Limerick County: call the next GE results

lastofthebohemians

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Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
LE totals approx:- FF 29%; FG 43%; Oths 13%; SF 4%.

This is one of the most predicable constituencies in the country:- FF 1, FG 2. As they say in the best legal judgments, 'nothing further occurs'.
Would not rule out Richard O Donaghue springing a big surprise here.
 


lastofthebohemians

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Daniel King/ex Daniel/Daxxdrake
Who's he? Indo?
Yes former F.F. Elected to the Council and if Collins is the only F.F candidate he has a squeak, though I think F.G will probably hold on to their two seats just about this rime.
 

KingsIsland

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Cllr Eddie Ryan added by Fianna Fail tonight. Too late surely to make impact seatwise but might make it more difficult for O Donoghue to spring a shock.
Collins and O Donovan are safe here. Only question mark is over third seat. Tom Neville on a good day for FG would be ok but O'Donoghue (with on paper backing from fellow independents- like Emmett O'Brien) could mount strong challenge. He has promised to be West Limerick's Healy Rae or Lowry.

Having travelled through the county today, very notable is the huge poster presence of Green Party candidate Claire Keating, far and away above the postering done by any Green candidate in west Limerick before. Her base in Croagh should put Tom Neville under some further pressure as this area would be his families natural base.


FF to run two (Limerick Leader article)
 

midlander12

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I wonder is the second FG seat in any danger here, and if so, who would benefit? FF? Or is there any significant left presence here - is the SDs' James Heffernan running?

FF 1, FG 2 but I have my doubts about FG
 

KingsIsland

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No SD or LAb
Only Green and late addition for SF. I think both will do reasonably well (certainly better than GP and SF in 2016 here) but would be hard to seem them in running for seat. I think the late addition of Michael Collins to FF ticket will hurt O Donovan badly in his heartland of NCW and despite him spreading the ministerial largesse around in last few months, he might be the more nervous of the the two FG candidates tonight. O Donoghue the independent will poll well also.

Just rethinking the above, there has been surprises in this 'predictable' constituency before. John McCoy coming out of nowhere to get a PD seat in 87 reflected national trends so maybe if there is a big bounce for SF O'Ceilligh will do much better than expected. Each one of the county constituencies returned Sf in 2014 locals so there is an emerging base.
 


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