Last thread on Ireland's forthcoming economic train crash....

Malbekh

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....for a while, like say at least a year or two.

As per http://www.politics.ie/forum/economy/259214-impending-doom-ireland-what-can-done-about.html and
http://www.politics.ie/forum/economy/259235-removing-impending-doom-ireland-not-so-easy-steps.html diminishing returns will mean that posters get bored and move on. Nobody likes constant negativity in their faces.

But this isn't about P.ie posters and their uncanny ability to replicate our current political set-up by being - on the whole - capable of any serious level of introspection, debate and concerns for the nation. It's about making a statement in time based on a firm opinion, and then comparing and contrasting what happens as the future rolls by.

For this thread, we are going to concentrate on two very basic issues and simplify the message as much as possible. That way, it is easier for you, dear reader to understand. I don't expect to get an informed opinion or responses of merit, that would be asking too much, and for the usual suspects that want to derail the thread, please be my guest.

_______________________________________________

So again, but the most simplistic terms, pretty much every thread on here in relation to whatever crisis is the subject du jour are a waste of time. That's not to say having discussions on housing, health, education and social services are not worthy topics, rather than pretty much nothing can be done about it, other than various sticky plasters.

The reason for this is that we don't have enough money. This is largely due to having a €200 billion national debt, and having to pay €5 billion more per year to service it. €5 billion every year would go a long way to fixing our current issues.

Furthermore, there is no plan to reduce this debt, no plan to create a meaningful reserve to counter the next crash, and no political willingness to look at the drastic steps that are needed to resolve it.

Finally, this lack of money is only going to get worse, as we have pointed out, interest rates are guaranteed to go up at some stage, hence the repayment values, and are demographics over the next 30 years rank 10 on the scale negative impact.

In short, as the years go by, there will be less money generated by less people on one side, and on the other side, more people will become dependent on the state to maintain basic standards of living. When this happens, when you cannot tax a nation's people anymore (and we are close to that now), then you must cut services.

The real damage though will be done through a repressed economy thanks to Brexit and then the hammer blow we will face when the EU eventually start to redistribute the profits of multinationals to the countries where the sales come from, on a pro rata basis. For just as our economy crashed on an over-reliance on the housing sector, so does our current blueprint rely on the contribution these companies make to our economy.

I predict therefore, that Ireland of the 2030's will be much like Ireland of the 1950's with mass emigration of our brightest and best leaving to work in the wider EU, further exacerbating our economic stagnation as we become a cultural backwater of inward thinking pessimists.

Fear not however, in the 2050's, as climate change starts to have real and permanent effects on the world, the EU will increasingly use us as a collective farm to produce crops and deal with mass economic migration from areas in the EU and outside. We truly will become a multicultural country, although not on our terms.

_____________________________________________

So lastly, our other fatal issue is bedded in our political system. Even if we had politicians who were capable of looking into the future (which we do not), or were prepared to put country above party (which we do not), or at least, were prepared to be honest with the people (which we do not), none of them would be able to affect any change thanks to our political system.

Unless we decapitate the links between local and national politics, provide dual elections for local representatives and national parties, then every single politician, regardless of whether they are Michael Healy-Rae or Leo Varadkar, will be upholden to local politics.

If we as a nation, are incapable of birthing an entity as basic as Irish Water into being under the polluter pays principle, what chance to we have to deal with the far more complex and difficult decisions ahead?

Easy answer, we can't.

_____________________________________________________

So, see you around Ireland. If only we could have live up to our potential.
 


enuffisenuff

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on the nail!
 
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Don't worry. The brudder is all over this. He was up all night and didn't even look at the egg boiled for him by the landlady. Did I say say she's gone to her sister's place in Skerries for the weekend? On the train, yeah. Anyways, off with him this morning to Kildare Street to put what he calls "those gobdaws" in their place. Oh, yeah, he'll show dem and no mistaken' dat. De big stickin' point, he told me, was the V. A. T. rate. Oh, yes. The V. A. T.

Begobs, if dem feckers up in Kildare Street don't get rid of it we're goners. That's de brudder's view entirely. "Dem feckers in Brussels can grow up and take a bath in it" he said throough clenched teeth and un unlit pipe as he charged out.

The landlady had to lie down after that drama. What's that you say? Oh, he'll be up in the Molesworth bending the ear of the powers that be. What? Oh, yes, they'll be taking notes and will claim the credit when the crisis is finished. But, sure, he knows that anyway. Ah, here we go, the 21A. What, you're not getting on? Ah, sure, next time. . .
 

mr_anderson

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The reason for this is that we don't have enough money. This is largely due to having a €200 billion national debt, and having to pay €5 billion more per year to service it. €5 billion every year would go a long way to fixing our current issues.

1. Furthermore, there is no plan to reduce this debt, no plan to create a meaningful reserve to counter the next crash, and no political willingness to look at the drastic steps that are needed to resolve it.
...
2. I predict therefore, that Ireland of the 2030's will be much like Ireland of the 1950's with mass emigration of our brightest and best leaving to work in the wider EU, further exacerbating our economic stagnation as we become a cultural backwater of inward thinking pessimists.

3. So lastly, our other fatal issue is bedded in our political system. Even if we had politicians who were capable of looking into the future (which we do not), or were prepared to put country above party (which we do not), or at least, were prepared to be honest with the people (which we do not), none of them would be able to affect any change thanks to our political system.
I want to take you up on 3 points.

Firstly, I agree with point 1.
We had massive debt problems up to the late 1980's.
We were able to get out of this by growing the economy faster than accumulation of more debt.
But this was achieved by many once-off factors happening in sync, e.g. more women in work, collapse in interest rates & restructuring of taxation to benefit FDI (this was crucial in attracting sectors that boomed globally). The diminishing role of the church also played it's part.
Our ability to grow out of our debt is now far more of an uphill struggle.
The economy is much more mature and takes on a more sober tilt.
Large adjustments in our GDP now come more from accounting decisions than anything else.

2. I don't agree with you here.
Ireland's economy is now much more flexible than the past.
Furthermore, our labour force's ability to quickly adjust to changing markets puts us way ahead of our EU counterparts.
France is akin to the USSR when the issue of changes in working practices comes up.
We're light years ahead of them and many others.
Nevertheless, I concede that as the age of our workforce increases, this flexibility could reduce.

3. There's no point in blaming the politicians.
They are a product of our populace.
Too many voters want free & easy sweeties.
And they want them now.
Look at how deaf & blind the population is to the coming pension crisis.
They don't want to know. But the figures show how inevitable it all is.
A politician who stands on the soapbox of facing up to the pension crisis will lose to the politician who will increase social welfare & pension payments by €5 a week.
 

shiel

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I posted this for discussion some time ago and it was zooed.

I think the political system is not to blame.

The objective of politicians is to get into power.

It helps when the media are licking their arses or even when giving out to them give them loads of attention.

The American media cheer led the election of a representative of the misogynistic, arrogant, patriarchal and near totalitarian right to be president of the US by giving him overwhelming attention all day every day.

The British media cheer led not alone the possible disintegration of the EU but also the possible disintegration of the UK by a gutter press anti-EU campaign for decades.

The Irish media cheer led a virtual one party state government when they arse licked them as they were bankrupting the country during the pre-2009 celtic tiger times.

There does not seem to be going to be any change in any of that in the future.

So pessimism is indeed warranted.
 
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shiel

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The Nazis are back in the German parliament consequent on their media profile.
 

brughahaha

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Don't worry. The brudder is all over this. He was up all night and didn't even look at the egg boiled for him by the landlady. Did I say say she's gone to her sister's place in Skerries for the weekend? On the train, yeah. Anyways, off with him this morning to Kildare Street to put what he calls "those gobdaws" in their place. Oh, yeah, he'll show dem and no mistaken' dat. De big stickin' point, he told me, was the V. A. T. rate. Oh, yes. The V. A. T.

Begobs, if dem feckers up in Kildare Street don't get rid of it we're goners. That's de brudder's view entirely. "Dem feckers in Brussels can grow up and take a bath in it" he said throough clenched teeth and un unlit pipe as he charged out.

The landlady had to lie down after that drama. What's that you say? Oh, he'll be up in the Molesworth bending the ear of the powers that be. What? Oh, yes, they'll be taking notes and will claim the credit when the crisis is finished. But, sure, he knows that anyway. Ah, here we go, the 21A. What, you're not getting on? Ah, sure, next time. . .
Dont give up the day job or ever have any aspirations about writing ...adolescent crap
 

Man or Mouse

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Was the solution revealed in the last thread?

If not, will it happen in this one?
 

blokesbloke

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I posted this for discussion some time ago and it was zooed.

I think the political system is not to blame.

The objective of politicians is to get into power.

It helps when the media are licking their arses or even when giving out to them give them loads of attention.

The American media cheer led the election of a representative of the misogynistic, arrogant, patriarchal and near totalitarian right to be president of the US by giving him overwhelming attention all day every day.

The British media cheer led not alone the possible disintegration of the EU but also the possible disintegration of the UK by a gutter press anti-EU campaign for decades.

The Irish media cheer led a virtual one party state government when they arse licked them as they were bankrupting the country during the pre-2009 celtic tiger times.

There does not seem to be going to be any change in any of that in the future.

So your pessimism is warranted.
Do shut up, Shiel dear.
 

blokesbloke

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One of Shiels better posts though.

I agree with five of his eight sentences.

The first, of course.

Then four others.
I shall defer to you as I am very fond of you and trust your judgment implicitly.

Do carry on Shiel, but only for 5/8ths of the time.
 

Dearghoul

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*pats Dearghouls' head and gives a biscuit*
That was my best Sid James acturally, but to run with your Enda and Shorty scenario, would there be anything at all to be said for a more assertive Irish leadership in Economic terms...

...and four three two..we're back on thread.
 

Kevin Parlon

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Finally, this lack of money is only going to get worse
You're not wrong (I think) but you err in identifying money as our major future problem. All of Europe is in demographic decline at the precise moment when migration into the continent is at unprecedented highs. Of course; this is only really a problem if you regard European culture as being worthy of continued existence. Europe's future is to become Lebanon, writ large. Ireland's debt will seem a trifle in comparison to the decline and failure Europe is blindly embracing.
 

shiel

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You're not wrong (I think) but you err in identifying money as our major future problem. All of Europe is in demographic decline at the precise moment when migration into the continent is at unprecedented highs. Of course; this is only really a problem if you regard European culture as being worthy of continued existence. Europe's future is to become Lebanon, writ large. Ireland's debt will seem a trifle in comparison to the decline and failure Europe is blindly embracing.
European culture will never die.

The music of Mozart will live for ever. He died when he was 33.

The philosophy of Immanuel Kant will never be got rid of. He only began writing philosophical works when he was 60. He taught geography or something before that.
 

shiel

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Do shut up, Shiel dear.
NO.

The powerful have to be challenged.

When the government in celtic tiger times were being told by their media that they were the 'best and most responsible' and had won 'all the great battles on corruption and taxation' and that the 'opposition were as appetising as contracting the Ebola virus' it was bound to go to their heads.

Being human beings any of them were liable to get arrogant and reckess and do damage.

The pre-2009 celtic tiger governments caused a bankruptcy in 2010 which was three times worse than Greece which went burst in the same year.

But the point now is there is no excuse for the Irish media to repeat the mistakes of the celtic tiger era.

That is what they are doing.

Telling people to know their place and shut up is exactly what happened when there were objections to what was happening in celtic tiger times.

The ordinary citizens of this democratic republic continue to pay a high price for that celtic tiger attitude.

So this ordinary yob from the middle of the bog will not shut up.
 

McDave

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Interesting OP. Agree with a lot of it, including the systemic national failure of the €200 billion debt. A ludricous, self-imposed millstone. The C****c T***r was a sustained exercise in poor judgement by our politicians AND those who repeatedly elected them.

What's so sad is Kenny's FG's utter inability to prevent our economy lurching on to the same shambolic, inefficient path towards economic and social imbalance. There's not much Varadkar can do about it now people have to chase exorbitant prices again. We've learned nothing. All anyone who can do it is to grab what they can. The losers will be the middle-ground who want to do the right thing and pay their way, but who are caught between a rock and 30 or 40 year mortgages, and subsiding the lifestyles of more than a few too many non-contributors.
 


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