Labour poll in Dublin SE shows Quinn, Humphreys, Creighton & Andrews taking seats

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Member of the Politics.ie Church and excellent blogger Dotski blogged a little little earlier about someone in the Labour party leaking an internal poll for Dublin South East to him.

The poll shows Ruairi Quinn and Kevin Humphreys taking seats for Labour, Lucinda Creighton holding her seat for Fine Gael, and Fianna Fail's Chris Andrews holding on and keeping his seat. Quinn vote comes in around 30% according to dotski's blog.

FG's Eoghan Murphy won't be happy, nor will Minister for the Environment John Gormley who's expected to lose his seat at the next General Election - Dotski reports on his blog that Gormley's vote is so low it "apparently is in the margin of error".

I'm sure dotski will be along shortly for answer any questions! ;)

Labour Poll in Dublin SE « Irish Polling Report
 


anewbeginning

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There is no way Gormley can get re-elected, nor a number of other Greens.

Indeed the Dail careers of many GP members appear to be over, and they have little chance of getting nominated to the Seanad.

A big price to pay for a few years propping up FF.
 

LiberalFG

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Dam, I was hoping for Eoghan Murphy to steal Lucinda's seat.
 

redhead101

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Every time I see a reference to an 'internal poll' the alarm bells start ringing.
 

fool

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We can afford internal polls? That's a serious sign of improvement.
 

White Horse

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Two out for four seats for the party of ordinary workers in Ireland's wealthiest constituency?

They must be impressed at how the Gillmores got over half a million euros from a small school for a piece of bogland in the west of Ireland.
 

QuizMaster

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Well if they can't get 20 in Dublin there will be no Gilmore Gale and they will remain in 3rd place.
 

dotski_w_

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A leaked poll from Labour, showing Labour doing well?
I'm a little dubious of it myself, as it shows LP doing better than in my spreadsheet (although my source is well placed) it would appear that Gormley's vote would have gone en bloc to LP, which sounds unlikely, as it would be on top of the national GP-to-LP vote already being picked up in the national polls

As I say, my spreadsheet assumes a "leaders bounce" for Gormley, and if something reliable came out corroborating this (say an internal from another party) I'd probably remove that 'tweak') but for now I'll not be changing anything.

Interesting though ..... needless to say, if anyone has more details, I'd be very interested.
 

Reality bites

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FG's Eoghan Murphy won't be happy, nor will Minister for the Environment John Gormley who's expected to lose his seat at the next General Election - Dotski reports on his blog that Gormley's vote is so low it "apparently is in the margin of error".

I'm sure dotski will be along shortly for answer any questions! ;)

Labour Poll in Dublin SE « Irish Polling Report
i heard Gormley was doing ok actually in the previous FG & FF polls in DSE. i wouldn't believe any leaked internal figures.

if labour did a poll it would just be localised sampling to see how vote transfers and split would be doing. there is no way labour party has resources to do a proper constituency poll with good sample and proper demographic spltis
 

locke

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How come I am referred to as a FG poster in dotski's blog?

I voted for Labour in the last two GEs.

But I'm more of a swing voter than anything else.

And I'm pretty certain that HBAP doesn't think of me as a FG poster.
 

dotski_w_

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Two out for four seats for the party of ordinary workers in Ireland's wealthiest constituency?

They must be impressed at how the Gillmores got over half a million euros from a small school for a piece of bogland in the west of Ireland.
(a) you clearly know little of DSE. SE Inner City is one of the most deprived areas in the country.

(b) height of the boom someone gets that for 2.5 acres they inherit from their mum? I suspect most ppl aren't as amazed by that as you are.
 

dotski_w_

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How come I am referred to as a FG poster in dotski's blog?

I voted for Labour in the last two GEs.

But I'm more of a swing voter than anything else.

And I'm pretty certain that HBAP doesn't think of me as a FG poster.
Sorry will change that, I had understood from previous posts that you are a FG voter.
 

Oldira1

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(a) you clearly know little of DSE. SE Inner City is one of the most deprived areas in the country.

(b) height of the boom someone gets that for 2.5 acres they inherit from their mum? I suspect most ppl aren't as amazed by that as you are.
At the height of the boom agricultural land would only have fetched about €20k an acre. Anything more than that was for its 'development potential'....


Incidentally how did Eamon Gilmore vote on the Carrickmines/Jackson Way rezoning? Just a question...not implying anything sinister.
 

d7bohs

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Two out for four seats for the party of ordinary workers in Ireland's wealthiest constituency?
Is it?

I would have thought Dublin South might take that honour. Even if it is, large bits of it aren't wealthy: Ringsend, Irishtown, Pearse St, City Quay, the flats in Charlemont St. all belie the cliched image. None of the Dublin constituencies are as homogeneous as people like to pretend: Dublin Central has a middle class component, and there are large public housing estates in Dun Laoghaire.
 

Limestone

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I remember a DSE poll released on prime time just before the 2002 election with Chris Andrews on top. At the election itself, he didn't come close to winning a seat. It's a very volatile constituency but this time around Labour must be in with a chance of winning a second seat from the Greens. On the basis of previous elections FG should give them a good run for it.
 

sic transit

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Two out for four seats for the party of ordinary workers in Ireland's wealthiest constituency?

They must be impressed at how the Gillmores got over half a million euros from a small school for a piece of bogland in the west of Ireland.
This is one of those nice stories that FF will store away for the election to throw back at the purer than white Gilmore. It's the little things, as they say, that can make the difference.
 


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