Limerick City: Call the next GE results

statsman

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My Take on the City-

O Dea (FF) - 9,000
O Donnell(FG) 7,000
Quinlivin(SF) - 6,000
Collins (FF) 5,500
O Sullivan 5,250
Byrne 5,250
Hennely 4,250
Cahillane 2,250
Greens 1,250
Daly or IND 1,250

(all tallies placed to 1/4 of thousands, because I am not that good)

O Dea elected on the 1st count, with just a quota (He may be made to wait, but I doubt it). I then see the few inds/ and if Frankie Daly runs being eliminated next. These transfer will benefit SF/Solidarity and SD's in that order. This will see SF move towards O Donnell but not overtake him. It will see Sol/SD move 'slightly' towards O Sullivan/Collins but not overtake either.

The greens when eliminated will see Lab/SD & Sol move but very equally, so the only one negatively affected will be collins.

This is where it gets interesting, the 3,000 solidarity votes when she is eliminated will elect someone as per 2011. I am, maybe wrongly, not giving the new Solidarity candidate a chance. Cian got 9.2% last time out. His replacement won't have water charges or his 'persona' to get 4,700 first preferences votes. If I am wrong, then the next part is wrong.

I have the quota at 9,000 and at this point after the 4th count we have

O Dea elected - with no transfers going to collins
O Donnell on 8,000 just waiting
Quinlivin - on 7,250 - just waiting

I have prior to elimination of solidarity
Collins on 6000
Byrne on 5,750
Jan on 5,750
Hennelly on 5,250

How do you call that? There are some factors at play here that are worth mentioning, but I have no clue how to quantify it.

1) Can the collins machine break level with Willie and drag him into the melting pot, because he isn't getting Socialist transfers. I am now eliminating him unless he polls within 1500 votes of WOD

2) How much will the Noonan side back Maria Byrne, and will it work? She has a good on the ground presence but it would take an amazing strategy to win 2 seats and right now it just looks like a constituency in chaos with only one winner internally to FG

So, I am left with figuring out who is more popular and transfer friendly between Jan and Hennelly. If, Jan is the leader of the Party (She is joint fav with PP right now), then goodwill will see O Sullivan scrape through again. On the other hand Hennelly is 30, her 3rd election, good visibility in the media and fairly popular among the under 40's in Limerick.

Whatever happens, I want to be at this count. 2 Political dynasties (Byrne & Collins) fighting a living legend (O Sulllivan) with a political newbie chomping at their heels (Hennelly) for the final seat. I'm going to be brave and call it now:

FF, FG, SF, SD (O Dea, O Donnell, Quinlivin, Hennelly)
The SDs rate this as a very outside chance of a seat. If you're breakdown up to the elimination of Cian P's replacement is right, then I can see Jan scraping it. However, I'm inclined to think that Byrne will do better than you think. And will FG make an issue out of the redevelopment of Castletroy Town Centre, which Sheehan seems to be right behind on the council? There are a lot of 'liberal' FG votes in the area where O'Donnell lives, if the results of recent referenda are anything to go by.
 


statsman

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That's a big call for the SD's. But i would agree that on current polling, Jan O'sullivan is toast. I actually doubt she'll be in the running as long as you think she will be.
Local conditions might just trump Labour's national polling figures. Might. Personally I think FF 1, FG 2, SF 1.
 

hollandia

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Local conditions might just trump Labour's national polling figures. Might. Personally I think FF 1, FG 2, SF 1.
SDs do seem to be getting organised down there though. Not sure if its too early for them, but a good showing in the locals next year could set them on their way.
 

Marie_Puree

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That's a big call for the SD's. But i would agree that on current polling, Jan O'sullivan is toast. I actually doubt she'll be in the running as long as you think she will be.
Ok, Disclaimer: I am an under 40 voter, whose circle of friends aren't involved with politics but will be voting O Donnell and Hennelly . It is a hunch that I have that simply by being there, Hennelly might take that last seat. Some of my other predictions included Clinton and No Brexit

The SDs locally and nationally are getting more than 3% coverage and seem to be understanding what it takes. If there is no GE before next May, then we can know if they make any impact at all. Labour have selected enough candidates to win only 3 seats out of 40 on the council, would be interesting to see if Solidarity or SDs can equal that tallly
 

statsman

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SDs do seem to be getting organised down there though. Not sure if its too early for them, but a good showing in the locals next year could set them on their way.
They are, but I can tell you quite confidently that they will be amazed if she wins a seat here. Maybe next time with no Jan in the race.
 

lastofthebohemians

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Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
Wee Willie, O'Donnell and Quinlivan certainties. All mighty scrap for last seat between Byrne (F.G) O'Sullivan (Lab) and Hennelly (SD)
 

statsman

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Wee Willie, O'Donnell and Quinlivan certainties. All mighty scrap for last seat between Byrne (F.G) O'Sullivan (Lab) and Hennelly (SD)
Oddly enough, the local FG org view Byrne as their front runner, Noonan's heir elect.
 

statsman

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I'm thinking more and more that Jan could hang on here.
 

statsman

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Latest updated predictions from across the threads.

FG - 58 - 59
FF - 49 - 53
SF - 22 - 24
Lab - 3 - 5
PBP - 1 - 2
Sol - 1
SD - 3
Green - 2
Indo - 16 15
Other - 0

Note that because the ranges per constituency can often involve more than two parties, there's no simple adding up to 160.
These figures include 1 FF for the CC.
 

Verhofstadt

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Don't underestimate Jan O'Sullivan, while Labour polling is awful nationally, she is well respected locally and has a fairly fervent constituency team who'd knock on every door in Limerick for her.

I'd put a few bob on her keeping her seat (if I was a betting man)
 

statsman

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Don't underestimate Jan O'Sullivan, while Labour polling is awful nationally, she is well respected locally and has a fairly fervent constituency team who'd knock on every door in Limerick for her.

I'd put a few bob on her keeping her seat (if I was a betting man)
They need to knock every door in the Birdhill electoral area; if she hoovers up the Kelly vote there she's in with a chance.
 

ymmek

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With boundary changes and Noonan's retirement, the next GE in the city constituency strikes me as being wide open.

The only certainty is that O'Dea will be returned, hog the first prefs for FF and ensure that his partner is not elected.

You'd expect one of the two FG senators to win the 2nd seat, O'Donnell or Byrne? My money is on the latter.

That leaves 2 seats between O'Donnell, O'Sullivan, Quinlivan, Prendiville and Hennelly. The move of the Shannon Banks ward to Clare is bound to reduce vote share for Quinlivan and Prendiville, while the inclusion of Alan Kelly's stronghold around Birdhill may encourage both O'Sullivan and Hennelly. These changes may help explain Prendiville's recent attempts to move his support a bit towards the centre, but it's unlikely to be enough.

My own feeling is that FG will take a second seat, and the last seat will depend on the order of elimination, with the SF seat in danger, the Labour seat in danger, and the outcome being too close to call. Thoughts?
The problem with your conclusion that FG take the 2nd seat is that after the few no-hopers are eliminated the next 3 or 4 to be eliminated are mainly left of centre,i.e IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER Green candidate,Daly (if running) SP candidate,SD candidate,Lab candidate.

This group and their order of elimination will decide where the final 2 seats go,Odea's surplus and the votes of all the others will provide slim pickings for FG and ensure that advancing towards a quota for either of them will be slow.

Collins will suffer a similar fate once Willie's surplus is distributed,with a good chunk of that scattered amongst all candidates with less than expected likely going to Collins.All remaining votes at this stage could best be described as left of centre and at that stage things will get really interesting.

If one attempts to add all the left of centre votes in play (i have tried to work it out) at that point, the findings will cause some surprise and a good deal of worry for the Collins and FG camps.

To add a little more to the puzzle.three or maybe 4 of the left of centre candidates will be women and of course one of the FG candidates is a woman.
 
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statsman

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The problem with your conclusion that FG take the 2nd seat is that after the few no-hopers are eliminated the next 3 or 4 to be eliminated are mainly left of centre,i.e IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER Green candidate,Daly (if running) SP candidate,SD candidate,Lab candidate.

This group and their order of elimination will decide where the final 2 seats go,Odea's surplus and the votes of all the others will provide slim pickings for FG and ensure that advancing towards a quota for either of them will be slow.

Collins will suffer a similar fate once Willie's surplus is distributed,with a good chunk of that scattered amongst all candidates with less than expected likely going to Collins.All remaining votes at this stage could best be described as left of centre and at that stage things will get really interesting.

If one attempts to add all the left of centre votes in play (i have tried to work it out) at that point, the findings will cause some surprise and a good deal of worry for the Collins and FG camps.

To add a little more to the puzzle.three or maybe 4 of the left of centre candidates will be women and of course one of the FG candidates is a woman.
I certainly wouldn’t discount Jan, and she is likely to get some preference from me.
 

ymmek

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Got a leaflet in the door from Maria Byrne and I hardly recognised her.Strange Trump coloured hair that gave her an oriental sort of look.
 

Alan Alda

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Ah here. Play the ball , not the man,or woman.
 

Alan Alda

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I certainly wouldn’t discount Jan, and she is likely to get some preference from me.
Indeed. Limerick is so short of credible socialists, one is almost forced to vote for Jan.
Rather her than 'solidarity'. Would like to see a PBP candidate in Limerick.
SD candidate seems to have potential.
 


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