Labour after the next General Election

enuffisenuff

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Sep 27, 2011
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3,436
I wish I could put this another way but the Labour party can f*ck right off no matter who is leading them....Frankfurt's way and expensive smartphones forever!!
 


gijoe

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Jul 26, 2010
Messages
15,219
Labour are only certain to win Howlin's seat. They really could comeback with just the one seat at which point they will cease to exist in reality as their funding will be miniscule.
 

jmcc

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Jun 12, 2004
Messages
42,504
He certainly would not look out of place in FF, he'd certainly add a bit of passion to Labour.
Labour needs Kelly more than Howlin. When Howlin was doing his yap-yap act with the thug Noonan on an RTE election programme, it showed how utterly subservient and useless Howlin was as leadership material.
 

glandore

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Sep 15, 2010
Messages
861
Gilmore was spouting populist left wing drivel from late 2008-early 2011 when Labour were in opposition, he was quickly found out as a spoofer when Labour went into government.

Would you like Labour to return to spouting such garbage again under either Howlin or Kelly?
I would like in a democracy to have a strong left wing alternative to a right wing capitalist party like FG.
 

Catalpast

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Messages
25,560
I would like in a democracy to have a strong left wing alternative to a right wing capitalist party like FG.
We have not got an authentic Left Wing Party in this Country North or South

- but we have a gamut of ones who pretend they are....
 

Zapslaststand

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@daxxdrake
At least Labour can celebrate the one hundredth anniversary of one of their impressive choices this year...:rolleyes:

The Labour Party, led by Thomas Johnson from 1917,[17] as successor to such organisations as D. D. Sheehan's (independent Labour MPs) Irish Land and Labour Association, declined to contest the 1918 general election, in order to allow the election to take the form of a plebiscite on Ireland's constitutional status (although some candidates did run in Belfast constituencies under the Labour banner against Unionist candidates).[18] It also refrained from contesting the 1921 elections. As a result, the party was left outside Dáil Éireann during the vital years of the independence struggle, though Johnson sat in the First Dáil.

extract from the page on Wikipedia's entry on the Labour Party Ireland accessed today.
 

devoutcapitalist

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I would like in a democracy to have a strong left wing alternative to a right wing capitalist party like FG.
You didn't answer my question. Did you approve of all the populist nonsense Gilmore was plucking out of his arse between late 2008-early 2011?
 

Plebian

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Feb 20, 2011
Messages
9,254
Labour's predicament is quite a conundrum. I don't share the pessimism about their ability to attract the same vote as in 2016. I do however acknowledge that they seem to lack the ability to field enough candidates who could gather most of the potential Labour vote at the next election.

If they could field the exact same candidates at the next GE as they did in the last one then they'd be on safe ground. If any of their TDs decide to retire or to not make enough effort to retain their seats then Labour's fate is grim.

Much will depend on the timing of the next GE. If FG or FF decide to force an election before Labour has renewed itself in the 2019 Locals then Labour's fate will be resting in the hands of the likes of Willie Penrose and Jan O'Sullivan. Both characters would need to put in some serious effort to retain their existing seats because on 2016s results they barely made it.


On the plus side for Labour, they should do much better on transfers at the next election than in the previous one. They have a few candidates like Kevin Humphreys in Dublin Bay South who could quite possibly take a seat this time after failing by a few hundred votes to win a seat in 2016.
 

Dame_Enda

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Dec 14, 2011
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They are little more than a retirement home for ex-Socialists.
 

Hitchcock

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Nov 17, 2012
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8,779
We have not got an authentic Left Wing Party in this Country North or South

- but we have a gamut of ones who pretend they are....
By 'authentic' you mean anti migrant of course :roll:
 

statsman

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Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
55,055
Labour are sick. We all know that. The question is whether it's terminal. And a lot depends on whether they come out the far side of the next GE as a viable entity or whether they are in PD post-2007 territory where everyone apart from the diehards in the party saw the game was up.

So let's put on our nerd pants (no girls were going to be interested in you tonight anyway) and look at numbers.

In the 2016 General Election labour polled 6.6% of the first preference vote. Outliers like 1992 and 2011 aside their long term trends was always in and around the 10% mark. So the starting point of this cycle saw one third of their core vote having abandoned them.

Since the last general election there has been 49 opinion polls. They don't make for happy reading.

Their best figure is 8% (Millward Brown/Sunday Indo, 26/10/2016).

Their worst was just 3% (B&A/Sunday Times, 9 November 2016 and B&A/Sunday Times, 7 November 2017).

Their average is 5.24%. Their average since Leo took over as Taoiseach is 5.07%.

Worryingly for them when it comes to Ipsos/MRBI Irish Times polls (generally the most accurate) they are flat lining on 4%.

Are they hold their vote where they have a high profile presence and losing what little was left in places where they got wiped out? Or is it a uniform drop across the country?

So let's take their average since Leo took over an apply it to a General Election while trying to factor in local jiggery pokery.

Brendan Howlin (Wexford)

A complete wet blanket as leader but bullet proof in Wexford. Ivan Yates has described Wexford as a four seater plus Brendan Howlin.

In 2016 he topped the poll on 14.8%. Apply the opinion poll drop to this (i.e. from 6.6% to 5.07%) this falls to 11.37%. Not ideal but enough to hold his seat. 2016 also indicates he doesn't suffer as much as the rest of the party when the vote falls.

So despite the dog fight in the offing in Wexford with Mythen (SF) pushing hard the call is - Elected.

Alan Kelly (Tipperary)

No fence shaped dents in his arse. Polarises opinion. Scraped home last time out in a dog of a 5 seater on 9.9% of the FPV largely thanks to FG being beyond woeful.

Even holding his vote from last time he needs a break in his favour. Tom Hayes maybe but definitely someone from FG is likely to take a seat. On the upside he reputedly is much better local operator than many of the his colleagues in the Dáil and might possibly be leader by the time the GE happens.

This is a 50/50 call. Is Seamus Healy certain to run? If not what does that do? Does the north/south divide make it irrelevant? Seamus Morris has quit SF. Does he run again? If not do those Nenagh votes push Kelly over the line?

Huge uncertainty and it wouldn't surprise if he romped home. But as things stand I think is may be a sad face in the count centre this time.

AK47 - Lost.

Jan O'Sullivan (Limerick City)

11.2% in a four seater last time out taking the last seat by 338 votes from Kieran O'Donnell (FG). In a word... fúcked.

So for Jan - Lost.

Joan Burton (Dublin West)

15.4% in a four seater last time out. Made it by about a 1,000 votes to take the last seat ahead of Paul Donnelly (SF).

Local stuff. Varadkar. He's likely to increase his vote and will probably take a few from her in the process pushing her down the field and into the fight. Add the impact of a national downswing and I think she's goosed. If she runs (she'll be 70 next year).

So for Joan (sorry BB) - Lost.

Willie Penrose (Longford-Westmeath)

Formerly a poll topper but the last man to make it to dry land anywhere in the country in 2016 with 8.7% in a five seater down from almost 19.8% in 2011 and 17.6% in 2007. Was likely hit hard last time by a late U-turn after being impressed upon by the party to run again rather than retire. If he's decided to go again he'll go wholehearted and win. Without Penrose the seat is gone. With nothing to base this hunch on I think he's going to retire.

So Willie is - Lost (retired).

Brendan Ryan (Dublin Fingal)

If you don't live local he's Brendan Who? Made it home with relative ease on 10% of the FPV last time even though that was half his 2011 vote. A resurgent FG is the main threat to him next time out. I would have marked him as relatively safe but I'm having my doubts. It'll probably be two from him, SF and the second FG candidate next time out. If FG get their act together I can see him being squeezed out.

So Ryan is - Lost.

Ged Nash (Louth)

The only possible gain that I can see at the moment. Lost out by 400 votes last time on 7.32% (down from 12.6% in 2011) and by rights shouldn't be coming back. But... Gerry Adams is retiring and SF may struggle to retain 29% of the vote. He's young, he's still very active locally (so it has been said) and I think he may be the one to buck the trend. I didn't give Kelly a tight call and one of these two might break their way.

So Ged is in - Elected.

Sean Sherlock (Cork East)

Made it home without a sweat on 13.2% last time. Might dip a little but I think he'll be safe.

Sean is in - Elected.

Others

Jack O'Connor. Aodhán Ó Ríordáin. Impossible? No. Highly unlikely? Yes.

So this exercise in pointless speculation and half baked rumours that posters who are from those constituencies will call out as bóllocks while eating my tea has me coming up with 3 seats for Labour assuming one of Nash or Kelly makes it and Penrose hangs up his boots. If this happens they are, well... fúcked.
If they return 3/4 TDs, they might yet survive. Anything less than that and they are gone.

Don't rule out AK47 just yet.
 

glandore

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Joined
Sep 15, 2010
Messages
861
You didn't answer my question. Did you approve of all the populist nonsense Gilmore was plucking out of his arse between late 2008-early 2011?
Gilmore was never a socialist and did feck all for left wing causes. Yes he was talking nonsense but I would have been more left wing than him.
 

Uganda

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Joined
Aug 17, 2013
Messages
9,567
Labour are sick. We all know that. The question is whether it's terminal. And a lot depends on whether they come out the far side of the next GE as a viable entity or whether they are in PD post-2007 territory where everyone apart from the diehards in the party saw the game was up.

So let's put on our nerd pants (no girls were going to be interested in you tonight anyway) and look at numbers.

In the 2016 General Election labour polled 6.6% of the first preference vote. Outliers like 1992 and 2011 aside their long term trends was always in and around the 10% mark. So the starting point of this cycle saw one third of their core vote having abandoned them.

Since the last general election there has been 49 opinion polls. They don't make for happy reading.

Their best figure is 8% (Millward Brown/Sunday Indo, 26/10/2016).

Their worst was just 3% (B&A/Sunday Times, 9 November 2016 and B&A/Sunday Times, 7 November 2017).

Their average is 5.24%. Their average since Leo took over as Taoiseach is 5.07%.

Worryingly for them when it comes to Ipsos/MRBI Irish Times polls (generally the most accurate) they are flat lining on 4%.

Are they hold their vote where they have a high profile presence and losing what little was left in places where they got wiped out? Or is it a uniform drop across the country?

So let's take their average since Leo took over an apply it to a General Election while trying to factor in local jiggery pokery.

Brendan Howlin (Wexford)

A complete wet blanket as leader but bullet proof in Wexford. Ivan Yates has described Wexford as a four seater plus Brendan Howlin.

In 2016 he topped the poll on 14.8%. Apply the opinion poll drop to this (i.e. from 6.6% to 5.07%) this falls to 11.37%. Not ideal but enough to hold his seat. 2016 also indicates he doesn't suffer as much as the rest of the party when the vote falls.

So despite the dog fight in the offing in Wexford with Mythen (SF) pushing hard the call is - Elected.

Alan Kelly (Tipperary)

No fence shaped dents in his arse. Polarises opinion. Scraped home last time out in a dog of a 5 seater on 9.9% of the FPV largely thanks to FG being beyond woeful.

Even holding his vote from last time he needs a break in his favour. Tom Hayes maybe but definitely someone from FG is likely to take a seat. On the upside he reputedly is much better local operator than many of the his colleagues in the Dáil and might possibly be leader by the time the GE happens.

This is a 50/50 call. Is Seamus Healy certain to run? If not what does that do? Does the north/south divide make it irrelevant? Seamus Morris has quit SF. Does he run again? If not do those Nenagh votes push Kelly over the line?

Huge uncertainty and it wouldn't surprise if he romped home. But as things stand I think is may be a sad face in the count centre this time.

AK47 - Lost.

Jan O'Sullivan (Limerick City)

11.2% in a four seater last time out taking the last seat by 338 votes from Kieran O'Donnell (FG). In a word... fúcked.

So for Jan - Lost.

Joan Burton (Dublin West)

15.4% in a four seater last time out. Made it by about a 1,000 votes to take the last seat ahead of Paul Donnelly (SF).

Local stuff. Varadkar. He's likely to increase his vote and will probably take a few from her in the process pushing her down the field and into the fight. Add the impact of a national downswing and I think she's goosed. If she runs (she'll be 70 next year).

So for Joan (sorry BB) - Lost.

Willie Penrose (Longford-Westmeath)

Formerly a poll topper but the last man to make it to dry land anywhere in the country in 2016 with 8.7% in a five seater down from almost 19.8% in 2011 and 17.6% in 2007. Was likely hit hard last time by a late U-turn after being impressed upon by the party to run again rather than retire. If he's decided to go again he'll go wholehearted and win. Without Penrose the seat is gone. With nothing to base this hunch on I think he's going to retire.

So Willie is - Lost (retired).

Brendan Ryan (Dublin Fingal)

If you don't live local he's Brendan Who? Made it home with relative ease on 10% of the FPV last time even though that was half his 2011 vote. A resurgent FG is the main threat to him next time out. I would have marked him as relatively safe but I'm having my doubts. It'll probably be two from him, SF and the second FG candidate next time out. If FG get their act together I can see him being squeezed out.

So Ryan is - Lost.

Ged Nash (Louth)

The only possible gain that I can see at the moment. Lost out by 400 votes last time on 7.32% (down from 12.6% in 2011) and by rights shouldn't be coming back. But... Gerry Adams is retiring and SF may struggle to retain 29% of the vote. He's young, he's still very active locally (so it has been said) and I think he may be the one to buck the trend. I didn't give Kelly a tight call and one of these two might break their way.

So Ged is in - Elected.

Sean Sherlock (Cork East)

Made it home without a sweat on 13.2% last time. Might dip a little but I think he'll be safe.

Sean is in - Elected.

Others

Jack O'Connor. Aodhán Ó Ríordáin. Impossible? No. Highly unlikely? Yes.

So this exercise in pointless speculation and half baked rumours that posters who are from those constituencies will call out as bóllocks while eating my tea has me coming up with 3 seats for Labour assuming one of Nash or Kelly makes it and Penrose hangs up his boots. If this happens they are, well... fúcked.
On a (very) good day they would have

Howlin
Kelly
Burton - could get transfers from Leo
Pen rose - if he runs
Nash ( with Adams gone the SF vote will reduce and they will struggle to hold 2)
Sherlock
O Riordan
O'connor ( he will do well in Kildare south - his sons are well stitched into Gaa there, but as cc is there also might prove a challenge.)

So a good, (best?) day -8.
 

DJP

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
12,824
Website
darrenjprior.blogspot.com
Twitter
https://twitter.com/DarrenJPrior
Is Kathleen Lynch going to stand again?

I would like to see:
Alan Kelly
Kathleen Lynch
Jan O'Sullivan and
Joe Costello

get in again. I have no desire to see any of their other candidates get in.
 

hiding behind a poster

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
48,461
Labour are sick. We all know that. The question is whether it's terminal. And a lot depends on whether they come out the far side of the next GE as a viable entity or whether they are in PD post-2007 territory where everyone apart from the diehards in the party saw the game was up.

So let's put on our nerd pants (no girls were going to be interested in you tonight anyway) and look at numbers.

In the 2016 General Election labour polled 6.6% of the first preference vote. Outliers like 1992 and 2011 aside their long term trends was always in and around the 10% mark. So the starting point of this cycle saw one third of their core vote having abandoned them.

Since the last general election there has been 49 opinion polls. They don't make for happy reading.

Their best figure is 8% (Millward Brown/Sunday Indo, 26/10/2016).

Their worst was just 3% (B&A/Sunday Times, 9 November 2016 and B&A/Sunday Times, 7 November 2017).

Their average is 5.24%. Their average since Leo took over as Taoiseach is 5.07%.

Worryingly for them when it comes to Ipsos/MRBI Irish Times polls (generally the most accurate) they are flat lining on 4%.

Are they hold their vote where they have a high profile presence and losing what little was left in places where they got wiped out? Or is it a uniform drop across the country?

So let's take their average since Leo took over an apply it to a General Election while trying to factor in local jiggery pokery.

Brendan Howlin (Wexford)

A complete wet blanket as leader but bullet proof in Wexford. Ivan Yates has described Wexford as a four seater plus Brendan Howlin.

In 2016 he topped the poll on 14.8%. Apply the opinion poll drop to this (i.e. from 6.6% to 5.07%) this falls to 11.37%. Not ideal but enough to hold his seat. 2016 also indicates he doesn't suffer as much as the rest of the party when the vote falls.

So despite the dog fight in the offing in Wexford with Mythen (SF) pushing hard the call is - Elected.

Alan Kelly (Tipperary)

No fence shaped dents in his arse. Polarises opinion. Scraped home last time out in a dog of a 5 seater on 9.9% of the FPV largely thanks to FG being beyond woeful.

Even holding his vote from last time he needs a break in his favour. Tom Hayes maybe but definitely someone from FG is likely to take a seat. On the upside he reputedly is much better local operator than many of the his colleagues in the Dáil and might possibly be leader by the time the GE happens.

This is a 50/50 call. Is Seamus Healy certain to run? If not what does that do? Does the north/south divide make it irrelevant? Seamus Morris has quit SF. Does he run again? If not do those Nenagh votes push Kelly over the line?

Huge uncertainty and it wouldn't surprise if he romped home. But as things stand I think is may be a sad face in the count centre this time.

AK47 - Lost.

Jan O'Sullivan (Limerick City)

11.2% in a four seater last time out taking the last seat by 338 votes from Kieran O'Donnell (FG). In a word... fúcked.

So for Jan - Lost.

Joan Burton (Dublin West)

15.4% in a four seater last time out. Made it by about a 1,000 votes to take the last seat ahead of Paul Donnelly (SF).

Local stuff. Varadkar. He's likely to increase his vote and will probably take a few from her in the process pushing her down the field and into the fight. Add the impact of a national downswing and I think she's goosed. If she runs (she'll be 70 next year).

So for Joan (sorry BB) - Lost.

Willie Penrose (Longford-Westmeath)

Formerly a poll topper but the last man to make it to dry land anywhere in the country in 2016 with 8.7% in a five seater down from almost 19.8% in 2011 and 17.6% in 2007. Was likely hit hard last time by a late U-turn after being impressed upon by the party to run again rather than retire. If he's decided to go again he'll go wholehearted and win. Without Penrose the seat is gone. With nothing to base this hunch on I think he's going to retire.

So Willie is - Lost (retired).

Brendan Ryan (Dublin Fingal)

If you don't live local he's Brendan Who? Made it home with relative ease on 10% of the FPV last time even though that was half his 2011 vote. A resurgent FG is the main threat to him next time out. I would have marked him as relatively safe but I'm having my doubts. It'll probably be two from him, SF and the second FG candidate next time out. If FG get their act together I can see him being squeezed out.

So Ryan is - Lost.

Ged Nash (Louth)

The only possible gain that I can see at the moment. Lost out by 400 votes last time on 7.32% (down from 12.6% in 2011) and by rights shouldn't be coming back. But... Gerry Adams is retiring and SF may struggle to retain 29% of the vote. He's young, he's still very active locally (so it has been said) and I think he may be the one to buck the trend. I didn't give Kelly a tight call and one of these two might break their way.

So Ged is in - Elected.

Sean Sherlock (Cork East)

Made it home without a sweat on 13.2% last time. Might dip a little but I think he'll be safe.

Sean is in - Elected.

Others

Jack O'Connor. Aodhán Ó Ríordáin. Impossible? No. Highly unlikely? Yes.

So this exercise in pointless speculation and half baked rumours that posters who are from those constituencies will call out as bóllocks while eating my tea has me coming up with 3 seats for Labour assuming one of Nash or Kelly makes it and Penrose hangs up his boots. If this happens they are, well... fúcked.
Obviously there's a fair bit of speculation about the final seats in any constituency, but I'd take issue with one or two points. Specifically if Burton runs I think she'll win, as Leo as Taoiseach will mean a big bounce for FG, but probably not enough to win a second seat. In that scenario all she has to do is stay ahead of the second FG candidate, and then late in the count a lot of FG votes will come back into play and elect her. As you say Ged Nash has a good chance, but I'd give Kelly a better chance of holding on than Sean Sherlock, though Sherlock could well make it if the SF implosion in Cork East continues. As in several constituencies, the threat to him is a resurgent FG, whose second candidate could sneak ahead of him. Finally, one you didn't mention is Dun Laoghaire, which has always been strong Labour country, and goes from an effective three-seater to a four next time. FG will be targetting it for a third seat and will have a chance, but again if they don't they could give thousands of votes to Labour near the end. Also in Dublin Bay North FG will gain votes but not necessarily a second seat, so there could be votes to help Aodhan there too (though I think if FG select Bruton and Flanagan then they may well win two and squeeze Labour out)
 


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