Laois Offaly next GE - predictions?

Bertie's Hat

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Is Leahy well liked and high profile enough in Offaly let alone Laois?
Will the fact that he is now Renua leader give him a boost?

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Baron von Biffo

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Laois/Offaly is almost re-united for this election though a chunk of Laois and a bit of Offaly is being hived off to Kildare.

Last time the two counties were 3 seaters but the new constituency has just 5 so 1 sitting TD faces the chop. The likelihood is that lacklustre former SF deputy Carol Nolan who's running as an independent will be getting the P45.

Cowen and Fleming of FF are certain to retain their seats as is Stanley of SF. If there's any serious swing against the government it might see FG drop a seat, most likely Corcoran-Kennedy, but as of now I'd say FG will retain both.

Perhaps the only interesting thing here is that Labour can't even field a candidate.

Their 2011 strategy of parachuting in John Whelan, the former Brian Cowen worshipping editor of the Leinster Express, succeeded only in destroying the local party organisation (such as it was).

Prediction: FG 2 FF 2 SF 1
 

Baron von Biffo

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I've just heard that Cllr. Noel Tuohy will be standing for Labour. Nothing on their site to confirm that as of 5 minutes ago.

He's a nice guy and he did well to get on the council but he hasn't a hope of a Dail seat.
 

Bill E Bunter

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Cowen, Fleming, Stanley all certs.
Flanagan has done his best to make himself deeply unpopular but I assume he has enough of a core vote to return.
I think the last seat could be very interesting. Corcoran Kennedy is very anonymous and the FG tag may not be a huge help to her in getting floating votes. Hard to see Nolan returning without the SF party machine (such as it is).
So there's one up for grabs possibly.
Leahy is very popular in Offaly but virtually unknown in Laois. Noel Tuohy is, as pointed out a nice fella, but Labour is in a mess. The Green candidate Senator Pippa Hackett is an interesting one. Could poll very well.
As for the possibility of a third FF seat for Ormond or Pauline Flanagan? Ms Flanagan couldn't land a council seat last year so hard to see her improve on that. I know very little about Ormond but surely FF can hardly pull off three seats out of five?
 

sage

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FG had their chance but didnt do any work in the constituency, have been anonymous in Offaly while lording it up in Dublin, Leahy SF and `FF have been working on the ground and will do very well
 

Baron von Biffo

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Cowen, Fleming, Stanley all certs.
Flanagan has done his best to make himself deeply unpopular but I assume he has enough of a core vote to return.
I think the last seat could be very interesting. Corcoran Kennedy is very anonymous and the FG tag may not be a huge help to her in getting floating votes. Hard to see Nolan returning without the SF party machine (such as it is).
So there's one up for grabs possibly.
Leahy is very popular in Offaly but virtually unknown in Laois. Noel Tuohy is, as pointed out a nice fella, but Labour is in a mess. The Green candidate Senator Pippa Hackett is an interesting one. Could poll very well.
As for the possibility of a third FF seat for Ormond or Pauline Flanagan? Ms Flanagan couldn't land a council seat last year so hard to see her improve on that. I know very little about Ormond but surely FF can hardly pull off three seats out of five?
If the polls are giving a true picture of FG support than Corcoran-Kennedy could be for the chop.

Were that to happen it's hard to see FF not picking up the seat. I think Flanagan is only a GQ so presumably Ormond would take the prize.
 

Bill E Bunter

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Was just thinking a little more about it last night. There are an awful lot more Offaly candidates than Laois ones and Corcoran Kennedy, Ormond, Hackett, Nolan and Leahy will all be fighting for a lot of the same first preferences.
Although Pauline Flanagan probably won't stand a chance, could she have more number ones than some of the aforementioned? Being Laois based may help her stay in the race longer than some of the others.
Paddy Power go 6-4 for Leahy and Corcoran Kennedy to be elected, 7-4 Nolan, 5-2 Ormond and 3-1 Hackett.
 

Baron von Biffo

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I hear other parties in Mountrath are drawing voter attention to SFs support for travellers at the moment.
 

Baron von Biffo

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Will Faulkner, journalist with Midlands radio 3 calling it 3 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF.

Ormond to get the third FF seat from FGs Corcoran-Kennedy.

Nolan also to get the chop which pretty much everyone but herself had pencilled in from the off.

Edit: Typo.
 
Last edited:

effer

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Will Faulkner, journalist with Midlands radio 3 calling it 3 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF.

Ormond to get the third FF seat from FGs Corcoran-Kennedy.

Nolan also to get the chop which pretty much everyone but herself had pencilled in from the off.

Edit: Typo.
Nolan getting the spillover from the SF because they only had one candidate here. Foolish mistake on SFs behalf to drop her. Though MCK in with a chance. Ff get no 3rd seat here- good. Leahy hasn't a chance. You'll have to eat those words about CN biffo.
 

Baron von Biffo

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Nolan getting the spillover from the SF because they only had one candidate here. Foolish mistake on SFs behalf to drop her. Though MCK in with a chance. Ff get no 3rd seat here- good. Leahy hasn't a chance. You'll have to eat those words about CN biffo.
It was a reasonable guess at the time. No one was thinking about two quotas for Stanley.
 

Dame_Enda

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RTE were saying Nolan likely to get seat.
 

effer

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Will Faulkner, journalist with Midlands radio 3 calling it 3 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF.

Ormond to get the third FF seat from FGs Corcoran-Kennedy.

Nolan also to get the chop which pretty much everyone but herself had pencilled in from the off.

Edit: Typo.
You only posted that on the 27 Jan. There was talk of a sf rise then.
 

Baron von Biffo

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You only posted that on the 27 Jan. There was talk of a sf rise then.
Up to ten o'clock last night there was no talk of the result that the exit poll would reveal.

I said from the outset, even when SF was getting trounced in election after election, that Stanley was a safe bet but no one expected him to pull in Brian Cowen levels of votes.

It's that massive surplus of his that's ripping up earlier predictions.
 


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