The Greens have come out strongly against a Cork - Limerick motorway. That will cost them votes in both cities.The Green vote is likely to be stronger in any Urban area. Rural voters appear to think their cars will be taken from them, or that they'll be prevented from farming (if that's their occupation). It's telling that it was Cork South Central and Carlow-Kilkenny that are the only other areas outside of Dublin to ever elect a Green TD.
Sinn Féin and Solidarity had dismal local elections in Limerick City. I agree that Quinlivan won't do as badly as his outgoing councilors, but the Social Democrats and Greens may take a lot of that vote.
Clinics.Why is Willie O’Dea still so popular in Limerick?
Leddin should do much better than Cahillane I think. One each for FF/FG/SF, with O'Dea, O'Donnell and Quinlivan all taking the first three.
The last seat will be an absolute dogfight between Collins, Leddin, Blake and O'Sullivan. How transfer friendly each of those individuals are will be the deciding factor. If FG's vote wasn't likely down then I'd expect Maria Byrne to be in the running, but the state of UHL will cost FG any hope of a second seat.
Cahillane and Blake will not pass the others and will not prove more transfer friendly.I actually, genuinely forgot the Greens in my assessment, mea culpa. I`m afraid my view is that they too have been bigged up somewhat just like Daly. So no Greens this time around. You say there will be a dogfight between Collins,O`Sullivan. Collins and O`Sullivan are not transfer friendly, I`ve already given my verdict on Leddin. You seem to miss the fact that both Cahillane and Blake are more than transfer friendly. The preferences from the eliminated candidates should be enough to lift them both past all the others.
And of course you are a heavyweight!!!!O'Dea, SF and one FG seat - Jan O'Sullivan is a goner (should have happened the last time). It is likely O'Dea and Quinlivan will have a surplus. SF tends to transfer to Solidarity and while Mary Cahillane does not have the advantage of having previously contested a general election, she was one of the campaigners responsible for bringing over 4,000 people onto the streets of Limerick last Saturday to protest over the hospital crisis. The SDs are picking up a few votes in the more affluent areas. The likely beneficiary of the collapse of the FG vote (and he will also get a large slice of the LP transfer) is Leddin of the Greens. The GP vote in the locals was largely taken from FG and Leddin is from FG roots (and his politics reflects this). He is likely to be elected to the last seat ahead of FF - and will then be exposed as an utter light-weight in political terms.
Pity for Sinn Fein, it didn't work the other way in the locals. When solidarity candidate was eliminated in Limerick City West, 234 of her votes (41%) went to the 'affluent' SDs and only 56 to SF ultimately costing the latter the seat.. It is likely O'Dea and Quinlivan will have a surplus. SF tends to transfer to Solidarity ........ The SDs are picking up a few votes in the more affluent areas.