Laois Offaly next GE - predictions?

Bertie's Hat

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The Laois and Offaly constituencies are merging back together to form a five seater.

Current TDs in Laois=
Sean Fleming FF
Brian Stanley SF
Charlie Flanagan FG

Current TDs in Offaly=
Barry Cowen FF
Marcella Corcoran Kennedy FG
Carol Nolan SF

Probably only one seat for SF here. FG may scrape in for the last seat but Flanagan could be in trouble.

John Leahy might have a decent shot at a seat here.

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Rocket Man

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FF will hold their two.

FG and SF will take 1 each and scrap it out for the last.

If FG lose out, then it will likely be MCK who will go not Flanagan.

Leahy's chance is probably gone due to the merger.
 

Bertie's Hat

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FF will hold their two.

FG and SF will take 1 each and scrap it out for the last.

If FG lose out, then it will likely be MCK who will go not Flanagan.

Leahy's chance is probably gone due to the merger.
Do you think Leahy has a chance if FG fortunes decline and SF struggle to pick up enough support for two seats?

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PBP voter

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As things stand it's 2 FF 2 FG 1 SF

But it's wouldn't be a surprise if an indo suddenly got momentum and grabbed a seat.

It can happen in any const.
 

hollandia

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We'll be in a better position to know if there is a poll released at the weekend.
 

PO'Neill

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I'd say 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF. Seán Fleming to top the poll.
 

OldHat

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From 2016,......... FF ~ 2 quotas........ FG ~ 1.65 and SF ~ 1.0

Unless there are some big swings nationally which doesnt appear likely, this could be the most predictable constituency in the country.
 

hollandia

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I'd say 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF. Seán Fleming to top the poll.
It'll tight between him and Cowan. There's nowhere near enough for SF to return 2 here. But there is a decent possibility of 3FF,1 FG and 1 SF, but that's dependent on polling closer to the time.
 

hammer

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Who gives a toss.

Offaly is my least favourite county in Ireland.

3 X FF would prove it beyond doubt.
 

Fullforward

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As things stand it's 2 FF 2 FG 1 SF

But it's wouldn't be a surprise if an indo suddenly got momentum and grabbed a seat.

It can happen in any const.
The Indos will suffer the backlash that every small bit player in Government does, even if they are not part of it, welcome to Ireland.
 

PO'Neill

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From 2016,......... FF ~ 2 quotas........ FG ~ 1.65 and SF ~ 1.0

Unless there are some big swings nationally which doesnt appear likely, this could be the most predictable constituency in the country.
Anyone know if Renua's John Leahy will be running :) Did ok in in Offaly coming 5th on 6,588 with Indos Joe Hannigan 5,816 and John Foley 4,536 behind him. An outside chance of an Indo or second SFer (Carol Nolan) making it.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offaly_(Dáil_Éireann_constituency)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laois_(Dáil_Éireann_constituency)
 

PBP voter

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The Indos will suffer the backlash that every small bit player in Government does, even if they are not part of it, welcome to Ireland.
Not always the case.

Indos had 6 seats in 1997. Some of them helped prop up the government.

Then the next election they went up to 13.

The PDs gained 4 seats in the same election.
 

mangaire2

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Who gives a toss.

Offaly is my least favourite county in Ireland.

3 X FF would prove it beyond doubt.
no county could be as bad as Mayo, which returned 4 Blueshirts in 2011.
is definitely my least favourite county of the 32.

they don't deserve to win the All Ireland.
 

DaveM

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Anyone know if Renua's John Leahy will be running :) Did ok in in Offaly coming 5th on 6,588 with Indos Joe Hannigan 5,816 and John Foley 4,536 behind him. An outside chance of an Indo or second SFer (Carol Nolan) making it.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offaly_(Dáil_Éireann_constituency)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laois_(Dáil_Éireann_constituency)
You'd have to assume Leahy will run. He's the leader of Renua now so if he doesn't then they certainly have shut up shop. I'd say his ship has sailed though. Probably would have made it as an independent last time out. The Renua brand was a weight around his neck and now with the recombined constituency his chances look further diminished still.
 

Fullforward

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You'd have to assume Leahy will run. He's the leader of Renua now so if he doesn't then they certainly have shut up shop. I'd say his ship has sailed though. Probably would have made it as an independent last time out. The Renua brand was a weight around his neck and now with the recombined constituency his chances look further diminished still.
He will have to run and a few others too if they want to get their payday to keep the circus on the road.
 

wiseowl

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for sure, there will be 2ff(cowen and fleming), 1fg and 1sf.

there is zero chance of 2sfs returning.

the last seat may get interesting. I detect confidence within ff that they can wrestle the final seat as fg look weak in offaly.

what may materialise, is that at the finish it will be a tight call between fg2 and ff3, with the left over sf votes possibly deciding the outcome. they are likely to favour ff...so 3ff, 1fg and 1sf may be the result.
independents have a very poor record in this constituency.
 

the secretary

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2FF 2FG 1SF
FG would need to keep and eye on their 2nd seat but should be okay.
SF certain to loose a seat here. Stanleys seat is safe.
 


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