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LE's 2019 ROI National Results Thread.

DJP

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I can't seem to find a thread on this site for the national results of the 2019 LE's in the ROI. We should know all the results by sometime tomorrow.

In the meantime, here are the figures for the LE's in the RTÉ exit poll and below that is a tweet with a rough estimate of the final national seat numbers based on that poll. It will be interesting to see the final results. Remember as well that LE's were held in NI a couple of weeks ago also, so the results of that have to be borne in mind in particular in relation to SF and to a (much) lesser extent the SDLP, the Green Party and a couple of the very small parties like PBP and Aontú.

RTÉ/RED C Exit POLL: Local Elections FG: 23%(-1) FF: 23%(-3) SF: 12%(-3) Greens: 9%(+7) Lab: 6%(-1) SD: 3%(+3) I4C: 2%(+1) S-PBP: 2%(-1) IA: 2%(+2) Aontú: 1%(+1) +/- vs. 2014 election Sample size: 3,000 (Via https://twitter.com/IrelandElects)

 


ainm_eile

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Some of SF’s support in 2014, especially in Dublin, were soft protest votes that have defected to the Greens this time around.

I expect that SF will lose seats in Dublin, but gain elsewhere through the usual slow and steady growth. SF’s overall tally won’t change much, but the distribution of their seats will.

The number of seats per constituency is less than back in 2014, you’ve gone from 8-10 seaters down to 5-7 seaters. So the lowest possible quota has gone from 9% up to 12.5%.

Labour will thus likely suffer many losses even if they manage 7.2% again. The Greens and SF will gain seats off Labour candidates getting eliminated early on.

At the very most, half of the SocDems’ vote will transfer to Labour IMHO, not much comfort from that direction. The rest will be fairly evenly divided between the Greens, SF, and PBP

RED C tends to over estimate FG. If they do as badly as they did in 2002 and get 22%, they would no longer be as certain of picking up two seats per constituency. It’s not impossible that FG get 21% given the MOE and RED C’s history of “adjustments”.

FF will likely do a bit better than the poll suggests, I don’t know how much better.
 
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petronius

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The Greens will get a bonus on transfers, with the high tide for them.
It is hard to deduct local seats based on national percentages.
Another bad day at the ballot box for Labour, and for Sinn Fein their protest vote has gone to the greens, left-leaning independents especially in euros.
The PBP/SOL will not gain and could lose ground...
 

Hitchcock

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It'll be interesting to see how this growth for the Greens affects the 'Left' - much of their growth seems to be coming at the expense of FF/FG. However, it was evident during the campaign that SF were struggling a little so I'd expect losses - the Soc Dems, Solidarity and PBPA may struggle a little too - the boundary changes haven't helped smaller parties.

If Labour were in any doubt about the crisis facing their party, today should confirm to them that they are seriously f"cked....so much for the 'green shoots' an array of commentators were talkng about after the IT poll.
 

MOSS1

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If the poll is right then 9% have actually voted for the Greens. Bear in mind they're not contesting every area or certainly not competitively. So where there is any sort of a Green presence their vote share is likely well above 9%.
 

Dame_Enda

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Renua leader Cllr John Leahy reportedly doing well according to RTE, as is Aontu leader Peadar Tobin's sister.
 

Dame_Enda

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RTE reporting FF outperforming the exit poll in the L.E.s.
 

PBP voter

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RTE reporting FF outperforming the exit poll in the L.E.s.
Always seems to happen.

In GE 2016 the two exit polls had them 1.4% and 3.2% less than they actually got.
 

General Urko

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Always seems to happen.

In GE 2016 the two exit polls had them 1.4% and 3.2% less than they actually got.
The Bradley Effect, nobody wants to public out themself in this context as redneck Gene pool!
 

General Urko

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Re 70 seats for The Greeners, do they even have that many candidates?
 

PBP voter

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Re 70 seats for The Greeners, do they even have that many candidates?
They could end up with a lot of candidates elected with 1.5+ quotas in the cities.

They may lose out on lots of seats because they didn't run a second candidate.
 

General Urko

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I'm disappointed with the Green vote . I can understand voting for them if you are -
A multimillionaire
A fookwit middle class imbecile
A D4 gobshyte
A naive child

Their policies in the past favoring diesel and abolishing bedsits have been proven insane.
They also collaborated in reducing the minimum wage, the bank guarantee and reducing the blind pension.
Eurogreens might be different but their lovely carbontaxes will disproportionately see working class ridden up the hole!
These ****z are not up to Senior hurling!
 

Dame_Enda

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Labour said to be doing well enough in Waterford where they used to have Halligan's current seat.
 

brughahaha

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I'm disappointed with the Green vote . I can understand voting for them if you are -
A multimillionaire
A fookwit middle class imbecile
A D4 gobshyte
A naive child

Their policies in the past favoring diesel and abolishing bedsits have been proven insane.
They also collaborated in reducing the minimum wage, the bank guarantee and reducing the blind pension.
Eurogreens might be different but their lovely carbontaxes will disproportionately see working class ridden up the hole!
These ****z are not up to Senior hurling!

Its an easy protest vote for the chattering classes.Greens will be votes solidly from the middle , disaffected Gaelers Failers and Red Tories ......

They would never vote for anything on the left so the Greens are a wonderfully socially aware vote, sweety sweety darling darling ,while offering absolutely no threat to the Irish middle classes and wannabes or the corrupt status quo.

But its a wrning shot across the bows of FF and FG (Labour are holed below the water line anyway) ....they would want to take heed

Oh and on the the upside, maybe the media will stop pretending we are all in awe of Leo
 


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