Louth opinion poll?



Pat Mc Larnon

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 8, 2006
Messages
5,570
On the Ahern thread it is also mentioned that a poll by a local bookmaker has Adams on 37%. A figure that if replicated at the GE would easily secure SF two seats.
There is no detail and no link. Usually this would be a bit of a kite flyer but the Boyle Sports poll by RedC in Donegal SW was right on the money with SF on 40%. What's that about bookies never losing etc?
 
D

Duth Ealla

Folks,

Sorry if this is covered elsewhere (couldn't find anything), but Nick Coffey on Morning Ireland said something today about a poll in Louth that showed Adams in the high 30s (also apparently O'Dowd & Nash in) - has anyone else heard details of this?

D
Interesting. Could be the reason why arch-gombeen Dermot pulled out. Only 4 people accounted for with above. Who would have been the 5th . I would think Dermo but maybe it wsa cold
 

Cai

Well-known member
Joined
May 30, 2004
Messages
8,003
On the Ahern thread it is also mentioned that a poll by a local bookmaker has Adams on 37%. A figure that if replicated at the GE would easily secure SF two seats.
There is no detail and no link. Usually this would be a bit of a kite flyer but the Boyle Sports poll by RedC in Donegal SW was right on the money with SF on 40%. What's that about bookies never losing etc?
A poll 'by a local bookmaker' & a RedC comissioned by a bookmaker are two very different things.
 

Pat Mc Larnon

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 8, 2006
Messages
5,570
A poll 'by a local bookmaker' & a RedC comissioned by a bookmaker are two very different things.
No sh*t Sherlock. As I stated, it is mentioned on the Ahern thread, there is no detail and no link. It simply says a poll by a local bookmaker. It doesn't mention if it was commissioned or otherwise. I was pointing dotski in the direction of where the figures first emanated.
 

fgrep

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 8, 2009
Messages
1,216
Bookmaking is a great cash business- especially in border areas!
 

gijoe

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 26, 2010
Messages
15,237
The poll mentioned on Morning Ireland put Gerry Adams on 37/38% with Fergus O'Dowd 2nd and Ger Nash 3rd. It mentioned Mairead McGuinness for the 4th seat. Suggesting that Ahern would have lost his seat if he ran. Which means, if their is any validity to the poll, that FF can forget winning any of the 4 contested seats here.

They also mentioned Peadear Toibin of SF in Meath West polling 20%.
 

gijoe

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 26, 2010
Messages
15,237
A poll 'by a local bookmaker' & a RedC comissioned by a bookmaker are two very different things.
It was PaddyPower that commissioned the subsequently proved broadly accurate Donegal poll.
 

Skypeme

Well-known member
Joined
May 19, 2010
Messages
1,914
Bookmaking is a great cash business- especially in border areas!
Quite a lot of cash business in border areas, but why not - they have an election to pay for, keep the ciggies and the diesel moving, burn the odd speed van as a warning, send in the heavies to enforce co-operation, a quiet word in the local pub.....

Nice 'republic' to look forward to in the future.
 

Keith-M

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 24, 2007
Messages
15,668
Website
www.allkindsofeverything.ie
Adams at 37% BEFORE Ahern pulled out suggests SF could certainly get two here. It's 1 FF(CC) 1FG 1 SF and perm 2 from FF, FG (esp if McGuinnes comes back), LP and a second shinner.
 

CorkHurler

Well-known member
Joined
May 12, 2004
Messages
545
Nick Coffey has a dreadful record at predicting elections. His forecasts were miles off on the last three occasions. He does seem to be hawking himself around every studio and paper in the country at the moment, his RTE pension mustn't be enough to live on.
 

Pat Mc Larnon

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 8, 2006
Messages
5,570
Nick Coffey has a dreadful record at predicting elections. His forecasts were miles off on the last three occasions. He does seem to be hawking himself around every studio and paper in the country at the moment, his RTE pension mustn't be enough to live on.
Agreed. there doesn't seem to be a great amount of detail, sample size and who carried it out etc.
From a SF point of view it is just another positive story (whether valid or not) to compliment a recent series of positive stories. Momentum is everything.
 

Social Conscience

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 27, 2010
Messages
1,273
I think Senator James Carroll should not be discounted for the final seat in Louth.
 

hiding behind a poster

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
49,005
Whatever poll might have been taken, its irrelevant now with Ahern out of the picture.
 

turdsl

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 2, 2008
Messages
26,002
It is very obvious now that Dermot could not stand the indignity of been trounced by Adams in the general election, It certainly gives him his answer to his national and local service.in plain language no longer required, so Dermot decided to run with his pension.
 

rockofcashel

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 23, 2005
Messages
8,001
Website
www.sinnfein.ie
SF won't go for two here, because unless the CC steps down, there won't be two seats for them to win. Gerry will push on alone, with a view to topping the poll.
 

holymoley

Active member
Joined
Jul 11, 2010
Messages
164
You'd think that if fianna fail can get around the 17% for a candidate they would still be in the running here. Big boots to fill for any 1st time candidate though.
If McGuinness runs, there are definitely 2 seats for fg here.

I'd say the last seat would be between labour and fianna fail. Don't think Gerry will run the risk of running a second candidate in his one and only shot of getting into the Dail.
 

hiding behind a poster

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
49,005
You'd think that if fianna fail can get around the 17% for a candidate they would still be in the running here. Big boots to fill for any 1st time candidate though.
If McGuinness runs, there are definitely 2 seats for fg here.

I'd say the last seat would be between labour and fianna fail. Don't think Gerry will run the risk of running a second candidate in his one and only shot of getting into the Dail.
You may well be right there. As it stands, McGuinness can now eat into Kirk's vote in rural Louth, and the absence of Ahern gives FG the incentive to run Jim D'Arcy in Dundalk again, where there should be more votes up for grabs. Problem for Labour is the new votes now coming into play with Ahertn's departure are Dundalk votes - and Labour got less than 800 votes in Dundalk in 2009, against 4,800 for SF and 5,000 for FG.
 


Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top