Look on the bright side about the Irish economy

Ard-Taoiseach

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746
Hi all,

I'm not exactly a new user to the website, having lurked it the past few weeks and read the threads with interest whenever they turned up in Google search results and the like.

The 'Economy' sector interests me specifically and its been fascinating to see the spread of views on the future of the Irish economy.

From what I can see, Ireland's vital statistics this yerar have been like this:

Export growth of 9% on the same months last year.

Import growth of 6% on the same months last year.

Car-Sales growth of about 7% since the beginning of the year.

Overall retail sales growth of now 9.9% on last year(a six year high)

Jobs growth of 3.8% in the first quarter of the year. This is equivalent to the US generating 5.5 million jobs in the first quarter compared to last year. Not shabby.

An unemployment rate which remains broadly unchanged at 4-4.75%, with long-term unemployment a negligible 1.3% and a youth unemploymet rate of 5.9% the lowest in the EU.

The Industrial production/Turnover indices published by the CSO trade firmly above thetrend set in 2006, a year in which our GDP grew by 5.7%

Facts and truths like these have been routinely highlighted by on this site, and yet have been regularly ignored and attacked by some quarters on this site. I think this is unfair and call on posters to recognise the exceptional growth of our economy and to stop criticising posters lwho comment on that.
 


CookieMonster

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P.ie doesn't tend to allow threads about individual posters.
 

Xipe Totec

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Re: Lay off freedomlover!!!!

Ard-Taoiseach said:
Hi all,

I'm not exactly a new user to the website, having lurked it the past few weeks and read the threads with interest whenever they turned up in Google search results and the like.

The 'Economy' sector interests me specifically and its been fascinating to see the spread of views on the future of the Irish economy.

From what I can see, Ireland's vital statistics this yerar have been like this:

Export growth of 9% on the same months last year.

Import growth of 6% on the same months last year.

Car-Sales growth of about 7% since the beginning of the year.

Overall retail sales growth of now 9.9% on last year(a six year high)

Jobs growth of 3.8% in the first quarter of the year. This is equivalent to the US generating 5.5 million jobs in the first quarter compared to last year. Not shabby.

An unemployment rate which remains broadly unchanged at 4-4.75%, with long-term unemployment a negligible 1.3% and a youth unemploymet rate of 5.9% the lowest in the EU.

The Industrial production/Turnover indices published by the CSO trade firmly above thetrend set in 2006, a year in which our GDP grew by 5.7%

Facts and truths like these have been routinely highlighted by freedomlover, and yet have been regularly ignored and attacked by some quarters on this site. I think this is unfair and call on posters to recognise the exceptional growth of our economy and to stop attacking posters like freedomlover who comment on that.
Could you please define what you mean by ´growth`, and explain why it is good? Tia!
 

Ard-Taoiseach

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What I mean about growth is that the CSO has recorded an increase in thos levels of activities, as have other organisations like SIMI for the car-sales figures.

I would say growth in exports is good as it rebalances the economy away from the building trade.

Growth in retail sales is good as it drives expansion of shops and supermarkets and provides jobs.

Growth in the economy in general leads to higher tax revenue and allows our government to raise social welfare payments, pensions, disability benefit and so on. it also allows us to spend on infrastructural programmes with greater confidence.
 

Xipe Totec

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Nov 12, 2005
Messages
122
Ard-Taoiseach said:
What I mean about growth is that the CSO has recorded an increase in thos levels of activities, as have other organisations like SIMI for the car-sales figures.

I would say growth in exports is good as it rebalances the economy away from the building trade.

Growth in retail sales is good as it drives expansion of shops and supermarkets and provides jobs.

Growth in the economy in general leads to higher tax revenue and allows our government to raise social welfare payments, pensions, disability benefit and so on. it also allows us to spend on infrastructural programmes with greater confidence.
Do you define growth differently to development?

Why is big favourable to better?
 

Ard-Taoiseach

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Well, growth is part of development as it allows for deeper and more sophisticated things to happen. Look at areas of technology such as the internet and mobile telephony, the growth of uptake and the increase of size in these areas led to a much richer level of services and opportunities in these areas.

Similarly, the growth of sectors of our economy allows us the space and possibility to do much more. What would not have been justified in a market of €1 billion and 100,000 customers becomes viable in a market of €3 billion and 300,000 customers. This means our economy becomes more broadly based and less exposed to sector-specific risks.

On the topic of bigger being favourable to better, I am of the opinion that in most cases you can have both. I mean, our economy and population are larger than 20 years ago and haveecome better: the labour force is more educated, social mobility has improved, economic opportunity has widened, consistent and relative poverty have declined, life expectancy and public health have both improved and areas of discrimination once common are a thing of the past.
 

Ard-Taoiseach

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HanleyS

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Ard-Taoiseach said:
Well, growth is part of development as it allows for deeper and more sophisticated things to happen. Look at areas of technology such as the internet and mobile telephony, the growth of uptake and the increase of size in these areas led to a much richer level of services and opportunities in these areas.
What exactly does this mean? BTW, did you miss Motorola closing down?
Ard-Taoiseach said:
Similarly, the growth of sectors of our economy allows us the space and possibility to do much more. What would not have been justified in a market of €1 billion and 100,000 customers becomes viable in a market of €3 billion and 300,000 customers. This means our economy becomes more broadly based and less exposed to sector-specific risks.
Our economy is based on transfer pricing and property. You mention below that commercial property is healthy. This is little consolation to homeowners saddled with huge debt. Are people like yourself trying to shift the hype over to commercial property? Should we all be getting in early and buying second offices in the sun? How about actually building real value that can be exported?
 

Ard-Taoiseach

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There is no hype in commercial property. Its there, growth in take-up, rents and construction meaning that positive commentary is fully grounded. If the coverage was as positive as it is now, but with no growth, I would agree with you HanleyS and say it was hype, however, an awful lot of companies are buying up an awful lot of space and if that isn't an indicator of economic strength, I don't know what is.

I am sad that Motorola closed down and take this opportunity commiserate with the 300 odd people who lost their jobs. However, Motorola's decision, like Pfizer's had much more to do with the deficiencies within the company and not with Ireland being an unattractive location.

Look at Nokia's recent figures, they've ramped up market share and squeezed rivals like Motorola, if that didn't happen, we wouldn't be talking about this closure now.

pfizer scaled back its plants because a blockbuster drug failed in its trials and led to €15 billion in future revenue pa being written off. With Lpitor, its bestselling $11billion drug coming out off patent protection Pfizer had to find savings fast. Again, if that drug sailed through FDA procedures we wouldn't be talking about this closure, in fact Pfizer was planning to produce 40% of the drug right here.
 

Odyessus

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Re: Lay off freedomlover!!!!

Xipe Totec said:
[quote="Ard-Taoiseach":12pvbgu0]Hi all,

I'm not exactly a new user to the website, having lurked it the past few weeks and read the threads with interest whenever they turned up in Google search results and the like.

The 'Economy' sector interests me specifically and its been fascinating to see the spread of views on the future of the Irish economy.

From what I can see, Ireland's vital statistics this yerar have been like this:

Export growth of 9% on the same months last year.

Import growth of 6% on the same months last year.

Car-Sales growth of about 7% since the beginning of the year.

Overall retail sales growth of now 9.9% on last year(a six year high)

Jobs growth of 3.8% in the first quarter of the year. This is equivalent to the US generating 5.5 million jobs in the first quarter compared to last year. Not shabby.

An unemployment rate which remains broadly unchanged at 4-4.75%, with long-term unemployment a negligible 1.3% and a youth unemploymet rate of 5.9% the lowest in the EU.

The Industrial production/Turnover indices published by the CSO trade firmly above thetrend set in 2006, a year in which our GDP grew by 5.7%

Facts and truths like these have been routinely highlighted by freedomlover, and yet have been regularly ignored and attacked by some quarters on this site. I think this is unfair and call on posters to recognise the exceptional growth of our economy and to stop attacking posters like freedomlover who comment on that.
Could you please define what you mean by ´growth`, and explain why it is good? Tia![/quote:12pvbgu0]



It is the opposite to "contraction" too much of which leads to "recession", which economists call "bad."

Ask you teacher to explain it to you.
 

Owen Rooney

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May 27, 2007
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HanleyS said:
Our economy is based on transfer pricing and property. You mention below that commercial property is healthy. This is little consolation to homeowners saddled with huge debt. Are people like yourself trying to shift the hype over to commercial property? Should we all be getting in early and buying second offices in the sun? How about actually building real value that can be exported?
The "hype" over development and use of commercial property isn't as a measure of the wealth or value of the property itself, it's an indication that businesses are thriving and continuing to expand their operations.
 

freedomlover

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Messages
198
Ard-Taoiseach said:
Hi all,

I'm not exactly a new user to the website, having lurked it the past few weeks and read the threads with interest whenever they turned up in Google search results and the like.

The 'Economy' sector interests me specifically and its been fascinating to see the spread of views on the future of the Irish economy.

From what I can see, Ireland's vital statistics this yerar have been like this:

Export growth of 9% on the same months last year.

Import growth of 6% on the same months last year.

Car-Sales growth of about 7% since the beginning of the year.

Overall retail sales growth of now 9.9% on last year(a six year high)

Jobs growth of 3.8% in the first quarter of the year. This is equivalent to the US generating 5.5 million jobs in the first quarter compared to last year. Not shabby.

An unemployment rate which remains broadly unchanged at 4-4.75%, with long-term unemployment a negligible 1.3% and a youth unemploymet rate of 5.9% the lowest in the EU.

The Industrial production/Turnover indices published by the CSO trade firmly above thetrend set in 2006, a year in which our GDP grew by 5.7%

Facts and truths like these have been routinely highlighted by on this site, and yet have been regularly ignored and attacked by some quarters on this site. I think this is unfair and call on posters to recognise the exceptional growth of our economy and to stop criticising posters lwho comment on that.
Excellent posts, Ard-Taoiseach. But, remember that there are some people on here and in the media whose only pleasure in life is predicting the imminent demise of the Irish economy. I honestly believe that in a year or so, when the much-predicted economic collapse has failed to materialise, they're going to require counselling.
 

Ard-Taoiseach

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Aug 11, 2007
Messages
746
True Owen, it's one of the best indicators of how businesses are doing and how the economy in areas like exports, jobs growth and business investment is performing. With these CBRE reports, it looks like 2007 is going to be a pretty good year.
 

Odyessus

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Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
12,890
freedomlover said:
Ard-Taoiseach said:
Hi all,

I'm not exactly a new user to the website, having lurked it the past few weeks and read the threads with interest whenever they turned up in Google search results and the like.

The 'Economy' sector interests me specifically and its been fascinating to see the spread of views on the future of the Irish economy.

From what I can see, Ireland's vital statistics this yerar have been like this:

Export growth of 9% on the same months last year.

Import growth of 6% on the same months last year.

Car-Sales growth of about 7% since the beginning of the year.

Overall retail sales growth of now 9.9% on last year(a six year high)

Jobs growth of 3.8% in the first quarter of the year. This is equivalent to the US generating 5.5 million jobs in the first quarter compared to last year. Not shabby.

An unemployment rate which remains broadly unchanged at 4-4.75%, with long-term unemployment a negligible 1.3% and a youth unemploymet rate of 5.9% the lowest in the EU.

The Industrial production/Turnover indices published by the CSO trade firmly above thetrend set in 2006, a year in which our GDP grew by 5.7%

Facts and truths like these have been routinely highlighted by on this site, and yet have been regularly ignored and attacked by some quarters on this site. I think this is unfair and call on posters to recognise the exceptional growth of our economy and to stop criticising posters lwho comment on that.
Excellent posts, Ard-Taoiseach. But, remember that there are some people on here and in the media whose only pleasure in life is predicting the imminent demise of the Irish economy. I honestly believe that in a year or so, when the much-predicted economic collapse has failed to materialise, they're going to require counselling.



Not at all. They are like the people with "The End of the World is Nigh" placards. They figure they've got to be right eventually.
 

HanleyS

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Ard-Taoiseach said:
There is no hype in commercial property. Its there, growth in take-up, rents and construction meaning that positive commentary is fully grounded. If the coverage was as positive as it is now, but with no growth, I would agree with you HanleyS and say it was hype, however, an awful lot of companies are buying up an awful lot of space and if that isn't an indicator of economic strength, I don't know what is.
Commercial property is healthy, thank god. Especially from my perspective because I have vested interests there. You can't take strong performance from one sector and make a generalistion about the economy as a whole. All this talk of strong performance in the commercial sector is trying to pin people's hopes on that sector as a saviour of the economy. Effectively putting all our eggs in the one basket again. I believe this is very unhealthy.

I was speaking frankly with a representative from the CFI who declined to be quoted on any of our conversation. That person thought that a soft landing in the construction secotr could come from three things:
1) A strong housing market in NI which will draw labour from the south.
2) Demand for labour in the construction of facilities for the London Olympics in 2012.
3) A strong commercial property market in ROI.

A construction sector does not an economy make.
Ard-Taoiseach said:
I am sad that Motorola closed down and take this opportunity commiserate with the 300 odd people who lost their jobs. However, Motorola's decision, like Pfizer's had much more to do with the deficiencies within the company and not with Ireland being an unattractive location.
If you think Ireland is doing well in the technology sector then you are deluding yourself. The state of our broadband infrastructure alone would be a factor in scaring off most multinationals. Our indigenous firms have got where they are through a lot of blood sweat and tears. These guys would have done a lot better if they had concentrated their efforts on property in the last ten years but thankfully they had the vision or the interest to do otherwise. Those people have had to fight very hard for the money they needed over the last ten years. if they hadn't then we might have a more healthy economy.
Ard-Taoiseach said:
Look at Nokia's recent figures, they've ramped up market share and squeezed rivals like Motorola, if that didn't happen, we wouldn't be talking about this closure now.
Nokia are not in Ireland and we have not grown our own alternative to Nokia so that has little to do with us.
Ard-Taoiseach said:
pfizer scaled back its plants because a blockbuster drug failed in its trials and led to €15 billion in future revenue pa being written off. With Lpitor, its bestselling $11billion drug coming out off patent protection Pfizer had to find savings fast. Again, if that drug sailed through FDA procedures we wouldn't be talking about this closure, in fact Pfizer was planning to produce 40% of the drug right here.
Again little consolation to us. We are not get the bio-pharma investment either.
 

Ard-Taoiseach

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freedomlover said:
Excellent posts, Ard-Taoiseach. But, remember that there are some people on here and in the media whose only pleasure in life is predicting the imminent demise of the Irish economy. I honestly believe that in a year or so, when the much-predicted economic collapse has failed to materialise, they're going to require counselling.
Thanks, freedomlover and the surge in counselling demand is going to lead to above-trend growth in prfessional services leading to more exceptional national Accounts figures from the CSO
 

HanleyS

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Owen Rooney said:
The "hype" over development and use of commercial property isn't as a measure of the wealth or value of the property itself, it's an indication that businesses are thriving and continuing to expand their operations.
Or that speculators are shifting their interests from residential to commercial. Many businesses have a policy of not owning their own premises. Including most of the multinational retailers that occupy the retail parks scattered around the country.
 

clareman51

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People have been crying wolf for the past three years. They're going to be right sometime. According to the above figures, it will not be immediately.
 


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