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Leading commentator slams Fianna Fail recapitalisation plan

Parnella

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Jul 26, 2007
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Leading commentator slams Fianna Fail recapitalisation plan

Leading commentator slams bank recapitalisation plan | BreakingNews.ie

"They haven't been advised properly, or if they have, they haven't listened," he says.

Based on their recent history such as refusing to acknowledge ESRI reports since 2001 of a recession in their disgraceful attempts to be re-elected, I would say it is again a case of "they WON'T listen" but they will lie.

These Muppets MUST be sent packing.
 
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Daniel Carver

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Leading commentator slams Fianna Fail recapitalisation plan

Leading commentator slams bank recapitalisation plan | BreakingNews.ie

"They haven't been advised properly, or if they have, they haven't listened," he says.

Based on their recent history such as refusing to acknowledge ESRI reports since 2001 of a recession in their disgraceful attempts to be re-elected, I would say it is again a case of "they WON'T listen" but they will lie.

These Muppets MUST be sent packing.
Its too late now. Irrepreble damage has been done.

or as one of the muppets might say 'we are where we are'

I will assault the next person that spouts that out.... 'we are where we are'
 

Bobert

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Commentator is Brian Lucey.

I like him.
 

cHeal

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I will assault the next person that spouts that out.... 'we are where we are'
It's the "change of course" doctrine (Chomsky). Do whatever you want and when it all goes to ******************** plead ignorance, talk about having to deal with where we are now rather than looking at the mistakes of the past and promise you'll do it right this time.

The problem with this, is that the 'we are where we are' is pretty popular sentiment, nobody really sees the point in talking about the mistakes of the past. However Politicians use this sentiment to stifle debate on the past and hide the mal-intent of their actions.
 

He3

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We are where we are because they are where they are.
 

Daniel Carver

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It's the "change of course" doctrine (Chomsky). Do whatever you want and when it all goes to ******************** plead ignorance, talk about having to deal with where we are now rather than looking at the mistakes of the past and promise you'll do it right this time.

The problem with this, is that the 'we are where we are' is pretty popular sentiment, nobody really sees the point in talking about the mistakes of the past. However Politicians use this sentiment to stifle debate on the past and hide the mal-intent of their actions.
Will Chomsky fund my legal defence fund?

I have not read any of his writings but I am annoyed at this pathetic weasel 'we are where we are' yap constantly trotted out by Lenihan and Coughlan.

I guess Chomskys explanation is clearer and more cogniscant than my frustration at the great cover up and swindle thats going down right now.
 

carlovian

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Got to agree with comments re "we are where we are" from politicians and bankers who lead us into this mess.

FF took the credit for the boom and now its "International factors" to blame for the downturn not their mishandling of the economy.

And how the regulator and the heads of the banks are still in a job is beyond me.

But no point in recriminations, we are where we are !!!
 

Daniel Carver

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proposal

Politician: ' We are where we are '

Daniel's Response: ' I will Fv*k you up, like you deserve to be Fv*ked up '
 

edifice.

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8,325
Was there a freeze on any increase in Bank Charges to customers preventing the banks from merely passing on the annual dividend they are suppose to pay the government to the customer via stealth charges? Or is it the case that we will have to pay the charges for lending the banks our money?
 

adrem

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Yet, equally when politicians claimed credit for the boom we decried their claims said - the boom wasn't created by ye !! It was down to the people of Ireland with significant input from external factors. In fact any muppet could have presided over a boom given what was happening internationally at the time.

then when the bust comes and the politicians say it's largely down to external factors outside our control - we again decry their claims. It's not external factors, it was all down to the politicians !!

FF (and all the other major parties too) stoked the property bubble - mainly FF though because they were in power at the time. All politics (in Ireland anyway) is focussed on the short term - a flaw in our system that we don't want to deal with - so we encourage quick fixes, short termism and NIMBYist solutions to complex difficult problems.

Mr Lucey may well have a point but I'm not sure he would have been happy with anything other than the nationalisation of Anglo with it being wound down completely - what's that 2000 jobs gone? approximately.

The market seems to be welcoming the recapitalisation plan (albeit the view seems to be that Anglo is going to need more). I don't know what Mr Lucey wants but am always a little concerned with the hurler on the ditch - very easy to pass comment, not as easy to actually make the decisions and live with the consequences.
 

cactusflower

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Yet, equally when politicians claimed credit for the boom we decried their claims said - the boom wasn't created by ye !! It was down to the people of Ireland with significant input from external factors. In fact any muppet could have presided over a boom given what was happening internationally at the time.

then when the bust comes and the politicians say it's largely down to external factors outside our control - we again decry their claims. It's not external factors, it was all down to the politicians !!

FF (and all the other major parties too) stoked the property bubble - mainly FF though because they were in power at the time. All politics (in Ireland anyway) is focussed on the short term - a flaw in our system that we don't want to deal with - so we encourage quick fixes, short termism and NIMBYist solutions to complex difficult problems.

Mr Lucey may well have a point but I'm not sure he would have been happy with anything other than the nationalisation of Anglo with it being wound down completely - what's that 2000 jobs gone? approximately.

The market seems to be welcoming the recapitalisation plan (albeit the view seems to be that Anglo is going to need more). I don't know what Mr Lucey wants but am always a little concerned with the hurler on the ditch - very easy to pass comment, not as easy to actually make the decisions and live with the consequences.

In what sense does the Market welcome it? The commentary I've read suggests that we are putting funds into a "tiding over" operation. How can Anglo Irish, which is a limited operation based mainly on property lending, survive the coming years?

The recapitalisation is of course chained to the Guarantee, which is in turn chained around all of our necks.
 

Daniel Carver

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In what sense does the Market welcome it? The commentary I've read suggests that we are putting funds into a "tiding over" operation. How can Anglo Irish, which is a limited operation based mainly on property lending, survive the coming years?

The recapitalisation is of course chained to the Guarantee, which is in turn chained around all of our necks.
The assistance, past and to date, that has been showered upon Anglo Irish Bank is akin to keeping a death row prisoner on life support, following brain death due to stroke, so as the prisoner may be put to death, at a later date, but the governer of the jail does not know that there are yet to be further medical complications that will result in the prisoner dying prior to the execution date.

The above is not as mad as the actual madness that surrounds the bailout of this zombie operation.
 

He3

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Anglo is a developers bank. FF is a developers party.

It's not rocket science.
 

blucey

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Yet, equally when politicians claimed credit for the boom we decried their claims said - the boom wasn't created by ye !! It was down to the people of Ireland with significant input from external factors. In fact any muppet could have presided over a boom given what was happening internationally at the time.

then when the bust comes and the politicians say it's largely down to external factors outside our control - we again decry their claims. It's not external factors, it was all down to the politicians !!

FF (and all the other major parties too) stoked the property bubble - mainly FF though because they were in power at the time. All politics (in Ireland anyway) is focussed on the short term - a flaw in our system that we don't want to deal with - so we encourage quick fixes, short termism and NIMBYist solutions to complex difficult problems.

Mr Lucey may well have a point but I'm not sure he would have been happy with anything other than the nationalisation of Anglo with it being wound down completely - what's that 2000 jobs gone? approximately.

The market seems to be welcoming the recapitalisation plan (albeit the view seems to be that Anglo is going to need more). I don't know what Mr Lucey wants
but am always a little concerned with the hurler on the ditch - very easy to pass comment, not as easy to actually make the decisions and live with the consequences.
Adrem - would have posted this earlier but the ole hacking thingy .....
Frst, he had (along with others) been suggesting nationalsing and freezing it, not closing it.
Second, this was well discussed by him, Alan Ahearne and Joan bruton on Drivetime and on Today FM last night.
The market thinks the plan sucks btw...
 

He3

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Anglo is a developers bank. FF is a developers party.

It's not rocket science.
Prof Morgan Kelly takes up that theme today here in a long overdue article that we should cut out and frame:

Better to incinerate €1.5bn than squander it on Anglo Irish Bank - The Irish Times - Tue, Dec 23, 2008

FOR THE current Government, a month without a catastrophic policy error has come to seem like a month wasted. After the bank liability guarantee in September and the medical card fiasco in October, the Government had a quiet November but has now come roaring back to form with the bailout of Anglo Irish Bank. Attempting to recapitalise Anglo Irish is not only expensive and economically pointless, but futile.

Some simple arithmetic shows the hopelessness of what the Government is trying to do. In the typical property bust over the last 30 years, US banks have lost on average about 20 per cent of what they lent to developers.

Let us suppose that Anglo Irish is no more incompetent or dishonest than the average bank and will also lose up to 20 per cent of what is has lent.

Then, given lending of about €80 billion to developers, it follows that Anglo Irish is facing losses on the order of €15 billion. The true figure could easily turn out to be twice as large.

With likely losses of this magnitude, the Government's proposed investment of €1.5 billion will vaporise in months, forcing it either to continue pouring good money after bad, or to repudiate Anglo Irish's liabilities. For all it will achieve, the money might as well be piled up in St Stephen's Green and incinerated.


He goes on to outline the three phases a collapsing bank goes through. Read it.

Then have a little think about what Brian Cowen said on Morning Ireland today:

“Anglo-Irish continues to be an important commercial entity which has served the country and customers very well down the years in terms of commercial banking,” Mr Cowen told RTÉ’s Morning Ireland .

Something is seriously wrong with this picture.
 
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yehbut_nobut

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P...have a little think about what Brian Cowen said on Morning Ireland today:

“Anglo-Irish continues to be an important commercial entity which has served the country and customers very well down the years in terms of commercial banking,” Mr Cowen told RTÉ’s Morning Ireland .

Something is seriously wrong with this picture.
I have wondered about this - is it possible that there could be FF related banking business that can remain hidden while Anglo keeps going, but would come out into the open if they collapse?
 

Dillinger

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In what sense does the Market welcome it? The commentary I've read suggests that we are putting funds into a "tiding over" operation. How can Anglo Irish, which is a limited operation based mainly on property lending, survive the coming years?

The recapitalisation is of course chained to the Guarantee, which is in turn chained around all of our necks.

They have effectively chained us to their Builder Buddies, in the hope that we can stop them from sinking. This is the next stroke they are pulling to help the cronies, because telling us to keep buying houses didn't work too well.
 

He3

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I have wondered about this - is it possible that there could be FF related banking business that can remain hidden while Anglo keeps going, but would come out into the open if they collapse?
That is an interesting question.
 

He3

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Prof Morgan Kelly takes up that theme today here in a long overdue article that we should cut out and frame:

Better to incinerate €1.5bn than squander it on Anglo Irish Bank - The Irish Times - Tue, Dec 23, 2008

FOR THE current Government, a month without a catastrophic policy error has come to seem like a month wasted. After the bank liability guarantee in September and the medical card fiasco in October, the Government had a quiet November but has now come roaring back to form with the bailout of Anglo Irish Bank. Attempting to recapitalise Anglo Irish is not only expensive and economically pointless, but futile.

Some simple arithmetic shows the hopelessness of what the Government is trying to do. In the typical property bust over the last 30 years, US banks have lost on average about 20 per cent of what they lent to developers.

Let us suppose that Anglo Irish is no more incompetent or dishonest than the average bank and will also lose up to 20 per cent of what is has lent.

Then, given lending of about €80 billion to developers, it follows that Anglo Irish is facing losses on the order of €15 billion. The true figure could easily turn out to be twice as large.

With likely losses of this magnitude, the Government's proposed investment of €1.5 billion will vaporise in months, forcing it either to continue pouring good money after bad, or to repudiate Anglo Irish's liabilities. For all it will achieve, the money might as well be piled up in St Stephen's Green and incinerated.


He goes on to outline the three phases a collapsing bank goes through. Read it.

Then have a little think about what Brian Cowen said on Morning Ireland today:

“Anglo-Irish continues to be an important commercial entity which has served the country and customers very well down the years in terms of commercial banking,” Mr Cowen told RTÉ’s Morning Ireland .

Something is seriously wrong with this picture.
The original 2008 article by Kelly is available online again at the Times. They seem to have lifted this and some other articles of his from behind their archive pay wall, to accompany his written version of the UCD talk from last Friday.

Better to incinerate

He put the initial estimate of what it would cost us to keep Anglo going at 10x the government figure of €1.5bn, and said it could well go above his initial €15 billion in time. He was right of course.

"In the final stage, as the bank slides over the brink of collapse, senior managers loot its assets. Looting a bank involves nothing so unsubtle or easily traceable as driving away with carloads of cash.

Instead, each bank has a filing cabinet with personal guarantees written by borrowers and deeds to property pledged as collateral (large property deals involve surprisingly little paperwork); and these documents have a tendency to find their way into the briefcases of departing executives who can later negotiate their return to their original owners.

So much for the future. Right now, in the "nothing in the last six months has really happened" world of the Government, the bailout of Anglo Irish follows a compelling political logic. Anglo Irish funds developers, and developers fund Fianna Fáil.

By any other criterion, a bailout of Anglo Irish is senseless. ..."
 


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