Limerick City: Call the next GE results



rockofcashel

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Quinlivan will do better than the LE performance, but his chances will depend on whether SF are on the up come election day, or on the way down.. everyone keeps talking about a Green surge.. outside Dublin, I dont see it
 

just_society3

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The Green vote is likely to be stronger in any Urban area. Rural voters appear to think their cars will be taken from them, or that they'll be prevented from farming (if that's their occupation). It's telling that it was Cork South Central and Carlow-Kilkenny that are the only other areas outside of Dublin to ever elect a Green TD.

Sinn Féin and Solidarity had dismal local elections in Limerick City. I agree that Quinlivan won't do as badly as his outgoing councilors, but the Social Democrats and Greens may take a lot of that vote.
 

ymmek

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Social Democrats have an unknown candidate who will not do very well at all,Quinlivan will do well enough and has a very good chance of being re-elected.

I agree that Leddin will be in with a shout as the Greens did well in all electoral areas of Limerick,how well depends on the quality of the campaign he is able to run but he is in with a realistic chance.
 

just_society3

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Jenny Blake is well known in the artistic and student communities. I expect her to poll well enough to at least recover her deposit, but I'll be surprised if she's in the running for a seat. My point is that SF/Solidarity lost seats to SD/Greens, and if that trend continues...

Everyone seems to be bigging up Independent Frankie Daly's chances for some reason. I've no idea who he is or what he stands for.
 

Paddyc

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The Green vote is likely to be stronger in any Urban area. Rural voters appear to think their cars will be taken from them, or that they'll be prevented from farming (if that's their occupation). It's telling that it was Cork South Central and Carlow-Kilkenny that are the only other areas outside of Dublin to ever elect a Green TD.

Sinn Féin and Solidarity had dismal local elections in Limerick City. I agree that Quinlivan won't do as badly as his outgoing councilors, but the Social Democrats and Greens may take a lot of that vote.
The Greens have come out strongly against a Cork - Limerick motorway. That will cost them votes in both cities.
 

lastofthebohemians

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Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
Limerick : Willie ( needless to say):rolleyes: 1 F.G ( more likely O'Donnell) last two seats huge dogfight between S.F, Daly, Lab, second F.G and outside chance of second F.F if Willies strategy for once falls down..:cool:
 

just_society3

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Why is Willie O’Dea still so popular in Limerick?
Clinics.

His clinics which are very busy filling out forms for entitlements for those who really should fill them out themselves. Willie got me [fill in the blanks], which translates into a solid voter base, which mind you, only votes for him. A few elections ago, his surplus carried his Fine Gael rival over the line which was bizarre.

It's all to play for really. If I were a dyed in the wool FF supporter, I'd be hoping that James Collins would unseat Willie. He had a decent innings as Mayor last year which should see him in the mix for one of the final seats.

Many of my progressive/leftist/bleeding heart liberal friends are casting their votes for Jenny Blake, so she should get her deposit back at least. An nationwide SF surge will probably keep Quinlivan in the running, so the last seat is probably a battle between Labour / FF / GP. As the Greens are more transfer friendly, I'll call it for Brian Leddin.
 

Tawdy

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Hello all, I`m back. To add my pennys worth. One each to FF/FG. SF is safe, why they don`t have a running mate for Maurice is no mystery, think of the old ways, just like our Willie. The last seat is anybodys guess, Labour has serious ground to make up, so I think Jan is out, as some posters have said, Daly is being bigged up for some reason, he may do well but not this time for him. The Nasty Party, Rebbeca, is also out as is Ain`t True. Any independents are out. So that really leaves Cahillane and Blake, take your pick. They are both there with an even chance because most of the others are not very transfer friendly.
 

just_society3

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Leddin should do much better than Cahillane I think. One each for FF/FG/SF, with O'Dea, O'Donnell and Quinlivan all taking the first three.

The last seat will be an absolute dogfight between Collins, Leddin, Blake and O'Sullivan. How transfer friendly each of those individuals are will be the deciding factor. If FG's vote wasn't likely down then I'd expect Maria Byrne to be in the running, but the state of UHL will cost FG any hope of a second seat.
 

Tawdy

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Leddin should do much better than Cahillane I think. One each for FF/FG/SF, with O'Dea, O'Donnell and Quinlivan all taking the first three.

The last seat will be an absolute dogfight between Collins, Leddin, Blake and O'Sullivan. How transfer friendly each of those individuals are will be the deciding factor. If FG's vote wasn't likely down then I'd expect Maria Byrne to be in the running, but the state of UHL will cost FG any hope of a second seat.

I actually, genuinely forgot the Greens in my assessment, mea culpa. I`m afraid my view is that they too have been bigged up somewhat just like Daly. So no Greens this time around. You say there will be a dogfight between Collins,O`Sullivan. Collins and O`Sullivan are not transfer friendly, I`ve already given my verdict on Leddin. You seem to miss the fact that both Cahillane and Blake are more than transfer friendly. The preferences from the eliminated candidates should be enough to lift them both past all the others.
 

ymmek

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I actually, genuinely forgot the Greens in my assessment, mea culpa. I`m afraid my view is that they too have been bigged up somewhat just like Daly. So no Greens this time around. You say there will be a dogfight between Collins,O`Sullivan. Collins and O`Sullivan are not transfer friendly, I`ve already given my verdict on Leddin. You seem to miss the fact that both Cahillane and Blake are more than transfer friendly. The preferences from the eliminated candidates should be enough to lift them both past all the others.
Cahillane and Blake will not pass the others and will not prove more transfer friendly.
 

making waves

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O'Dea, SF and one FG seat - Jan O'Sullivan is a goner (should have happened the last time). It is likely O'Dea and Quinlivan will have a surplus. SF tends to transfer to Solidarity and while Mary Cahillane does not have the advantage of having previously contested a general election, she was one of the campaigners responsible for bringing over 4,000 people onto the streets of Limerick last Saturday to protest over the hospital crisis. The SDs are picking up a few votes in the more affluent areas. The likely beneficiary of the collapse of the FG vote (and he will also get a large slice of the LP transfer) is Leddin of the Greens. The GP vote in the locals was largely taken from FG and Leddin is from FG roots (and his politics reflects this). He is likely to be elected to the last seat ahead of FF - and will then be exposed as an utter light-weight in political terms.
 

ymmek

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O'Dea, SF and one FG seat - Jan O'Sullivan is a goner (should have happened the last time). It is likely O'Dea and Quinlivan will have a surplus. SF tends to transfer to Solidarity and while Mary Cahillane does not have the advantage of having previously contested a general election, she was one of the campaigners responsible for bringing over 4,000 people onto the streets of Limerick last Saturday to protest over the hospital crisis. The SDs are picking up a few votes in the more affluent areas. The likely beneficiary of the collapse of the FG vote (and he will also get a large slice of the LP transfer) is Leddin of the Greens. The GP vote in the locals was largely taken from FG and Leddin is from FG roots (and his politics reflects this). He is likely to be elected to the last seat ahead of FF - and will then be exposed as an utter light-weight in political terms.
And of course you are a heavyweight!!!!
 

KingsIsland

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. It is likely O'Dea and Quinlivan will have a surplus. SF tends to transfer to Solidarity ........ The SDs are picking up a few votes in the more affluent areas.
Pity for Sinn Fein, it didn't work the other way in the locals. When solidarity candidate was eliminated in Limerick City West, 234 of her votes (41%) went to the 'affluent' SDs and only 56 to SF ultimately costing the latter the seat.
Anyway, looks like Quinlivan will not have to rely on Solidarity transfers tomorrow. To answer Midlander12, I don't think FF will land second seat. I think it will be one FF, one SF, and between O Donnell & Byrne there will be one FG but I don't think either will go in on the first count or be anywhere near it. Thus I think the last seat will be between Greens, Labour & possibly Daly. Like Ymmek said weeks ago Collins (FF) will hang in for a long time but a big surprise will be the lack of transfers from others except maybe Byrne when/if she is eliminated. Despite not having run before I think Blake might come close to matching previous SD, Hennellys 5.9% FPV in 2016 but not enough to keep her in the mix for final seat. I think Cahillane will struggle due to lack of name recognition to be above Blake. Will Jenny Blake's transfers break more to Leddin or Jan O Sullivan? I think that might be the deciding factor in last seat.
 


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