as a spoofer when Labour went into government.

Would you like Labour to return to spouting such garbage again under either Howlin or Kelly?
 


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