Limerick City: Call the next GE results

statsman

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With boundary changes and Noonan's retirement, the next GE in the city constituency strikes me as being wide open.

The only certainty is that O'Dea will be returned, hog the first prefs for FF and ensure that his partner is not elected.

You'd expect one of the two FG senators to win the 2nd seat, O'Donnell or Byrne? My money is on the latter.

That leaves 2 seats between O'Donnell, O'Sullivan, Quinlivan, Prendiville and Hennelly. The move of the Shannon Banks ward to Clare is bound to reduce vote share for Quinlivan and Prendiville, while the inclusion of Alan Kelly's stronghold around Birdhill may encourage both O'Sullivan and Hennelly. These changes may help explain Prendiville's recent attempts to move his support a bit towards the centre, but it's unlikely to be enough.

My own feeling is that FG will take a second seat, and the last seat will depend on the order of elimination, with the SF seat in danger, the Labour seat in danger, and the outcome being too close to call. Thoughts?
 


lastofthebohemians

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Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
I think O'Dea, O'Donnell, Byrne and Quinlivan. O'Sullivan's luck finally runs out.
 

statsman

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I think O'Dea, O'Donnell, Byrne and Quinlivan. O'Sullivan's luck finally runs out.
Probably, but Byrne will be elected before O'Donnell. I'm not entirely discounting Hennelly for the fourth seat, by the way. Shannon Banks is a huge loss for SF.
 

hollandia

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Who's going to pick up Casey's anti traveller ball and run with it, stats. I understand that limerick's proximity to Rathkeale would make this a hot topic down there?
 

statsman

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Who's going to pick up Casey's anti traveller ball and run with it, stats. I understand that limerick's proximity to Rathkeale would make this a hot topic down there?
That's bee the County constituency. I don't see it playing in the City much; I mean, are SF or the Alphabets going to play that card? O'Dea might but he doesn't need the votes. O'Donnell, Byrne, O'Sullivan and Hennelly won't.
 

Vega1447

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With boundary changes and Noonan's retirement, the next GE in the city constituency strikes me as being wide open.

The only certainty is that O'Dea will be returned, hog the first prefs for FF and ensure that his partner is not elected.

You'd expect one of the two FG senators to win the 2nd seat, O'Donnell or Byrne? My money is on the latter.

That leaves 2 seats between O'Donnell, O'Sullivan, Quinlivan, Prendiville and Hennelly. The move of the Shannon Banks ward to Clare is bound to reduce vote share for Quinlivan and Prendiville, while the inclusion of Alan Kelly's stronghold around Birdhill may encourage both O'Sullivan and Hennelly. These changes may help explain Prendiville's recent attempts to move his support a bit towards the centre, but it's unlikely to be enough.

My own feeling is that FG will take a second seat, and the last seat will depend on the order of elimination, with the SF seat in danger, the Labour seat in danger, and the outcome being too close to call. Thoughts?
A Kelly has a "stronghold near "Birdhill"?

Do you mean Nenagh?

Birdhill is a wide spot in the road...
 

hollandia

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That's bee the County constituency. I don't see it playing in the City much; I mean, are SF or the Alphabets going to play that card? O'Dea might but he doesn't need the votes. O'Donnell, Byrne, O'Sullivan and Hennelly won't.
It's near enough to the city. I'll be down that way myself next week so I may gauge opinion on the ground.
 

statsman

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A Kelly has a "stronghold near "Birdhill"?

Do you mean Nenagh?

Birdhill is a wide spot in the road...
It's the electoral area that includes parts of Nenagh. There's a reason for the link int he OP:
and in the county of Tipperary, the electoral divisions of:

Birdhill, Kilcomenty, Newport in the former Rural District of Nenagh."
 

statsman

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It's near enough to the city. I'll be down that way myself next week so I may gauge opinion on the ground.
I just don't see anyone running with it. In the county, FF will. And probably FG.
 

Vega1447

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statsman

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Just heard that Prendiville won't be running. A surprise.
 

lastofthebohemians

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Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
Just heard that Prendiville won't be running. A surprise.
That is a surprise. Should be good news for Quinlivan and possible boost for O'Sullivan.
 

lastofthebohemians

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Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
He's leaving politics completely. Has stepped down from the council. 'Personal reasons '.
That is a shame. Whatever you think about his Political viewpoint, he was certainly committed to Social Justice.
 

Hitchcock

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He's leaving politics completely. Has stepped down from the council. 'Personal reasons '.
Interesting - he was always a very long shot for the Dáil but he was incredibly ambitious and the SP/Solidarity were hoping he could make it.
 

statsman

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Interesting - he was always a very long shot for the Dáil and he was incredibly ambitious and the SP/Solidarity were hoping he could make it.
He certainly worked hard.
 


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