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Lets go full-on DOOMSTER :D .. The coming recession & Ireland PLC?

robut

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Apr 6, 2008
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8,756
[ FULL-ON DOOMSTER :D ]

A bit of tongue and cheek with maybe a sprinkle of slight concern but these 3 articles appeared on my Twitter timeline this morning:

Recession May Loom for Next U.S. President No Matter Who That Is - Bloomberg Politics

Talk about a poisoned chalice. No matter who is elected to the White House in November, the next president will probably face a recession.

The 83-month-old expansion is already the fourth-longest in more than 150 years and starting to show some signs of aging as corporate profits peak and wage pressures build. It also remains vulnerable to a shock because growth has been so feeble, averaging just about 2 percent since the last downturn ended in June 2009.
All the signs point to a new recession

But if we are staggering towards an overdue downturn, we will be doing so in far worse shape, and with far less scope to respond, than in 2007 and 2008. We faltered then, and borrowed to the hilt to recover. If we falter again, we may discover that Osborne’s ‘recovery’ was another debt-fuelled mirage. And the hard work of actually fixing the UK economy still lies ahead.

Italy must choose between the euro and its own economic survival

Italy is running out of economic time. Seven years into an ageing global expansion, the country is still stuck in debt-deflation and still grappling with a banking crisis that it cannot combat within the paralyzing constraints of monetary union.

.. The global window is closing in any case. US wage growth will probably force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and wild speculation will certainly force China to rein in its latest credit boom. Italy will enter the next downturn - perhaps early next year - with every macro-economic indicator in worse shape than in 2008, and half the country already near political revolt.

I started this thread only on foot of this morning getting these articles in my twitter stream a few times. It all seems to be emanating from the UK, so maybe tied in with the up and coming Brexit referendum, to plough the road so to speak for one particular agenda ( Telegraph, Spectator ). Common thing is the coming recession ..

So is all this hocus pocus rubbish that we here in the good ship Ireland PLC can ignore / should ignore?? Is it all just pure DOOMSTER Fodder that needs to be ignored & not given air time here or elsewhere?? Should we be concerned, even a little bit as we are an open economy very dependent on externals??

[/end FULL-ON DOOMSTER :D ]
 


hammer

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No good idea Robut.

Maybe focus all the p.ie doomsters on one thread rather than all threads.

So the sky is finally about to fall in.

Do we cancel all direct debits today to build up a buffer ?
 

robut

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8,756
No good idea Robut.

Maybe focus all the p.ie doomsters on one thread rather than all threads.

So the sky is finally about to fall in.

Do we cancel all direct debits today to build up a buffer ?
Technically, I wonder, are we in Recession v2.0 beta at the moment. Full production ready Recession v 2.0 will be along shortly :D

Interesting though that these just turned up on my twitter timeline this morning. Im not particularly following doomster type twitter accounts, just the usual world media accounts and the like.

So - my view wouldnt necessarily be doomstereeee but would be veering toward being concerned in a realistic mode. I wouldnt go as far as denying for the sake of same. Hope that Ireland PLC is hardened enough to weather any coming storms, however Italy doesnt seem to be in a great place for such events.
 

SamsonS

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Brexit, slow growth, China, interest rates, oil prices are all risks.

Economically one way of adjusting to that is not increase spending/reduce taxes now, particularly current spending. Looking at the Prog for Gov, and the election manifestos, this is not the position that is being taken or supported by TD's.

If we are to increase spending/cut taxes, maybe our targets for our deficit should be adjusted, ie aim for a balanced budget in 2016 and surplus in 2017, maybe .5-1% of GDP ?
 

ShinnerBot No.32564844524

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Dec 29, 2013
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4,142
The problem with doooming is it's hard to get the timing right, and unless you're the sort who enjoys hoarding gold, it's hard to stay DOOM-ON all the time.

There is one thing we can't escape however, we haven't experienced the first 2008 post-2008 recession and we have no idea how resilient the system is after the last time.

But for those claiming Greece's submission as a triumph....you may well truly regret your triumphalism when the structural design flaws of the Euro remerge as suggested by the Italy article in the OP. Should brexit happen, hold on to your anus.
 

Watcher2

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May 2, 2010
Messages
34,447
Technically, I wonder, are we in Recession v2.0 beta at the moment. Full production ready Recession v 2.0 will be along shortly :D

Interesting though that these just turned up on my twitter timeline this morning. Im not particularly following doomster type twitter accounts, just the usual world media accounts and the like.

So - my view wouldnt necessarily be doomstereeee but would be veering toward being concerned in a realistic mode. I wouldnt go as far as denying for the sake of same. Hope that Ireland PLC is hardened enough to weather any coming storms, however Italy doesnt seem to be in a great place for such events.
That's enough to be a doomster in hammers book. One must not question any good news story or talk about impeding difficulties.

You are a chicken licken. You even started a thread on it.

This is the level you are dealing with.
 

Watcher2

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Joined
May 2, 2010
Messages
34,447
[ FULL-ON DOOMSTER :D ]

A bit of tongue and cheek with maybe a sprinkle of slight concern but these 3 articles appeared on my Twitter timeline this morning:

Recession May Loom for Next U.S. President No Matter Who That Is - Bloomberg Politics

Talk about a poisoned chalice. No matter who is elected to the White House in November, the next president will probably face a recession.

The 83-month-old expansion is already the fourth-longest in more than 150 years and starting to show some signs of aging as corporate profits peak and wage pressures build. It also remains vulnerable to a shock because growth has been so feeble, averaging just about 2 percent since the last downturn ended in June 2009.
All the signs point to a new recession




Italy must choose between the euro and its own economic survival




I started this thread only on foot of this morning getting these articles in my twitter stream a few times. It all seems to be emanating from the UK, so maybe tied in with the up and coming Brexit referendum, to plough the road so to speak for one particular agenda ( Telegraph, Spectator ). Common thing is the coming recession ..

So is all this hocus pocus rubbish that we here in the good ship Ireland PLC can ignore / should ignore?? Is it all just pure DOOMSTER Fodder that needs to be ignored & not given air time here or elsewhere?? Should we be concerned, even a little bit as we are an open economy very dependent on externals??

[/end FULL-ON DOOMSTER :D ]
I was saving this one for johnny to dig himself in a bit more after he thought he had a challenge on as to whether I knew about any headwinds looming but I think i'll post here now anyway.

Global economy faces major headwinds in 2016
 

hammer

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That's enough to be a doomster in hammers book. One must not question any good news story or talk about impeding difficulties.

You are a chicken licken. You even started a thread on it.

This is the level you are dealing with.
Question any story you want but the doomsters only see doom.

There are loads of positives in Ireland its just the doomsters dont see both sides.
 

hammer

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Joined
Jul 6, 2009
Messages
58,513
Brexit, slow growth, China, interest rates, oil prices are all risks.

Economically one way of adjusting to that is not increase spending/reduce taxes now, particularly current spending. Looking at the Prog for Gov, and the election manifestos, this is not the position that is being taken or supported by TD's.

If we are to increase spending/cut taxes, maybe our targets for our deficit should be adjusted, ie aim for a balanced budget in 2016 and surplus in 2017, maybe .5-1% of GDP ?
Jaysus Samson if we have a surplus the doomsters will be demanding that we spend it.
 

Henry94.

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Mar 21, 2015
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1,953
Have we not learned anything from the last time we talked down the economy? Keep smiling for feck's sake or the whole thing could blow.
 

Watcher2

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Question any story you want but the doomsters only see doom.

There are loads of positives in Ireland its just the doomsters dont see both sides.
That's not the experience of you. ANY questioning and you shout chicken licken and doomsters r us. You know it.
 

LDF

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May 28, 2007
Messages
4,171
I was looking at CPI data for a side project recently. CPI was -0.3% for the year to end March but dig a little deeper and you'll see that almost everywhere the Irish state acts as provider or price regulator prices have gone up - taxi fares +4.1%, Education costs up, health costs up.

The figures go some way to prove that the adjustment we engaged in from 2008 was a fairly indiscriminate one void of any clear desire to implement structural reform.

Maybe we'll get it right at the next recession.
 

gerhard dengler

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Feb 3, 2011
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47,552
Whistling while walking past the graveyard has been the policy of the Eurozone since the crisis became public in 2008.

LTRO 1, LTRO 2, Quantitative Easing 1, 2, and 3, have all been tried.

The crisis of 2008 was seismic and the reverberations from it will take decades to address and resolve.

The real concern is : since 2008 has international capitalism put in place the correct measures to try to improve and restore economic health?
 

blokesbloke

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Jan 13, 2011
Messages
23,298
Away and leave the EU with us, you can get rid of those crappy yo-yos and reintroduce the punt, shure it'll be grand.
 

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