Limerick City General Election

Future Irish Leader

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This is my constituency currently there are 5 seats in the constituency held by 2ff o dea and power 2fg Noonan and O'Donnell and 1 labour held by O'Sullivan. it is being reduced to four at the next election. O'Sullivan Noonan and O'Dea are safe, peter power is gone, the battle will be between kieran O'Donnell and the 2nd labour candidate Cllr Joe Leddin. based on regional polls ff are on 18 percent labour on 37percent anf fg on 32 percent. i expect that Leddin has the upper hand over O'Donnell because Leddin is well known throughout the city and is very popular. I welcome your thoughts and feedback.
 


Sync

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FF being on 18% locally is irrelevant to Limerick Central though. When you ask people they'll say the same thing they did in 2007 and 2002 and 1997. "Jays they're an awful shower. Of course I'm still voting for Willy, didn't he fix my pothole/gran's door/puppy's leg, and it's only polite to cast my second vote for his partner" If you added Noonan, O'Sullivan and O'Donnell's first votes together from 2007, they still didn't beat WOD and Power. Willy rocks a Koreaesque "Dear Leader" thing down there.

So really the question is how damaging have WOD's shenanigans been to his personal vote. I think it'll damage it, but by casting himself (reasonably effectively) as the outsider within FF, he's managed a bit of a recovery. Let's be realistic and say he drops to only 25% of the first votes. I still think that's going to be enough to drag another FF carcass over the line the way he has in the past 4 elections.

So I'd put that as the most likely, with O'Donnell as a close second.

If O'Dea were even to go to a second count then it's sign of the apocalypse for FF.
 
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ymmek

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FF being on 18% locally is irrelevant to Limerick Central though. When you ask people they'll say the same thing they did in 2007 and 2002 and 1997. "Jays they're an awful shower. Of course I'm still voting for Willy, didn't he fix my pothole/gran's door/puppy's leg, and it's only polite to cast my second vote for his partner"

So really the question is how damaging have WOD's shenanigans been to his personal vote. I think it'll damage it, but by casting himself (reasonably effectively) as the outsider within FF, he's managed a bit of a recovery. Let's be realistic and say he drops to only 25% of the first votes. I still think that's going to be enough to drag another FF carcass over the line the way he has in the past 4 elections.
True ODea will be a bit higher than the average,though maybe not as high as you suggest.Even if he does get 25% that would not be enough to bring in Power who would not get much more than 1000 of ODeas surplus on the basis that ODea gets 25%.Ihave given the reasons on the limerick threads why i believe Leddin will be elected,mainly because of the swing plus the fact he will run a huge campaign and he will be way more transfer friendly than any other candidate.ODonnell has lost approx 1500 votes due to boundary changes,he will not get many transfers from Power,Quinlivan,green or indos.If Leddin at any stage is ahead of Quinlivan he has a very good chance of edging ahead of ODonnell who is not well known in the city and will not improve very much on his first count performance.
 

Sync

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I think the X factor here, as well as in many counties, is how well Labour are actually able to campaign and push 2 candidates. It's something that hasn't been proven or even really been a factor in the past, and it's one of the most interesting areas to look at in the next election. I understand the shift in lines damages FG, but Labour will need to double their their first preference vote.

Jan's being bullish about it though: Labour targeting two out of the four seats in redrawn Limerick constituency - Limerick Leader
 

ymmek

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I think the X factor here, as well as in many counties, is how well Labour are actually able to campaign and push 2 candidates. It's something that hasn't been proven or even really been a factor in the past, and it's one of the most interesting areas to look at in the next election. I understand the shift in lines damages FG, but Labour will need to double their their first preference vote.

Jan's being bullish about it though: Labour targeting two out of the four seats in redrawn Limerick constituency - Limerick Leader
We have some evidence that the lab vote can rise under the right circumstances.In 1992 Jan OSullivan received more than 3000 votes and Jim Kemmy got 8200,more than 23%.Leddin is better known now than Jan was then.In 1998 labour got more votes than FFand FG in the by election despite the fact that DL had a candidate in the field who was well known and polled around 3500 votes.I am not trying to score points but the situation as of now with the candidate lineup seems to give Leddin an outstanding chance.
 

Aristodemus

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When you realise that there is no day of reckoning for the likes of O'Dea it's enough to make you despair
 

ymmek

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When you realise that there is no day of reckoning for the likes of O'Dea it's enough to make you despair
Yes it would make one despair,but on the bright side,ODea will be an old age pensioner almost before he has the remotest possibility of being in government again.
 

ymmek

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candidates contesting limerick city

Now that the election campaign is finally underway,what will the final list of candidates be and who will make it to the dail in limerick city.
 

williewatch

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Now that the election campaign is finally underway,what will the final list of candidates be and who will make it to the dail in limerick city.
Well, we all know that Willie O'Dea will be most heavily be promoted by the Limerick Post anyway. Not to mention, soft one to on "interviews" on local radio where he does not have to be challenged by anybody else live on air.

The one thing that we can be sure of is that all candidates will not get a fair shake in local Limerick media as they roll the WOD media campaign along.

Interestingly enough, he failed to appear on local radio yesterday. Local wags were saying that he was last seen sailing down the Shannon in a life raft with room for one only :p

 
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realistic1

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Well, we all know that Willie O'Dea will be most heavily be promoted by the Limerick Post anyway. Not to mention, soft one to on "interviews" on local radio where he does not have to be challenged by anybody else live on air.

The one thing that we can be sure of is that all candidates will not get a fair shake in local Limerick media as they roll the WOD media campaign along.

Do you honestly think it would make a massive difference? People vote for Willie O'Dea because he is constanly visible, approachable and gets the people what they want if they are entitled to it..
 

DAOINE

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Wouldnt it be great if Willie was thrown out by the electorate a long with Peter Power. Even better if he was beaten by Quinlivan.
Anyway Willie will no doubt survive with a reduced vote.
 
S

SeamusNapoleon

I saw Quinlivan was out at the top of Bedford Row with the crew yesterday afternoon.

I would give a kidney to have him take O'Dea's seat.
Alas :-(
 

ellie08

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Do you honestly think it would make a massive difference? People vote for Willie O'Dea because he is constanly visible, approachable and gets the people what they want if they are entitled to it..
Willie O Dea has done nothing for Ireland or Limerick. He hopefully will lose his seat in the next election if people would just wake up to that fact. If Willie O Dea did a favour for me, or even 10, I still wouldn't vote for him. Anyway I don't know who these people are that need to go to that man to sort out their lives - they must be fierce thick/lazy/incompetent.
 

realistic1

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Willie O Dea has done nothing for Ireland or Limerick. He hopefully will lose his seat in the next election if people would just wake up to that fact. If Willie O Dea did a favour for me, or even 10, I still wouldn't vote for him. Anyway I don't know who these people are that need to go to that man to sort out their lives - they must be fierce thick/lazy/incompetent.
He helps people cut out a lot of the bull red tape and most politicians in this country do the same. The difference is Willie O'Dea gives people the impression that he is getting you something that you are not entitled to ;)
 

ellie08

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He helps people cut out a lot of the bull red tape and most politicians in this country do the same. The difference is Willie O'Dea gives people the impression that he is getting you something that you are not entitled to ;)
I didn't realise that was part of a Minister of Defence's work - doing the City Councillors' work and the Social Welfare officers' jobs ;) People would want to cop on and grow up.
 

TonyBird

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I didn't realise that was part of a Minister of Defence's work - doing the City Councillors' work and the Social Welfare officers' jobs ;) People would want to cop on and grow up.
Ineed , it says a lot about the 'functionality' of our 'public service' , when you need political muscle to get basic entitlements . Something is rotten .
 

ellie08

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Ineed , it says a lot about the 'functionality' of our 'public service' , when you need political muscle to get basic entitlements . Something is rotten .
It also says a lot about the functionality of some of the constituents. Believe me, I know how difficult it can be to get proper service from some of our public servants. Having said that some of the people dealing with the public are so rude and incompetent that something should be done about them. Having gone through the college grant application with the city council, it certainly isn't something I'd like to attempt ever again.
 

williewatch

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Do you honestly think it would make a massive difference? People vote for Willie O'Dea because he is constanly visible, approachable and gets the people what they want if they are entitled to it..
Easy to get things done for constituents I suppose when you have six civil servants working on your constituency matters at the tax payers expense.


Willie O'Dea Approachable?...not so sure about that.

 


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