Latest seat projection based on betting odds

Keith-M

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It's almost six weks since I've done a seat projection based on the latest betting spreads on Paddy Power. Political Betting & Election Betting from Paddy Power

In those weeks we've had the bailout, the four year plan announcement., the DSW by-election and the Greens post dated resignation letter, as well as a Red C poll. Here's how the next Dails wil look, based on the latest spreads;

FF : 43 (were 52, when I last ran this model)
FG : 56 (54)
LP : 46 (48)
GP : 1 (4)
SF : 9 (8)
SP : 2 (2)
PBP: 1 (-)
Others : 8 (0)

As you can see there's been a general movement towards the lower ranges on FF and the Greens, with the others staying more or less where they were. However Labour are now projecting higher than FF for the first time.
 
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civilserpant

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The SF 9 is a bit high for me as is the 8 others, annd I think both FG and FF will be a few seats higher, but thats definitely in margin of error territory. Looks sorta right.
 

davehiggz

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I think we'll see FF below 40 but otherwise this looks pretty accurate. Sinn Féin will probably take 9 seats. The four they have, 2 in Donegal, Dublin South West, Dublin Central, and Dublin North East. Might even be more on a good day!
 

Panopticon

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Won't this be biased towards long-shots, like People Before Profit? I am sure you know about long-shot bias in bookmakers' odds.
 

Keith-M

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The SF 9 is a bit high for me as is the 8 others, annd I think both FG and FF will be a few seats higher, but thats definitely in margin of error territory. Looks sorta right.

Actually the one you don't mention (Labour) is the one I'd question most. I hink 46 is still too high. I think they may get to 40, but that's about it, especially after watching the DSW fiasco.

There are 9 potentials for SF (already listed) and 8 indies; TS (possibly 2), TN, KyS, DC, DNC, Ce, RsL and who knows what he odd hospital or local vested interest could throw up.
 

Panopticon

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There are ranges for each party, which converted from odds to possibility give you the spreads.
OK, that doesn't answer my question so. What adjustment do you make to weigh down the implied probability of long-shot outcomes? I understand that this does not affect some parties, but it does affect parties with non-symmetric probability distributions and parties where the upper and lower bounds enjoy relatively good odds ("censored data").
 

oggy

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The people of Ireland are going to give FG/Lab 102 seats and 64 to others ? A 38 seat majority ! FF with 43 seats facing 123 ABFF ?

What a nightmare scenario for the country !! Posters warning of this disaster should be printed and placed across the country !!

I am not slagging this is effing serious stuff
 

owedtojoy

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It's almost six weks since I've done a seat projection based on the latest betting spreads on Paddy Power. Political Betting & Election Betting from Paddy Power

In those weeks we've had the bailout, the four year plan announcement., the DSW by-election and the Greens post dated resignation letter, as well as a Red C poll. Here's how the next Dails wil look, based on the latest spreads;

FF : 43 (were 52, when I last ran this model)
FG : 56 (54)
LP : 46 (48)
GP : 1 (4)
SF : 9 (8)
SP : 2 (2)
PBP: 1 (-)
Others : 8 (0)

As you can see there's been a general movement towards the lower ranges on FF and the Greens, with the others staying more or less where they were. However Labour are now projecting higher than FF for the first time.
Unless Bill Gates and Warren Buffett die and leave their fortunes to Ireland, there does not seem to be much good out there for FF - the budget is yet to come.

Thought Sinn Fein would get more.

Expect FF to drop further ... mid-30s. FG, Lab, SF to pick up.

People are overestimating the ability of Labour and SF to pick up seats. They are hardly organised in some constituencies and even then, have not got a good pick of candidates. FG at least have some semblance of a national organisation to get out the vote. They will pick up lower transfers as they traditionally have - only this time more so because many FF candidates will be pushed down the selections.

Its going to be the old thing of "26 general elections on a single day".
 

Crannog

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The people of Ireland are going to give FG/Lab 102 seats and 64 to others ? A 38 seat majority ! FF with 43 seats facing 123 ABFF ?

What a nightmare scenario for the country !! Posters warning of this disaster should be printed and placed across the country !!

I am not slagging this is effing serious stuff
Ah poor FF dont you just feel sorry for them.
 

devnull

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The people of Ireland are going to give FG/Lab 102 seats and 64 to others ? A 38 seat majority ! FF with 43 seats facing 123 ABFF ?

What a nightmare scenario for the country !! Posters warning of this disaster should be printed and placed across the country !!

I am not slagging this is effing serious stuff
FF/Lab had 101 seats after the '92 election and Merkel's recent CDU/SDP coalition held three-quarters of the seats in the Bundestag.
Neither government was disastrous.
 

Trophonius

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It's almost six weks since I've done a seat projection based on the latest betting spreads on Paddy Power. Political Betting & Election Betting from Paddy Power

In those weeks we've had the bailout, the four year plan announcement., the DSW by-election and the Greens post dated resignation letter, as well as a Red C poll. Here's how the next Dails wil look, based on the latest spreads;

FF : 43 (were 52, when I last ran this model)
FG : 56 (54)
LP : 46 (48)
GP : 1 (4)
SF : 9 (8)
SP : 2 (2)
PBP: 1 (-)
Others : 8 (0)

As you can see there's been a general movement towards the lower ranges on FF and the Greens, with the others staying more or less where they were. However Labour are now projecting higher than FF for the first time.
If that's the projection your making form the spreads then I think the bookies are wrong (for a change). Too much for Labour and FF. Too little for FG, SF and ULA.

Based on Constituencies now, with a lot of personal vote getters not standing and popular opinion at the moment, and polling figures from the last election (including transfers and how SF are more transfer friendly now and FF less so), I predict the following:

FF: 37
FG: 69
LAB: 30
GP: 3
SF: 15
ULA: 4
IND: 8

FF to keep 7 seats in Dublin and I believe form my figures that they will have no seats in:

Dublin Central
Dublin North
Dublin North Central
Dublin North East
Dublin North West
Kerry North-Limerick West
Meath East
Tipperary North

Of course swings and roundabouts means that my figures may change by this time next week, but at this present moment in time, that's how I see it.
 

Keith-M

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OK, that doesn't answer my question so. What adjustment do you make to weigh down the implied probability of long-shot outcomes? I understand that this does not affect some parties, but it does affect parties with non-symmetric probability distributions and parties where the upper and lower bounds enjoy relatively good odds ("censored data").

I don't make any adjustment whatsoever. Yes, this gives a tiny advantaf to the micro parties but it's still probably more accurate that any kind of projection based on polls with a 3% error.
 

cathal201

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Nov 3, 2010
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The people of Ireland are going to give FG/Lab 102 seats and 64 to others ? A 38 seat majority ! FF with 43 seats facing 123 ABFF ?

What a nightmare scenario for the country !! Posters warning of this disaster should be printed and placed across the country !!

I am not slagging this is effing serious stuff
The people of Ireland are going to give Fianna Fail 43 seats?

What a nightmare someone go and warn the people of Ireland!!
 


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