• It has come to our attention that some users may have been "banned" when they tried to change their passwords after the site was hacked due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software. This would have occurred around the end of February and does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you believe you were affected by this, please contact a staff member or use the Contact us link at the bottom of any forum page.

M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time [2008 thread]


myksav

Well-known member
Joined
May 13, 2008
Messages
23,546
Does anyone think he is correct or just blowing wind?

My thoughts are that the economy won't be "booming" for quite a bit longer, minimum of 5 years, more likely ten before we have a noticable strong up-turn. We were too dependent on a single source, the building sector, to recover quickly.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

HanleyS

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 11, 2007
Messages
817
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

What exactly does Michael Martin believe this boom will be in exactly? Export of bouyant optimism?
 

Pauli

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 22, 2006
Messages
1,181
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

HanleyS said:
What exactly does Michael Martin believe this boom will be in exactly? Export of bouyant optimism?
High-octane plàmàs and premium-grade bullshit. Nobody does it better.
 

michael1965

Active member
Joined
Oct 4, 2005
Messages
143
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

myksav said:
Does anyone think he is correct or just blowing wind?
Nobody knows, but Martin is an optimist, and if more people believe him, he'll probably be right. If more believe you lot, then you'll be right :)
 

myksav

Well-known member
Joined
May 13, 2008
Messages
23,546
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

Pauli said:
HanleyS said:
What exactly does Michael Martin believe this boom will be in exactly? Export of bouyant optimism?
High-octane plàmàs and premium-grade ********. Nobody does it better.
Off the topic but how the heck do you get those accents on plamas? Which should be plámás. :?
 

rockyracoon

Active member
Joined
May 17, 2007
Messages
181
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

An economy is made up of much more than sentiment. I agree that sentiment has played a large part in economic growth in Anglo-US style economies in the last decade but at the expense of consumers taking on ever more debt in order to pay for their optomistic assesments. This has largely been accomplished through pumping up money supply while underreporting inflation. (China has helped dramatically by flooding the world with cheap good but their inflation rates are way above our own. A new source of cheap labour produced goods has to found quickly for the Anlgo-US model to keep working.)

As far as I'm concerned, if MM's happy, "don't worry" prediction comes true, it will be on the back of an expensive cost based economy and on further personal debt accumulation. One of the things that is keeping Ireland running somewhat smoothly, imo, is the shear amount of money people made during the last decade. The vast majority of this new found money is not from growth promoted industry but from people sitting on their backsides while their house/asset balloned through no effort of their own. There are many cases of people sitting on money through the sale of homes and land who are just spending a percentage while showing little capital growth adjusted for inflation or, worse, showing losses from riskier investments like equities.

Good times may be around the corner for the wealthy and for the middle classes according to MM, but the middle classes better watch their own backsides because next time its their turn to feel the downturn.

Young, savvy wage earners who haven't got themselves into the debt spiral are making the correct decision to emmigrate.
 

myksav

Well-known member
Joined
May 13, 2008
Messages
23,546
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

michael1965 said:
myksav said:
Does anyone think he is correct or just blowing wind?
Nobody knows, but Martin is an optimist, and if more people believe him, he'll probably be right. If more believe you lot, then you'll be right :)
Oh good, I'm part of a "lot". :roll:
I always thought is was 'silly' to have so much of our economy tied up in one sector. It left us too open to recession.

The question is what would create a boom in our economy, another monolithic business type? And how quickly can or should it take?
Should it be a quick fix?
Or a more gradual build-up?
 

michael1965

Active member
Joined
Oct 4, 2005
Messages
143
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

rockyracoon said:
An economy is made up of much more than sentiment. I agree that sentiment has played a large part in economic growth in Anglo-US style economies in the last decade but at the expense of consumers taking on ever more debt in order to pay for their optomistic assesments. This has largely been accomplished through pumping up money supply while underreporting inflation. (China has helped dramatically by flooding the world with cheap good but their inflation rates are way above our own. A new source of cheap labour produced goods has to found quickly for the Anlgo-US model to keep working.)

As far as I'm concerned, if MM's happy, "don't worry" prediction comes true, it will be on the back of an expensive cost based economy and on further personal debt accumulation. One of the things that is keeping Ireland running somewhat smoothly, imo, is the shear amount of money people made during the last decade. The vast majority of this new found money is not from growth promoted industry but from people sitting on their backsides while their house/asset balloned through no effort of their own. There are many cases of people sitting on money through the sale of homes and land who are just spending a percentage while showing little capital growth adjusted for inflation or, worse, showing losses from riskier investments like equities.

Good times may be around the corner for the wealthy and for the middle classes according to MM, but the middle classes better watch their own backsides because next time its their turn to feel the downturn.

Young, savvy wage earners who haven't got themselves into the debt spiral are making the correct decision to emmigrate.
Of course, there is more to an economy than sentiment, but I'm talking about quiet optimism, not the "irrational exuberance" that drive the bubble. If people aren't optimistic, then they won't invest, or take any risks. What we need now, is a short sharp correction in house prices, not a ten year long, dismal steady decline, like what happened in Japan - or stagnation like happened in Germany (both presumably the anti-thesis of the Anglo-US economic model).

If all goes well, young (or old) savvy wage earners, who haven't gotten into a debt spiral, will be in a very good position. Not that emigration isn't a good idea. I think everyone should spend a few years at least in another country.

You have to ask yourself though, if the current cloud of doom and gloom, is every bit as irrational as the exuberance of the previous couple of years.
 

wysiwyg

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 29, 2008
Messages
366
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

Just more bullcrap out of Martin, who has been without exception, the worst Minister in the past ten years.. and that's some feat considering the opposition... every department that he's been in finished up worse for his time there, and he never once took responsibility for anything

He's simply starting the FF local election campaign by trying to convince the public that they needn't worry, FF will have everything under control the year after the elections, so keep voting in FF councillors and they'll be best placed to look after you when all this blows over...

Bullcrap
 

rockyracoon

Active member
Joined
May 17, 2007
Messages
181
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

The current round of doom and gloom, as it is called, is caused by real underlying problems in the structure of our economy, and not solely due to the exuberance of an asset bubble. The bubble is a symptom of the underlying malaise. The reaction is not out of proportion. People need to wake up to the reality of money supply and indebtedness. MM's announcements is just more of the same sentiment as that which helped inflame the home/asset bubble in the first place.

Given govt pronouncements so far, they just seem content to let things sort themselves out. It seems that reliance on the Anglo-US model is now the embedded govt policy. They may throw some sticking plasters over the appearing cracks but they seem devoid of political will to change course. At the very least, they should adopt a German model based on EU finance and economic regimes or come up with an alternative. The adjustment will be financially wrenching for alot of people but would set us up better for the future. Imo, I don't see it happening.

As for emmigration. The younger, savvy emmigrant isn't going to foreign climes to broaden their multi-cultural credentials. Those emmigrating to Australia and other locations are doing so on sound financial/economic reasoning. It doesn't take an Einstein to realise that owning a home in Ireland is prohibitively expensive. Some properties have been lying empty for nearly two years and the asking price has not come down. The potential wages for a great number of school leavers cannot match the costs of living in our society anymore given our high cost base. They want opportunities they can achieve without facing a lifelong debt burden they may never be able to shake off in Ireland.

The phrase "it's time to wake up and smell the coffee" seems appropriate given our long term economic situation. However, some people want us to believe that paying €5+ for a small latte is still the sought after height of our economic achievements.
 

Pauli

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 22, 2006
Messages
1,181
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

myksav said:
Pauli said:
HanleyS said:
What exactly does Michael Martin believe this boom will be in exactly? Export of bouyant optimism?
High-octane plàmàs and premium-grade ********. Nobody does it better.
Off the topic but how the heck do you get those accents on plamas? Which should be plámás. :?
It's the keyboard. I don't have one that allows me to write the word correctly the way you can. It was my best effort. But back to the topic. It is a meaningless utterance with no economic foundation to it. We must sort out the balance of our own economy and get away from the property obsession before we can even think of emerging from this in any kind of healthy condition.
 

unaligned

Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2007
Messages
11
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

Former primary school teacher and Minister with special responsibility for commissioning reviews and steering committees predicts a boom in two years time. Happy days are here again.
 

michael1965

Active member
Joined
Oct 4, 2005
Messages
143
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

rockyracoon said:
The phrase "it's time to wake up and smell the coffee" seems appropriate given our long term economic situation. However, some people want us to believe that paying €5+ for a small latte is still the sought after height of our economic achievements.
I never pay more than €2.80. You should shop around. ;)
 

KingKane

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 19, 2003
Messages
2,335
Website
www.danielsullivan.ie
Twitter
kingkane
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

Amazing how he is 100% confident to base his predictions on the ESRI which didn't predict the current mess from 2 years ago. Anyway didn't Bertie tell us the Boom was getting Boomier, if this is boomier?
 

myksav

Well-known member
Joined
May 13, 2008
Messages
23,546
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

Pauli said:
myksav said:
Pauli said:
HanleyS said:
What exactly does Michael Martin believe this boom will be in exactly? Export of bouyant optimism?
High-octane plàmàs and premium-grade ********. Nobody does it better.
Off the topic but how the heck do you get those accents on plamas? Which should be plámás. :?
It's the keyboard. I don't have one that allows me to write the word correctly the way you can. It was my best effort. But back to the topic. It is a meaningless utterance with no economic foundation to it. We must sort out the balance of our own economy and get away from the property obsession before we can even think of emerging from this in any kind of healthy condition.
That would be my take on it as well.

On the offtopic. The fada is got using crtl+alt+letter. At least on keyboard set to English (Irish).
 

Oppenheimer

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 3, 2008
Messages
1,461
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

michael1965 said:
rockyracoon said:
The phrase "it's time to wake up and smell the coffee" seems appropriate given our long term economic situation. However, some people want us to believe that paying €5+ for a small latte is still the sought after height of our economic achievements.
I never pay more than €2.80. You should shop around. ;)
Yes, I agree, this is the equivalent of the Big Mac purchasing parity index (The Economist used to use) I use when travelling! €2.80 is about right in terms of the average you would pay here, London, NY, Boston and Chicago according to my observations. May be it will be a coffee boom - we can build loads more Starbuck's by picking up all that kit at pennies on the € from the 600 close downs planned in the US. :)
 

Oppenheimer

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 3, 2008
Messages
1,461
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

wysiwyg said:
Just more bullcrap out of Martin, who has been without exception, the worst Minister in the past ten years.. and that's some feat considering the opposition... every department that he's been in finished up worse for his time there, and he never once took responsibility for anything

He's simply starting the FF local election campaign by trying to convince the public that they needn't worry, FF will have everything under control the year after the elections, so keep voting in FF councillors and they'll be best placed to look after you when all this blows over...

Bullcrap
Even worse than Cullen? :shock2: Now there's a topic to start a new thread - a league table for the worst performing minister of the past decade + reason they are.
 

Oppenheimer

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 3, 2008
Messages
1,461
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

rockyracoon said:
The current round of doom and gloom, as it is called, is caused by real underlying problems in the structure of our economy, and not solely due to the exuberance of an asset bubble. The bubble is a symptom of the underlying malaise. The reaction is not out of proportion. People need to wake up to the reality of money supply and indebtedness. MM's announcements is just more of the same sentiment as that which helped inflame the home/asset bubble in the first place.

Given govt pronouncements so far, they just seem content to let things sort themselves out. It seems that reliance on the Anglo-US model is now the embedded govt policy. They may throw some sticking plasters over the appearing cracks but they seem devoid of political will to change course. At the very least, they should adopt a German model based on EU finance and economic regimes or come up with an alternative. The adjustment will be financially wrenching for alot of people but would set us up better for the future. Imo, I don't see it happening.

As for emmigration. The younger, savvy emmigrant isn't going to foreign climes to broaden their multi-cultural credentials. Those emmigrating to Australia and other locations are doing so on sound financial/economic reasoning. It doesn't take an Einstein to realise that owning a home in Ireland is prohibitively expensive. Some properties have been lying empty for nearly two years and the asking price has not come down. The potential wages for a great number of school leavers cannot match the costs of living in our society anymore given our high cost base. They want opportunities they can achieve without facing a lifelong debt burden they may never be able to shake off in Ireland.

The phrase "it's time to wake up and smell the coffee" seems appropriate given our long term economic situation. However, some people want us to believe that paying €5+ for a small latte is still the sought after height of our economic achievements.
I think the doom and gloom at an individual level could not get much gloomier (@ kingkane - great word "boomier"!) and people are worried about their own personal indebtedness. I think that the recovery here may not only be slower because of our reliance on property but also on the cycle that the transfer to personal indebtedness brings, i.e., people in large debt cannot emigrate as they are shackled, if they lose their job they cannot emigrate so their only option is to sign on - placing a larger burden on the welfare system, and consequently the exchequer.

As for the pros and cons of the Anglo-US model, one pro is that, in general, it supports entrepreneurialism to a greater extent. In a time when we must look to ourselves for the solution of the problem, this will get us into recovery mode in a more sustainable way - bring back the "Guaranteed Irish" campaign (or something like it that we are allowed to have within the constraints of the EU!).
 

greengoose

Active member
Joined
Aug 31, 2007
Messages
116
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

myksav said:
Pauli said:
HanleyS said:
What exactly does Michael Martin believe this boom will be in exactly? Export of bouyant optimism?
High-octane plàmàs and premium-grade ********. Nobody does it better.
Off the topic but how the heck do you get those accents on plamas? Which should be plámás. :?

It's French plâmâs. Much prettier. :mrgreen:

Martin has to say something. Finian already wrote to the Times on how hard TDs work during the three months recess so I suppose Martin has to do something to justify his dossing...
 

Paul.M

Member
Joined
Mar 16, 2007
Messages
12
Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

Typical Mick Martin spoof.
A few months before the general election he announces 2000 Amgen jobs and poured scorn on anybody who questioned him.
He called those that warned of the dangers of the government sponsored pyramid scheme (property speculation) “doomsayers”
He objects to the vital hospital beds and 1200 jobs in the CUH in Cork on traffic grounds.
He announces that Haulibowline island will be a mixed use park that will be the envy of Europe!
He now tells us that the boom will return AFTER the Local and European elections next year.

Where was he hiding when the park that was to be the envy of Europe was exposed as one of the most toxic dumps in the Country?

I never voted Green Party in the past but I am relived and reassured by having John Gormley and Dan Boyle staying at the controls of Government when the rats that caused the problems in the first place ran for cover.
 
Top