Longford Westmeath - how could it go next time ?

PO'Neill

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devoutcapitalist

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I can see Penrose losing his seat and Labour definitely won't hold the seat If Penrose doesn't run again.
 

PO'Neill

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I can see Penrose losing his seat and Labour definitely won't hold the seat If Penrose doesn't run again.
Penrose has held it since 1992, if he wasn't kicked out the last time he wouldn't be. He's 61, I'd say there's a few runs left in him yet.
 

devoutcapitalist

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Penrose has held it since 1992, if he wasn't kicked out the last time he wouldn't be. He's 61, I'd say there's a few runs left in him yet.
That depends on whether Labour is able to revive nationally, they are still stagnant under Howlin.
 

PO'Neill

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Will bannon be making a comeback hehehe
Can't see it as there is no space for him as there is a FG, FF, de facto FG/FF in Moran of Ross's Indos. An SF candidate might have an outside chance and that's about it.
 
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PO'Neill

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That depends on whether Labour is able to revive nationally, they are still stagnant under Howlin.
There will be no Labour revival, that political space has been taken over by SF, Indos4Change, PBP/AAA.
 
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ergo2

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Boxer's well publicised activity on the flooding issues will insulate him from any drift away from indos.

TheLord Ross connection may not be much of an advantage
 

PBP voter

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The same or a FF gain.

They need a better second candidate this time for that to happen.
 

the secretary

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Could likely stay the same.
SF have shot themselves in the foot over the dispute with Hogan.
FF have a bit of work to do to get an extra seat here.
Likewise FG will have their work cut out to get a second.
The Lab guy is by far the most vulnerable sitting TD. He got less than half a quota last time out.
 
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PO'Neill

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Could likely stay the same.
SF have shot themselves in the foot over the dispute with Hogan.
FF have a bit of work to do to get an extra seat here.
Likewise FG will have their work cut out to get a second.
The Lab guy is by far the most vulnerable sitting TD. He got less than half a quota last time out.
Hogan is another one of the opportunists who joined SF around 2011 and as per usual before jumping claims "bullying" to play the sympathy card and have a dig at the party he will be competing with in future elections. Better off without the likes of him and others like him.
 

PBP voter

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Better off without the likes of him and others like him.
If they start running as indos it will hurt SF.

Just like it has hurt FF and FG over the years.

It will be worse for SF of course given they have so few seats compared to the big two.
 

the secretary

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Hogan is another one of the opportunists who joined SF around 2011 and as per usual before jumping claims "bullying" to play the sympathy card and have a dig at the party he will be competing with in future elections. Better off without the likes of him and others like him.
I thought he was in SF much longer than that.
He is entitled to a difference of opinion with SF.
Bogtrotter still thinks he'll be the SF candidate at the next GE!
 

devoutcapitalist

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PO'Neill

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I thought he was in SF much longer than that.
He is entitled to a difference of opinion with SF.
Bogtrotter still thinks he'll be the SF candidate at the next GE!
Fair enough, can't see much of a change in that constituency though.
 

ShortFord

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Penrose might very well retire next election on health grounds. He was already ready to hang up his coat this election. If he does the local loyalties don't transfer to the party specifically. Troy would gain a lot of transfers, and Penrose already just got by on the skin of his teeth this time. A replacement would fail to live up to him, even his own brother.

If they play their cards right, SF could very well fill that gap. Combined with the current lack of a Longford rep, if they had a candidate from somewhere like Edgeworthstown that person would be ideal as it's fairly geographically center in the constituency too.

Boxer would also have a tough fight on his hands. FF could very well steal that seat from under him.

Troy is high and dry.

Burkes only problem is his own party. There's a FG candidate getting a seat regardless, the question is just going to be is it him, or does someone else coming in swooping from behind like he did to Bannon
 

SamsonS

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Music in the cafes at night and revolution in the air. Okay, I'm stretching it a bit with the cafes bit, but gotta be at least 1 Longford seat next time around.

Obvious casualty is Willie , who I doubt will run.

Paul Hogan should have been in the mix, but don't think so now. (Aside, someone posted above that he was a SF "newbie" in 2011 - nonsense he was Mayor of Athlone in 2007, aged 24 and first stood for SF in 2003. )

So the 3 in Westmeath, Boxer, Robert and Peter should be sound. Straight battle then in Longford, with Joe Flaherty (FF) and Michael Carrigy (FG).
Jimmy Morgan unlikely to run. Would reckon which ever of Joe/Michael ahead on first count will get it, cause all Longford 2nd preference will stay in county! .
As for Bannon, while we disliked him, now that he's not in the dail we dislike him less, not enough to elect him mind you, but in the kinda way we could give out about his gaffes, like the embarrassing speech at the wedding that gets funny over time.

Anyway back to the revolution, first motion, ban all premises selling caffeine based products after 9pm.
 

midlander12

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Music in the cafes at night and revolution in the air. Okay, I'm stretching it a bit with the cafes bit, but gotta be at least 1 Longford seat next time around.

Obvious casualty is Willie , who I doubt will run.

Paul Hogan should have been in the mix, but don't think so now. (Aside, someone posted above that he was a SF "newbie" in 2011 - nonsense he was Mayor of Athlone in 2007, aged 24 and first stood for SF in 2003. )

So the 3 in Westmeath, Boxer, Robert and Peter should be sound. Straight battle then in Longford, with Joe Flaherty (FF) and Michael Carrigy (FG).
Jimmy Morgan unlikely to run. Would reckon which ever of Joe/Michael ahead on first count will get it, cause all Longford 2nd preference will stay in county! .
As for Bannon, while we disliked him, now that he's not in the dail we dislike him less, not enough to elect him mind you, but in the kinda way we could give out about his gaffes, like the embarrassing speech at the wedding that gets funny over time.

Anyway back to the revolution, first motion, ban all premises selling caffeine based products after 9pm.
I agree there will be a Longford seat - both candidates seem a bit low-profile but one of them will get it. I would have thought FF were in with a better shot. Surely Bannon is gone?

Obviously one of the Westmeath TD's will lose out - I'm not certain Penrose will retire, and if he doesn't I would think his chances of holding on are about 50/50. Burke and Troy are safe, leaving the last seat between Penrose (if he runs), Boxer and Hogan (again if he runs). Hogan's falling out with the party will surely have damaged him, although he has been knocking on the door here for a decade, but if they try to run someone I would not rate their chances at all.

So on balance FF 2, FG 1 Lab 1 if Penrose runs, and FF 2, FG 1 and Boxer otherwise.
 


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