Longford-Westmeath: Call Next GE


sic transit

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Four-seater and one of a number of cross-county constituencies with the current incumbents, except Penrose, running again.

Robert Troy FF
Kevin Moran IA
Peter Burke FG
Willie Penrose Lab


Troy was top of the poll and should return. Joe Flaherty has been selected for the Longford end and seems keen to "get" the FF seat back. FG will also run Gabrielle McFadden, who polled on the lower side and Cllr Michael Carrigy. Penrose and Alan Mangan will run for Labour. SF have gone with Mullingar based Sorcha Clarke. Former FG Cllr Frank Kilbride will run as an independent.One would expect two of the four seats to go to FF and FG. Moran should be returned I reckon. After that, with Penrose's departure it could turn out to be quite a scrap between SF, FF and possibly FG for that last seat, although there do seem to be reports of SF squabbles in the constituency.

1 FF 1 FG 1 IA and one of FF/FG/SF and one of those counts that could go on for days!
 

devoutcapitalist

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Are there still divisions in Sinn Fein in the constituency after Paul Hogan left? He had built up the party since the mid 2000's.
 

sic transit

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Are there still divisions in Sinn Fein in the constituency after Paul Hogan left? He had built up the party since the mid 2000's.
Don't have the local knowledge on this, just reports I have read. All I know is the candidate for the next GE was unopposed.
 

midlander12

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Four-seater and one of a number of cross-county constituencies with the current incumbents, except Penrose, running again.

Robert Troy FF
Kevin Moran IA
Peter Burke FG
Willie Penrose Lab


Troy was top of the poll and should return. Joe Flaherty has been selected for the Longford end and seems keen to "get" the FF seat back. FG will also run Gabrielle McFadden, who polled on the lower side and Cllr Michael Carrigy. Penrose and Alan Mangan will run for Labour. SF have gone with Mullingar based Sorcha Clarke. Former FG Cllr Frank Kilbride will run as an independent.One would expect two of the four seats to go to FF and FG. Moran should be returned I reckon. After that, with Penrose's departure it could turn out to be quite a scrap between SF, FF and possibly FG for that last seat, although there do seem to be reports of SF squabbles in the constituency.

1 FF 1 FG 1 IA and one of FF/FG/SF and one of those counts that could go on for days!
Regional rivalries are as important here as party ones - there will have to be a Longford seat after last time, and FG and FF voters will transfer to each other to ensure this happens. Westmeath is divided into the Mullingar and Athlone spheres of interest. The Lab seat is gone (although Mangan will poll 4-5000 votes and his transfers may be critical) and the SF candidate is largely unknown in Longford and unlikely to poll well in Athlone because of lingering bitterness over the treatment of former candidate Paul Hogan.

Troy (FF) is certain of reelection and one of the Longforders will also be elected, probably the FFer who has a slightly higer profile. There will certainly be 1 FG seat (more than likely Bourke again) but FG have always struggled with the second seat here, winning it only in 2011 in recent times. I would assume Boxer Moran has done enough in govt to override any backlash against indos - McFadden will certainly not trouble him unduly if she is running and he will largely have Athlone to himself.

Hogan was an assumed shoo-in for a seat this time and gradually got closer and closer over the last few elections, but for reasons best known to themselves SF let him exit the party amid accusations and counter-accusations. Clarke will certainly poll well around Mullingar but I doubt this will be enough to get her the fourth seat.

So really the only query is the Longford seat, which on balance I think will go to FF. FF 2, FG 1, IA 1.
 

SamsonS

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Troy, Burke and Moran should be fine.
As Midlander said definite Longford seat - although I think Longford second pref will stay in the county except for the die hards. Probably FF ahead of FG, so likely to benefit and take that last seat.
 

Observer

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Troy (FF) is certain of reelection and one of the Longforders will also be elected, probably the FFer who has a slightly higer profile.

...

So really the only query is the Longford seat, which on balance I think will go to FF. FF 2, FG 1, IA 1.
I would have said that Carrigy has the higher profile having been a councillor since 2009, but the fundamentals should favour FF over FG (with two absolutely awful candidates last time, Gerety-Quinn came very close to outpolling Bannon despite having been imposed on a rebellious local FF organisation and with Troy taking 1,500 FF first preferences out of the county).

On the plus side for FG, voters may switch to them if they look like being in government - although this is a very Dublin-focussed government from a rural POV.
 

Golden Phoenix

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What is James Bannon doing these days?
 

statsman

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Anyone care to call the 4th seat?
 

Dame_Enda

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With Penrose retiring the Labour seat is clearly vulnerable. He only held on following a recount last time by 823 votes.

A second FG seat is plausible if they run 2 candidates instead of the foolish 3-candidate strategy of 2016. They won 2 seats in 2011 when they were in the mid thirties nationally.

I predict: Troy (FF), Moran (Ind), Burke (FG), and a dogfight for the last seat between Labour, SF, and (if they run just 2 candidates) FG. If FG go mad again with a three candidate strategy they will split the vote and hurt their chances of a second seat.

If however FG again run 3 candidates (as SamsonS says is the case), I predict: 1 FF, 1 Ind, 1 FG, and last seat between Labour and SF.
 
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SamsonS

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With Penrose retiring the Labour seat is clearly vulnerable. He only held on following a recount last time by 823 votes.

A second FG seat is plausible if they run 2 candidates instead of the foolish 3-candidate strategy of 2016. They won 2 seats in 2011 when they were in the mid thirties nationally.

I predict: Troy (FF), Moran (Ind), Burke (FG), and a dogfight for the last seat between Labour, SF, and (if they run just 2 candidates) FG. If FG go mad again with a three candidate strategy they will split the vote and hurt their chances of a second seat.
FG going with 3 again, McFadden and Carrigy.

Reckon Carrigy will finish behind Flaherty and his preferences will see Flaherty over the line. FF gain.
 

the secretary

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For SF to be challenging here they will be doing really well after what has happened their established candidate.
Surely it will be FG or FF for the Lab seat?
 

Observer

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Anyone care to call the 4th seat?
My hunch is that it might depend on whether or how clearly FG are in front going into the final days, although Longford is where the battle will be and is close enough to the border and dependent enough on manufacturing to feel severe effects from what looks to be an inevitably-botched Brexit (whatever way that will play out in the voters' minds).
 

statsman

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Latest updated predictions from across the threads.

FG - 58 - 59
FF - 49 - 53
SF - 22 - 24
Lab - 3 - 5
PBP - 1 - 2
Sol - 1
SD - 3
Green - 2
Indo - 16 15
Other - 0

Note that because the ranges per constituency can often involve more than two parties, there's no simple adding up to 160.
These figures include 1 FF for the CC.
 

Plebian

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Troy is a certain seat for FF

There's definitely a FG seat, almost certainly that'd be Burke.

Independent Boxer Moran will take the Athlone seat because FF have abandoned Athlone to the ex-FF Moran. Mc Fadden FG lacks the charisma to take votes from Moran and it would take a tsunami for FG nationally for her to get elected ahead of Moran.

Basically that leaves the remaining seat between someone from Longford and the Mullingar based SF candidate with an outside possibility that if a Longford? FG candidate was well up on first preferences that it could be Burke FG ( 10.3% in 2016 ) that would be left fighting with SF ( 9.5% in 2016 ) for the last seat.

The unknown in this contest is where the Penrose vote will go? Was it a Labour vote, a Mullingar vote or a personal vote he had?

As for SF the loss of Hogan isn't that big of a handicap to them because he was vying for a seat from a theoretical Athlone base ( living in Longford but elected to Athlone Council area ) which he couldn't hold against Boxer Moran. In the by-election Hogan took roughly 7,500 and Moran took roughly 5,600 by the time of the General Election that had reversed to Moran 7,600 and Hogan 5,200. That particular battle was where SF lost out on taking a seat in 2016.

This time SF have a relative unknown female candidate from a stronger SF base in Mullingar ( where SF now have 2 councillors including the candidate ) who's likely to poll much the same as Hogan ( 9.5% ) unless Hogan decides to run as an Independent which would split the SF vote.
 

statsman

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Troy is a certain seat for FF

There's definitely a FG seat, almost certainly that'd be Burke.

Independent Boxer Moran will take the Athlone seat because FF have abandoned Athlone to the ex-FF Moran. Mc Fadden FG lacks the charisma to take votes from Moran and it would take a tsunami for FG nationally for her to get elected ahead of Moran.

Basically that leaves the remaining seat between someone from Longford and the Mullingar based SF candidate with an outside possibility that if a Longford? FG candidate was well up on first preferences that it could be Burke FG ( 10.3% in 2016 ) that would be left fighting with SF ( 9.5% in 2016 ) for the last seat.

The unknown in this contest is where the Penrose vote will go? Was it a Labour vote, a Mullingar vote or a personal vote he had?

As for SF the loss of Hogan isn't that big of a handicap to them because he was vying for a seat from a theoretical Athlone base ( living in Longford but elected to Athlone Council area ) which he couldn't hold against Boxer Moran. In the by-election Hogan took roughly 7,500 and Moran took roughly 5,600 by the time of the General Election that had reversed to Moran 7,600 and Hogan 5,200. That particular battle was where SF lost out on taking a seat in 2016.

This time SF have a relative unknown female candidate from a stronger SF base in Mullingar ( where SF now have 2 councillors including the candidate ) who's likely to poll much the same as Hogan ( 9.5% ) unless Hogan decides to run as an Independent which would split the SF vote.
So, that last seat is wide open?
 

midlander12

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So, that last seat is wide open?
I don't think so. I don't think SF are in with much of a shout. Their candidate is virtually unknown outside Mullingar whereas Hogan had a highish profile all over the constituency and was seen as likely to get a seat next time.

Unless Labour can stage a Lazarus-style revival, it will be Troy FF, Burke FG and Moran IA in Westmeath and then between FF and FG for the Longford seat. On balance I still favour FF for that but I wouldn't bet the house on it.
 

bogtrotter

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Hogan is a huge loss to Sinn Fein and was an almost certainty for a seat next time around....Clarke as a Mullingar based candidate will be in with a chance but she needs to get the old Hogan Sinn Fein organisation behind her to be in with any chance of winning...Not sure if that will happen as old wounds take time to heal....If Hogan runs as an Independent he could be in the running for the last seat...
 
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