- Feb 25, 2011
The SDs rate this as a very outside chance of a seat. If you're breakdown up to the elimination of Cian P's replacement is right, then I can see Jan scraping it. However, I'm inclined to think that Byrne will do better than you think. And will FG make an issue out of the redevelopment of Castletroy Town Centre, which Sheehan seems to be right behind on the council? There are a lot of 'liberal' FG votes in the area where O'Donnell lives, if the results of recent referenda are anything to go by.My Take on the City-
O Dea (FF) - 9,000
O Donnell(FG) 7,000
Quinlivin(SF) - 6,000
Collins (FF) 5,500
O Sullivan 5,250
Daly or IND 1,250
(all tallies placed to 1/4 of thousands, because I am not that good)
O Dea elected on the 1st count, with just a quota (He may be made to wait, but I doubt it). I then see the few inds/ and if Frankie Daly runs being eliminated next. These transfer will benefit SF/Solidarity and SD's in that order. This will see SF move towards O Donnell but not overtake him. It will see Sol/SD move 'slightly' towards O Sullivan/Collins but not overtake either.
The greens when eliminated will see Lab/SD & Sol move but very equally, so the only one negatively affected will be collins.
This is where it gets interesting, the 3,000 solidarity votes when she is eliminated will elect someone as per 2011. I am, maybe wrongly, not giving the new Solidarity candidate a chance. Cian got 9.2% last time out. His replacement won't have water charges or his 'persona' to get 4,700 first preferences votes. If I am wrong, then the next part is wrong.
I have the quota at 9,000 and at this point after the 4th count we have
O Dea elected - with no transfers going to collins
O Donnell on 8,000 just waiting
Quinlivin - on 7,250 - just waiting
I have prior to elimination of solidarity
Collins on 6000
Byrne on 5,750
Jan on 5,750
Hennelly on 5,250
How do you call that? There are some factors at play here that are worth mentioning, but I have no clue how to quantify it.
1) Can the collins machine break level with Willie and drag him into the melting pot, because he isn't getting Socialist transfers. I am now eliminating him unless he polls within 1500 votes of WOD
2) How much will the Noonan side back Maria Byrne, and will it work? She has a good on the ground presence but it would take an amazing strategy to win 2 seats and right now it just looks like a constituency in chaos with only one winner internally to FG
So, I am left with figuring out who is more popular and transfer friendly between Jan and Hennelly. If, Jan is the leader of the Party (She is joint fav with PP right now), then goodwill will see O Sullivan scrape through again. On the other hand Hennelly is 30, her 3rd election, good visibility in the media and fairly popular among the under 40's in Limerick.
Whatever happens, I want to be at this count. 2 Political dynasties (Byrne & Collins) fighting a living legend (O Sulllivan) with a political newbie chomping at their heels (Hennelly) for the final seat. I'm going to be brave and call it now:
FF, FG, SF, SD (O Dea, O Donnell, Quinlivin, Hennelly)