List of candidates in Limerick City

ymmek

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ODea,OSullivan,Quinlivan,ODonnell,Byrne,Collins,Daly and Leddin already declared,who else will have a go and has anyone outside this group a chance of being elected.
 


just_society3

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I'm going to call it one FF, one FG, one GP, and one Labour. It's just an armchair prediction now mind you.

FF: Collins may well take O'Dea's seat. I hesitate to write off O'Dea but if he ever loses an election it'll be this one. Collins is a strong candidate and had a good turn as Mayor.

FG: Senator Kieran O'Donnell may benefit from a boundary change which absorbed parts of Co. Tipperary. But Senator Maria Byrne is a strong canvasser, has a good profile and the support of outgoing TD Michael Noonan.

GP: The Greens won two councilors last June, and Brian Leddin is a young candidate who is likely to do well on the basis of a nationwide surge in the Green vote along with a good youth vote. Leddin is a well known political name around the city too.

Lab: The older left wing voters will probably turn out in support for Jan O'Sullivan and she may pick up enough transfers to survive. Dodgy though.

If she falls, then the seat is either a second FF or FG, unless SF's Quinlivan hangs on. I've hardly seen Quinlivan around Limerick whereas the other serving TD's have a decent local and national profile. SocDem's have picked a student support councilor Jenny Blake who may take votes from O'Sullivan, but it's hard to see her making the running for the final seat. I'd not heard of her before her candidacy was announced. Independent councilor Frankie Daly is a bit of a wild card, but I can't see him mounting a serious challenge.

It's likely to be one of the most interesting electoral battles across the country.
 

ymmek

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ODea is likely to get almost as many first preference votes as the votes the next two highest candidates added together and probably more than three times the number of votes Collins will receive and i can assure you that is not something i am looking forward to.
 

KingsIsland

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Jun 6, 2009
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Aontu and Justin Barrett's crowd have also declared.

It will be some fight, I agree with ymmek that WOD will top poll. I see people talk up Leddin, I don't see it. He will reflect more or less GP vote nationwide and I can't see that go north of 10% Neither of his running mates in local elections got over 10% FPV and he himself in a base where his name is strong only got 11%. At the last general election Jan got in with 11% FPV, no guarantee that will happen for any candidate this time.

If Sinn Fein have a good nationwide campaign, Maurice Quinlivan can survive, the trot left took nearly 10% FPV in 2016 with Cian Prendiville, I don't see them running anyone with nearly that profile again so those votes are now floating, at least 30-35% will go to Sinn Fein based on transfer patterns in 2016 and 2019 locals. However Sinn Feins vote will be squeezed elsewhere and if FF were to balance the vote out between Collins and O Dea and had a swing nationwide, maybe they could get second seat. I personally don't think they will but it will be an interesting three weeks.
 

ymmek

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Collins will face exactly the same problem ODonnell faced last time,When ODeas surplus is distributed Collins will be ahead of a few high profile candidates.
Most of the candidates behind will be of the "left" in one form or another (inc Greens) , (with the exception of running mate Byrne the bulk of whose votes will be required to elect ODonnell).They will be mainly city based and will not favour Collins.

He will probably get some transfers from the Aontu candidate but they will be votes he took from Collins in the first place and Collins will sit and suffer for a long time just as ODonnell did last time and is very likely to be passed by one or more at the business end of things.
 

just_society3

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It is probably a bit soon to write Willie off I guess. But if I were a Fianna Fáil voter I wouldn't be voting for Willie, as he's not a good party man. Collins is a solid candidate who I can see the party machinery getting behind, but it's probably not enough to dislodge Willie or claim a second FF seat. Willie's high vote has very little to do with FF, and everything to do with the clinics.

The A&E crisis in UHL will probably ruin any chance of a second FG seat.

I see the Greens as being very transfer friendly. The young, liberal and left vote will all mark in high preferences for Leddin which will carry him over the line. The remaining left vote will elect an SF or Lab candidate.
 

McTell

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Can I have what some of your smoking if you think Willie will lose his seat!
Your off your head....

Willie is worth more than the rest of them put together.
 

KingsIsland

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Jun 6, 2009
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Collins will face exactly the same problem ODonnell faced last time,When ODeas surplus is distributed Collins will be ahead of a few high profile candidates.
Most of the candidates behind will be of the "left" in one form or another (inc Greens) , (with the exception of running mate Byrne the bulk of whose votes will be required to elect ODonnell).They will be mainly city based and will not favour Collins.

He will probably get some transfers from the Aontu candidate but they will be votes he took from Collins in the first place and Collins will sit and suffer for a long time just as ODonnell did last time and is very likely to be passed by one or more at the business end of things.
I agree, can see it play out like that alright.

An amusing article in Leader has it that Willie might be even quietly suggesting number 2s for Frankie Daly. Either way, it will be interesting what Daly gets. Himself and O'Donoghue in the county, on paper, have backing of a number of independent Councillors and if no other independents were to enter, could Daly be looking at 2.5-3 k FPV? If he did achieve that (he got 1800 first preferences in locals last May) a significant number of second preferences from 'Dea would certainly leave him there at 'business end of things'.

"No great love (Limerick Leader article)"
 

ymmek

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Willie will only promote Willie and there is no substance to that story,a similar story was floated at the last general election but that was rubbish as well,Daly is likely to receive in the region of what you have suggested and on a good day he could get more. However all candidates with any kind of profile will get transfers from ODea and Daly could expect 12% or so of the surplus,Quinlivan,O'Sullivan and Leddin would probably get around the 10 to 12% also and Byrne only getting 3 or 4 %..ODea could get as many votes as last time despite having a running mate.
 


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