Louth: call the next GE

sic transit

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Louth is a five seater and stretches from the border down to and including parts of Meath down to Laytown.


Current TDs

Gerry Adams SF
Fergus O' Dowd FG
Imelda Munster- SF
Peter Fitzpatrick FG
Declan Breathnach FF

Conventional wisdom on the constituency is that there is a Dundalk and a Drogheda TD. Another feature is that it requires careful vote management to get 2 seats. The two points of interest here are the retirement of Adams and the departure of Fitzpatrick from FG. On the basis of that O'Dowd and Breathnach should be returned and the interest will be in the final three seats.

FG have selected Cllr John McGahon as a running mate and he will go head to head against Fitzpatrick in Dundalk and clearly after the the young vote at under 30.

FF have gone for Anthony Moore, who's based in the South Louth/East Meath, to run alongside Breathnach.

Finally SF have gone for Dundalk man Cllr Ruairi O'Murchu to replace Adams.

Add in the usual run from the ever-present Green Mark Deary and of course Ged Nash with some likely indos/PBP and that's runners and riders.

The outcome is likely to leave most seats unchanged assuming the vote management is done properly.

O'Dowd, Breathnach and probably Munster (as the incumbent) should be returned. FG would feel confident of getting the second TD, given the support Fitzpatrick has needed. I don't believe Fitzpatrick as an independent can get re-elected.

As SF don't have that personal Adams vote their vote management will be absolutely crucial and they may clinch that fourth/last seat.

So FF 1, FG 1, SF 1 and SF/FF/Lab/FG fighting for those final two seats. My feeling at this point is no change in seats for parties so FG & SF for those seats but who knows how FF/Lab will fare in that battle.
 
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D

Deleted member 39930

Louth is a five seater and stretches from the border down to and including parts of Meath down to Laytown.


Current TDs

Gerry Adams SF
Fergus O' Dowd FG
Imelda Munster- SF
Peter Fitzpatrick FG
Declan Breathnach FF

Conventional wisdom on the constituency is that there is a Dundalk and a Drogheda TD. Another feature is that it requires careful vote management to get 2 seats. The two points of interest here are the retirement of Adams and the departure of Fitzpatrick from FG. On the basis of that O'Dowd and Breathnach should be returned and the interest will be in the final three seats.

FG have selected Cllr John McGahon as a running mate and he will go head to head against Fitzpatrick in Dundalk and clearly after the the young vote at under 30.

FF have gone for Anthony Moore to run alongside Breathnach, who's based in the South Louth/East Meath.

Finally SF have gone for Dundalk man Cllr Ruairi O'Murchu to replace Adams.

Add in the usual run from the ever-present Green Mark Deary and of course Ged Nash with some likely indos/PBP and that's runners and riders.

The outcome is likely to leave most seats unchanged assuming the vote management is done properly.

O'Dowd, Breathnach and probably Munster (as the incumbent) should be returned. FG would feel confident of getting the second TD, given the support Fitzpatrick has needed. I don't believe Fitzpatrick as an independent can get re-elected.

As SF don't have that personal Adams vote their vote management will be absolutely crucial and they may clinch that fourth/last seat.

So FF 1, FG 1, SF 1 and SF/FF/Lab/FG fighting for those final two seats. My feeling at this point is no change in seats for parties so FG & SF for those seats but who knows how FF/Lab will fare in that battle.
I suspect Adams will be canvassing for SF, but post this ge, I think you are right.

I think two SF, and one each FF and FG. Absolutely no chance of a Labour comeback.
 

sic transit

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I suspect Adams will be canvassing for SF, but post this ge, I think you are right.

I think two SF, and one each FF and FG. Absolutely no chance of a Labour comeback.
Fifth is likely to be a complete tossup, FG probably because they've had to pull the weaker partner up with a vote getter, twice. Don't knock Nash completely, he's one of those "liked locally" candidates. He wasn't that far off the last time.
 
D

Deleted member 39930

Fifth is likely to be a complete tossup, FG probably because they've had to pull the weaker partner up with a vote getter, twice. Don't knock Nash completely, he's one of those "liked locally" candidates. He wasn't that far off the last time.
I agree re Nash being liked, but, Labour's stock has fallen further since the last GE, plus there's the attendant lack of media exposure.
 

statsman

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2 SF seems a big ask.
 

sic transit

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2 SF seems a big ask.
Which is why I mentioned the vote management. SF share was 28% but nearly 16% was Adams alone in 2016. Munster polled nearly 2000 fewer votes than Adams and the new guy may not get enough FPVs, which would certainly see FG with 2 and maybe FF a second one. If Munster vote slides then Nash is in with a shout. No change for me but tight and there is potential for one or more surprises.
 
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sic transit

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lostexpectation

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FG have asked him to step down ‘Assault’ councillor refuses to withdraw from Fine Gael general election ticket | Ireland | The Sunday Times he is said to be refusing....

So he never mentioned the case before he was selected.

The day after he was selected he went on LMFM and was asked multiple times was he ever in a fight and he said no and he didn't know why he was being asked... The Michael Reade Show | LMFM Show Info | LMFM
after 20 minutes

he then went on the programme a couple of weeks later and admitted he had been in fight a few months before The Michael Reade Show | LMFM Show Info | LMFM


what a character
Kenneth Egan OLY ✔ @kenegan30

https://twitter.com/kenegan30/status/1027929664017362950


Putting @John_McGahon through his paces in @CitywestHLClub getting ready for the biggest fight of his career.... #naturaltalent

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/kenegan30/status/1027929664017362950?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw[/TWEET]
 
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sic transit

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FG have asked him to step down ‘Assault’ councillor refuses to withdraw from Fine Gael general election ticket | Ireland | The Sunday Times he is said to be refusing....

So he never mentioned the case before he was selected.

The day after he was selected he went on LMFM and was asked multiple times was he ever in a fight and he said no nad he didn't know why he was being asked... The Michael Reade Show | LMFM Show Info | LMFM
after 20 minutes

he then went on the programme a couple of weeks later and admitted he had been in fight a few months before The Michael Reade Show | LMFM Show Info | LMFM


what a character
Awkward decision for FG here if he doesn't stand aside as letting him fall loses them a seat and supporting him probably leaves them in the same boat anyway. Wonder what procedures parties have in place for "forcibly" deselecting candidates who they change their minds about?
 

lostexpectation

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Awkward decision for FG here if he doesn't stand aside as letting him fall loses them a seat and supporting him probably leaves them in the same boat anyway. Wonder what procedures parties have in place for "forcibly" deselecting candidates who they change their minds about?
from the article “All candidates are made aware of the Fine Gael code of conduct and you can be removed as a candidate if you are found to have been in breach of that code,” said the senior party figure.

https://www.finegael.ie/app/uploads/2017/05/FG-Constitution-2014-Aug.pdf Executive's powers pg 26
(xiv)
To lay down from time to time a code of conduct
for persons offering themselves for election and
co-option and persons who have been selected as
candidates under these Rules and for the behaviour
of Members and Officers at all levels in the Party
which Code shall contain inter alia provisions
relating to co-options to Local Authority and other
public bodies and rules requiring notification to the
Constituency Executive and Executive Council of all
occasions for co-options as soon as they shall occur.
etc
 

sic transit

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from the article “All candidates are made aware of the Fine Gael code of conduct and you can be removed as a candidate if you are found to have been in breach of that code,” said the senior party figure.

https://www.finegael.ie/app/uploads/2017/05/FG-Constitution-2014-Aug.pdf Executive's powers pg 26 etc
Thanks for that. So fall on the sword or get pushed!

Also Article VIII seems appropriate here.

On the proposal of the Party Leader to determine what measures should be taken in the event of the death, incapacity or withdrawal of any candidate who has previously been selected at a convention for a Borough/Town Council, Local Authority Election or Dáil Election or European Election, which measures may include a new convention with a geographical directive and/or a restricted franchise,a reconvened convention at which all candidates previously selected must submit themselves or any other measure the Executive Council considers appropriate.
 

automaticforthepeople

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The constituency is actually Louth and East Meath. You can divide it politically into 4 regions, Dundalk and Cooley to the north, mid County Louth around Ardee, Drogheda and finally the bit that most people forget, the Dubs that live in Meath because they cannot afford to live in Dublin and were screwed over royally on prices in the royal county.There's a fair number of votes south of the Boyne with no actual Co Meath based candidate. In 2011 many of these voted for Labour's Dominic Hanigan who lived in the area. The 2015 redraw sent those into Louth. These voters are hugely fluid and turned elsewhere in 2016, many to Sinn Fein.
SF have peaked nationally, Adams had national recognition. Thomas Sharkey was "encouraged" to offer up his own aspirations in 2011 for the good of the movement. almost 8 years later he's still left on the shelf. Louth is going to be a real dogfight.
At the last election the PBP candidate transferred heavily to FG to elect Peter Fitzpatrick. I can only put that down to PBP candidate being from Dundalk and voting locally. Fitzpatricks views on things moral are a polar opposite to PBP or we're supposed tom believe that anyway.
Fitzpatrick won't get that level of transfer, indeed PBP won't have the number of votes they got the last time either. Also in 2016 while SF wanted to ensure Munster benefited from a strong vote in the south end of the constituency Adams did take a fair number of votes south of the Dee.
On that basis of less unusual transfer patterns in the northern end of Louth and a lower likelihood of SF votes in the area south of Drogheda going anywhere other than to Munster will hold her vote but SF's replacement for Adams will poll poorly here meaning that there is a lower likelihood of SF getting 2.

So Fitzpatrick is gone, Adams is retired, Breatnach will hold, Fergal O'Dowd now a backbencher will poll lower than in 2016. The man to watch is Ged Nash of Labour unless Brendan Ogle puts up or shuts up and stirs the pot in the Dundalk end again.

SF 1 FF 1 FG 1 then 2 seats between Labour, SF, FG and FF. Take your pick. No chance of an independent
 

sic transit

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The constituency is actually Louth and East Meath. You can divide it politically into 4 regions, Dundalk and Cooley to the north, mid County Louth around Ardee, Drogheda and finally the bit that most people forget, the Dubs that live in Meath because they cannot afford to live in Dublin and were screwed over royally on prices in the royal county.There's a fair number of votes south of the Boyne with no actual Co Meath based candidate. In 2011 many of these voted for Labour's Dominic Hanigan who lived in the area. The 2015 redraw sent those into Louth. These voters are hugely fluid and turned elsewhere in 2016, many to Sinn Fein.
SF have peaked nationally, Adams had national recognition. Thomas Sharkey was "encouraged" to offer up his own aspirations in 2011 for the good of the movement. almost 8 years later he's still left on the shelf. Louth is going to be a real dogfight.
At the last election the PBP candidate transferred heavily to FG to elect Peter Fitzpatrick. I can only put that down to PBP candidate being from Dundalk and voting locally. Fitzpatricks views on things moral are a polar opposite to PBP or we're supposed tom believe that anyway.
Fitzpatrick won't get that level of transfer, indeed PBP won't have the number of votes they got the last time either. Also in 2016 while SF wanted to ensure Munster benefited from a strong vote in the south end of the constituency Adams did take a fair number of votes south of the Dee.
On that basis of less unusual transfer patterns in the northern end of Louth and a lower likelihood of SF votes in the area south of Drogheda going anywhere other than to Munster will hold her vote but SF's replacement for Adams will poll poorly here meaning that there is a lower likelihood of SF getting 2.

So Fitzpatrick is gone, Adams is retired, Breatnach will hold, Fergal O'Dowd now a backbencher will poll lower than in 2016. The man to watch is Ged Nash of Labour unless Brendan Ogle puts up or shuts up and stirs the pot in the Dundalk end again.

SF 1 FF 1 FG 1 then 2 seats between Labour, SF, FG and FF. Take your pick. No chance of an independent
PBP Gareth Weldon is not running this time. Don't see Ogle bothering, always thought it was more of media story and being out of Dundalk, far too much competition now and we're still waiting on his "political party".
 

fgrep

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A former FG colleague of mine Kevin Callan will also run as an Indo. Did OK last time.
 

sic transit

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A former FG colleague of mine Kevin Callan will also run as an Indo. Did OK last time.
He might do OK again but very hard for any independent to get in.
 

Dame_Enda

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The defection of Peter Fitzpatrick to Ind has thrown the cat among the pigeons. If he hasnt been reconciled before the GE, and FG insist on running 2 candidates, then the second FG seat is in doubt.

A Labour seat here can't be entirely ruled out, given they came within 400 votes of it during the meltdown of 2011. My reading right now is: 1 FF, probably 2 SF, 1 FG, and the last seat between FG, Ind (Fitzpatrick) and Labour.

One problem for Fitzpatrick is that he is now associated with the pro-life wing of FG, and that may hurt him with pro-choice voters including on transfers. Louth voted 2-1 to repeal the 8th.
 

sic transit

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The defection of Peter Fitzpatrick to Ind has thrown the cat among the pigeons. If he hasnt been reconciled before the GE, and FG insist on running 2 candidates, then the second FG seat is in doubt.

A Labour seat here can't be entirely ruled out, given they came within 400 votes of it during the meltdown of 2011. My reading right now is: 1 FF, probably 2 SF, 1 FG, and the last seat between FG, Ind (Fitzpatrick) and Labour.
Fitzpatrick hasn't a hope. The only reason he got in both times was because of the FG vote management. Nash may be in with a shout but more likely 2 for two of the other parties.
 


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