Laois-Offaly internal poll

FutureTaoiseach

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Reported today in the Sunday Independent. Conclusions:

Cowen to be elected on first count with 45% of Offaly votes. His vote in Laois has collapsed.
Moloney and Fleming on 3,500 1st preferences each.
John Foley on just 2,000 1st preferences.
SF's Brian Stanley and Labour's John Whelan likely to be elected.

Discuss.
 


rockofcashel

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Is the Sindo claiming 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab and 1 SF?
The problem for FF here is that Cowen will get too many FPV's as the "Offaly man done wrong", and he'll leave the others too far back.. they're definitely going to lose one.. FG haven't the numbers for 3, and Stanley just needs to beat the Labour candidate, who he is starting 2,500 votes ahead of on the 2007 figures.. and he's smack bang in the middle of the biggest urban centre in the constituency .. don't worry about Flanagan, FG and SF voters are mutually exclusive
 

Biffomania

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Reported today in the Sunday Independent. Conclusions:

Cowen to be elected on first count with 45% of Offaly votes. His vote in Laois has collapsed.
Moloney and Fleming on 3,500 1st preferences each.
John Foley on just 2,000 1st preferences.
SF's Brian Stanley and Labour's John Whelan likely to be elected.

Discuss.
WHAT?????........even after everything Clowen has done to the nation, not to mention his carousing sessions at our our expense at the height of the never-ending crises, after all that, the most hated and damaging and divisive political leader in the history of the state, the unmitigated eejit who singlehandedly has brought FF into the abyss.............he'll still get 45% of the Offaly vote????

After the election we need to immediately erect an electric fence around Offaly and turn it into Europe's biggest safari park for the endangered species of uniquely Irish chimps, baboons, orang-utans and other simian types. We dare not let them escape and breed anywhere outside Offaly.
 

hammer

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God Bless the Offaly people for being such gobbers.

Was it that BIFFO brought a new sportshall to the county or the new underutilised FAS office? How is unemployment in Offaly. Up I would say :(

What about the ambulance service ?

Did he fix a few pot holes.

Offaly people would better grow up fast as an ELECTORATE aand stop voting for a person that helped destroy an ECONOMY :(
 

QuizMaster

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FG used to get 3 here, in the olden days. But with Enright retiring I guess there's no chance.

Everywhere I look, SF are being mentioned as being in with a chance. What's going on? We'll have to think of a name for it. The Adams Avalanche or something.
 

LgCastell

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if FF go back with one here nationally we could be looking at FF total of no more than 30 seats
 

biteback

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A lot of that 45% is probably dependent on Cowen being leader at the time of the election though. After all the failures and mistakes, I want him to be leader but most FF backbenchers don't.
 

dotski_w_

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if FF go back with one here nationally we could be looking at FF total of no more than 30 seats
It'd be worse than that - even with my projections I gave them 2 seats here, and that was with 14 nationally (although with 33% so no votes to spare).

While I suppose it's possible that Whelan would be a game changer, I only see 1 left seat here (and it's SF based on the last RedC) - I suspect given the odd mix of details involved that this may be an attempt to persuade 1 of the 2 FF Laois TDs to 'retire' as that's the biggest threat to them holding the second seat.
 

gijoe

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if FF go back with one here nationally we could be looking at FF total of no more than 30 seats
More like a maximum of 20. If the commuter belt has turned against them to that extent then virtually every 3 and 4 seater on the Eastern seaboard will not have an FF TD.
 

Keith-M

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Looking at the numbers on that report, there are two FF quotas, they just need to manage the vote. Right now all that's certain is 1FF and 1FG, then perm three from FF,FG,LP and SF. FG will transfer better to LP. FF just need to control their transfers. The one thing I will say is that the FF vote is now down to the hardcore and those are the voters most likely to religeously go down the FF ticket. Right now I'd call it 2FF, 2FG and 1LP.
 

corporal punishment

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WHAT?????........even after everything Clowen has done to the nation, not to mention his carousing sessions at our our expense at the height of the never-ending crises, after all that, the most hated and damaging and divisive political leader in the history of the state, the unmitigated eejit who singlehandedly has brought FF into the abyss.............he'll still get 45% of the Offaly vote????

After the election we need to immediately erect an electric fence around Offaly and turn it into Europe's biggest safari park for the endangered species of uniquely Irish chimps, baboons, orang-utans and other simian types. We dare not let them escape and breed anywhere outside Offaly.
I've been saying it for years. I remember about 20 or more years ago the Phoenix printed a map of Ireland. Where Offaly is they just said " here be bogmen ".
 

gijoe

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Looking at the numbers on that report, there are two FF quotas, they just need to manage the vote. Right now all that's certain is 1FF and 1FG, then perm three from FF,FG,LP and SF. FG will transfer better to LP. FF just need to control their transfers. The one thing I will say is that the FF vote is now down to the hardcore and those are the voters most likely to religeously go down the FF ticket. Right now I'd call it 2FF, 2FG and 1LP.
Laois/Offaly quota could by 11-12k, Cowen's surplus will disburse in all directions and Foley's votes will go to other Offaly candidates ahead of the Laois FFers - that is how with 2 quotas and 4 candidates FF could end up with 1 seat. 2 FG seats is a foregone conclusion with a constituency carve up on a county basis. For FF to retain a 2nd seat they need to hold off one of Labour/SF.
 


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