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Louth

davehiggz

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Series of threads on each constituency:

ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Louth First Preference Votes

Currently: 2 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF

Louth becomes a five seater and the coastal area of Meath is added to it.

5 seats means firstly that there'll be two for FG. Fergus O'Dowd to retain his seat and MEP Mairead McGuinness will get it easily, helped by her exposure as MEP.

5 seats also means that Arthur Morgan should get re-elected. The SF vote was up slightly in the locals to 17.4% which is just over the 16.6% quota needed in a 5-seater.

That leaves two seats spare and I think they'll probably go to Fianna Fáil. The local vote for them was 23.7%. They're short of the 33.3% vote needed for two seats however with Dermot Ahern up there he should bring in the second candidate easily. Remember he's a contender for the party leadership so his vote could even rise.

I predict: 2 FF, 2 FG and 1 SF
 


Irish LibDem

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And what about the 8,500 votes that Labpur got in the locals in the new Louth constituency. Have you considered the fact that Mareid is from Ardee and that the Meath coastal area is part of greater Drogheda where Labour are strrongest.
 

davehiggz

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And what about the 8,500 votes that Labour got in the locals in the new Louth constituency. Have you considered the fact that Mareid is from Ardee and that the Meath coastal area is part of greater Drogheda where Labour are strrongest.
Ok, yeah I was confused about those boundary changes. I thought the Meath coastal area would remain part of Meath County council?

RTÉ News: Elections 2009 - Louth County Council

I was looking at these figures. 7% for the Greens! I would image a strong transfer to FF there along with their own 24% vote = 30% FF. With other transfers that is two seats, unfortunately.

SF definetly have a seat, they had 17% in the locals and then the other two for FG.

Labour only had 11% and while that was up by 6%, it's not a seat in my view.

That's based on those figures anyway.
 

pjoz

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Both FF seats Safe, SF seat safe,I FG seat for definate and between FG and Labour for final seat,possibly labour in my opinion
 

LIMARE

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Feb 23, 2006
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Depending on when the election is held I dont think there will be such a thing as a safe second FF seat. On a local election vote of 23% down 6% there is no guarantee or safe seat for FF. I would rather think it more likely to be 2FG,1SF,1FF and FF and Lab in a battle for the last. But as a week is a long time in politics I guess two more years make this predicition fairly redundant.

PS I dont think we will have to worry about Green tranfers as with the faith of all small parties who coalesce with FF they are in for a ravaging one way or the other.
 

pjoz

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If FF are on 25-30% nationally, there is simply no way that their 2 seats in Louth are "safe"
Given the 2 sitting FF TDs in Louth and allowing for a fall in the FF vote I think its still a fair assessment that FF will gather almost 2 quotas of 1st pref votes and transfers will ensure that both sitting TDs retain their seats.People have to be realistic and admit the FF vote will hold up in some places and this is probably one of those places
 

adamirer

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Given the 2 sitting FF TDs in Louth and allowing for a fall in the FF vote I think its still a fair assessment that FF will gather almost 2 quotas of 1st pref votes and transfers will ensure that both sitting TDs retain their seats.People have to be realistic and admit the FF vote will hold up in some places and this is probably one of those places
Agreed. First four seats will be Ahern, 2 FG and SF. The last seat will probably be between Kirk (FF) and Labour, but labour are coming from a long was back - from behind a 3rd FF candidates in 2007 and FF got 2.11 quotas when it was a 4 seaters. They'll only need 9000 votes to make quota this time (down 2,000) and had 23,000+ first preference votes last time. The 2nd FF won't meet quota, but won't be far off.
 

fgrep

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When McGuinness was asked time and again during the Euros would she run for the Dail she said no. I really dont think she could brazenly go back on that, she would be letting a lot of us down that took her at her word.
 

adamirer

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When McGuinness was asked time and again during the Euros would she run for the Dail she said no. I really dont think she could brazenly go back on that, she would be letting a lot of us down that took her at her word.
FG will ask her to run, and shye'll do so in the 'national interest'. Its why i never vote for candidates (like Mary Lou mcDonald or Joe Higgins) who are mor einterested in being TDs than MEPS. I think de Burca, McGuinness, JP Phelan, Toireasa Ferris would/will all run in the next GE.
 
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FG are by no means certainties to win 2 in Louth. They have not won 2 here since 1954.

FG will run O' Dowd, who is solid. But Dundalk has 2 electoral areas and there was not a signifcant increase in the FG vote in this SF/FF bastion. They do not have a young, dynamic county counciller here, but rather Terry Brennan and Jim Darcy, two earnest gentlemen, but not exactly going to get the urban yummy mummies wetting their knickers to vote for them.

Kirk FF at 64, I think will retire. He was unbeaten in every GE he contested, and why destroy that record now? I think Thomas Byrne will move into Louth, run with Ahern and somebody from Mid Louth.

FG will run O' Dowd, probably Darcy, and somebody from Mid Louth. Can't see two seats though.

Labour to break through here providing no screw ups.
SF to hold.

So 2 FF, 1 Lab, 1FG, 1SF.
 

L.O. Dublin S.C.

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These are the type of areas that we must get elected in to come out of a GE in second place ahead of FF. If 11% is repeated then a Labour TD will be elected but it is repeating that 11% Local vote to a 11% General vote.
 
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Kirk's back in next dail so opens this constitutency up next time....

Ahern and O'Dowd are safe as one of them will be a Minister in next government.

Then its between second FGer, second FFer and Morgan for last two. McGuiness will probaly run again for Fine Gael and get seat. Fianna Fail have two young cllr's in Kirk area they could run and Tomas Sharkey isnt do Arthur Morgan any favours as of late....
 

fgrep

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Seems labour will be the big losers of Gilmores power play. Labour Cllr Eoin Holmes in Slane had an impressive vote in the Locals ( As had Bell in Louth ) and must have fancied his chances but with just four seats on offer I cant see it happening.
 

StillSetanta

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Labour Senator Dominic Hannigan has popped up in several local news stories this week along with the Labour Councillors. Could he be considering a run?
 

irish_bob

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FG are by no means certainties to win 2 in Louth. They have not won 2 here since 1954.

FG will run O' Dowd, who is solid. But Dundalk has 2 electoral areas and there was not a signifcant increase in the FG vote in this SF/FF bastion. They do not have a young, dynamic county counciller here, but rather Terry Brennan and Jim Darcy, two earnest gentlemen, but not exactly going to get the urban yummy mummies wetting their knickers to vote for them.

Kirk FF at 64, I think will retire. He was unbeaten in every GE he contested, and why destroy that record now? I think Thomas Byrne will move into Louth, run with Ahern and somebody from Mid Louth.

FG will run O' Dowd, probably Darcy, and somebody from Mid Louth. Can't see two seats though.

Labour to break through here providing no screw ups.
SF to hold.

So 2 FF, 1 Lab, 1FG, 1SF.


thomas byrne wont move into louth , his own constituence of meath east is so bereft of talent , he is a sure thing to retain his seat , mariead mc guinness made an awfull blunder not running in meath east in 2007 , its an incredibly weak constituency where as louth is full of heavy hitters
 

irish_bob

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Labour Senator Dominic Hannigan has popped up in several local news stories this week along with the Labour Councillors. Could he be considering a run?
dominic hannigan is a sure thing if he runs in meath east the next time , will most likely take the useless mary wallaces seat
 

flavirostris

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careful, don't call Mary useless or she'll come after you with a baseball bat

( She really is useless )
 

StillSetanta

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Then can concentrate on Drogheda but until they build their party structure up to the North of the county they're not going to take a seat in Louth.
 

White Horse

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Kirk's back in next dail so opens this constitutency up next time....

Ahern and O'Dowd are safe as one of them will be a Minister in next government.

Then its between second FGer, second FFer and Morgan for last two. McGuiness will probaly run again for Fine Gael and get seat. Fianna Fail have two young cllr's in Kirk area they could run and Tomas Sharkey isnt do Arthur Morgan any favours as of late....
Ahern and Morgan have the Dundalk vote, O'Dowd has the Drogheda vote. That leaves mid Louth/Ardee.

Kirk is highly regarded and is seen as bi-partizan. He picked up a lot of personal votes last time. With him not running, McGuinness (who also has cross party support) will get a free run.

Local factors are paramount in Louth, Dundalk people will not vote for a Drogheda candidate and vice versa.

Pulling Kirk out of the election hands a large part of the constituency to FG. It is very short-sighted of FF. They will struggle to get the vote back as Kirk is likely to retire by 2017.
 


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