Limerick County: call the next GE results

statsman

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One of the more conservative constituencies, last time out it returned 1 FF and 2 FGH TDs. Hard to see much change this time around.

Here's the 2016 first prefs voe:

Collins, Niall elected 27.64% - FF
O'Donovan, Patrick elected 19.09% - FG
Neville, Tom elected 18.04% - FG
O'Brien, Emmet not-elected 12.23% - INDO
Browne, Seamus eliminated 7.54% - SF
Heffernan, James eliminated 7.36% - SD
O'Donoghue, Richard eliminated 6.43% - INOD
Storey-Cosgrave, Alexander eliminated 0.70% - Green
Keogh, Mark eliminated 0.50% - DDI
O'Gorman, John eliminated 0.47% - INDO

Heffernan won't be running this time out. As far as I know, the SDs haven't named a candidate yet.

Linking this to the main thread where I plan to amalgamate all the constituency predictions to come up with our own overall GE seat count prediction.

Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind
 
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hollandia

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One of the more conservative constituencies, last time out it returned 1 FF and 2 FGH TDs. Hart to see much change this time around.

Here's the 2016 first prefs voe:

Collins, Niall elected 27.64%
O'Donovan, Patrick elected 19.09%
Neville, Tom elected 18.04%
O'Brien, Emmet not-elected 12.23%
Browne, Seamus eliminated 7.54%
Heffernan, James eliminated 7.36%
O'Donoghue, Richard eliminated 6.43%
Storey-Cosgrave, Alexander eliminated 0.70%
Keogh, Mark eliminated 0.50%
O'Gorman, John eliminated 0.47%

Heffernan won't be running this time out. As far as I know, the SDs haven't named a candidate yet.

Linking this to the main thread where I plan to amalgamate all the constituency predictions to come up with our own overall GE seat count prediction.

Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind
Might be useful for those not in the locale to have the parties listed beside the candidates, stats?
 

lastofthebohemians

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Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
Both O'Donoghue and O'Brien have raised their profile over the last two years and though Neville still remains favourite for the last seat, would not rule out a surprise.
 

statsman

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Both O'Donoghue and O'Brien have raised their profile over the last two years and though Neville still remains favourite for the last seat, would not rule out a surprise.
It would be a surprise if FG lost out on a seat with even a couple of % points drop in their FPV share.
 

hollandia

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It would be a surprise if FG lost out on a seat with even a couple of % points drop in their FPV share.
Depends on whether a Casey type appears or not. My sense from talking to people in the Newcastle West/Adare areas is that such a candidate would do well.
 

statsman

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Depends on whether a Casey type appears or not. My sense from talking to people in the Newcastle West/Adare areas is that such a candidate would do well.
I think the three incumbents will all move into that slot.
 

statsman

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Which would be retrograde in my opinion.
It would, but it's that kind of constituency. Unless Casey can get one of the All Ireland winners on board...
 

lastofthebohemians

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Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
It would be a surprise if FG lost out on a seat with even a couple of % points drop in their FPV share.
I think Neville is skating on thin ice. The county voted 34% for Casey last week, and there is a seat there for someone who can tap in to that level of disillusionment
 

Prof Honeydew

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As I said, only a county hurler will do.
Peter Casey came on as a sub for Limerick in three or four championship games this year and might have made the starting lineup had All-Ireland club commitments not kept him out of the panel during the league. But his brother Mike came in for Séamus Hickey after the Tipp match and held his place at full-back for the rest of the season.

Only problem for Peter is he plays for Na Piarsaigh, which is in the City constituency. Still, he got a nice vote in the County although I thought he looked a bit underage to be a Presidential candidate.
 

statsman

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Peter Casey came on as a sub for Limerick in three or four championship games this year and might have made the starting lineup had All-Ireland club commitments not kept him out of the panel during the league. But his brother Mike came in for Séamus Hickey after the Tipp match and held his place at full-back for the rest of the season.

Only problem for Peter is he plays for Na Piarsaigh, which is in the City constituency. Still, he got a nice vote in the County although I thought he looked a bit underage to be a Presidential candidate.
:laugh:
 

statsman

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Latest updated predictions from across the threads.

FG - 58 - 59
FF - 49 - 53
SF - 22 - 24
Lab - 3 - 5
PBP - 1 - 2
Sol - 1
SD - 3
Green - 2
Indo - 16 15
Other - 0

Note that because the ranges per constituency can often involve more than two parties, there's no simple adding up to 160.
These figures include 1 FF for the CC.
 

im axeled

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according to the leader eddie ryan claims to have been shafted by the collins's, not a happy bunny, will be contesting the next council elections as an indy, will his personal vote be enough, who will the collins's replace him with, the former shinner girl has refuted their advances publicly on the leader
 

statsman

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The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

FG
Max: 66
Min: 51

FF
Max: 52
Min 41

SF
Max 25
Min 22

Lab
Max: 8
Min:3

PBP
Max: 3
Min: 1

Sol
Max: 2
Min: 1

SD
Max: 4
Min: 3

Green
Max: 2
Min: 0

Indos/others
Max: 21
Min: 16
 

midlander12

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LE totals approx:- FF 29%; FG 43%; Oths 13%; SF 4%.

This is one of the most predicable constituencies in the country:- FF 1, FG 2. As they say in the best legal judgments, 'nothing further occurs'.
 


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