"Magical Thinking" for technology solutions to Brexit trade across the Irish border with the EU?

Patslatt1

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"Magical Thinking" for technology solutions to Brexit trade across the Irish border with the EU?

MAGICAL THINKING?

A recent Times of London Irish edition "Border Guard" editorial says that technology solutions advocated by hardline Brexiteers for the Irish border do not exist and are derisory "magical thinking" in the EU's phrase.

While the technology does not exist, many of its aspects are being developed, for instance in the open platform for trade shipments developed by global shipper Maersk and IBM. The main difficulties are 1.tracking and costing value added of products with components from more than one country 2.preventing cheating by shippers shipping across a frictionless Irish border 3.preventing smuggling 4. dealing with complications arising from Northern Ireland's dual status as having the equivalent of EU membership at the same time as full economic integration with the UK.

Looking at these points from the viewpoint of a hard Brexit:
Point 1, tracking value added already occurs in exisitng EU trade but in Brexit the scale of such tracking would increase dramatically. A component part shipped from mainland Britain to NI for export to the EU would have to be costed including its transportation cost. Where different components are manufactured and shipped together, problems would arise as to the allocation of transport and manufacturing overhead costs to the different components.
Point 2,auditing of shippers' records could minimise cheating. In accountancy audits of company accounts, a sampling of about 3% is sufficient for statistical reliability. In the case of tariffs, the percentage of audits might need to be higher.
Point 3,drones and hidden cameras should provide a relatively cheap way to monitor unusual traffic on byroads. Given potentially huge smuggling profits, smuggling gangs could become a serious national security threat like the Columbian cocaine cartels. That might necessitate considerable stopping and checking of traffic but to avoid the appearance of a restored border, the checks could be done inland by mobile units on both sides of the border.
Point 4, many mainland Britain companies might try to escape EU tariffs in hard Brexit by colluding with NI companies and similarly, many ROI companies might try to escape UK tariffs imposed on goods exported to mainland Britain. The solution is to audit shippers' accounts.

Most NI people would welcome the relatively frictionless border, if not perfectly frictionless,for its potential to transform the NI economy. Keeping EU tariff free access would be a huge competitive advantage for NI if Brexit UK leaves the customs union or the single market-rather like a special economic zone for setting up mainland UK manufacturing. In addition, the huge investment in software and surveillance systems for monitoring traded goods across the borders of NI with ROI and the UK would have to be financed by the UK government under its commitment to a frictionless border.

In conclusion, it would be interesting to have estimates of the cost of the software and audits needed to make MAGICAL THINKING practicable.
 
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Hogsback

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All irrelevant.
Even with all this in place a certain percentage of material requires physical inspection.

Sanitary and phytosanitary checks in particular are time consuming, and expensive (must be carried out by a vet in the case of animals).

So delays and physical checks are unavoidable outside of the single market.

Hence the magical thinking.
 

yosef shompeter

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All irrelevant.
Even with all this in place a certain percentage of material requires physical inspection.

Sanitary and phytosanitary checks in particular are time consuming, and expensive (must be carried out by a vet in the case of animals).

So delays and physical checks are unavoidable outside of the single market.

Hence the magical thinking.
Practically speaking that means you have to have controls right along the border. Having one place for checks ain't going to fly. Otherwise the punter would choose the crosspoint that has no checking.
But in practical terms you would need a fence and barbed wire and manpower with night vision cameras and such like... drones surveillance satellites right along the border.

Somehow I think the Irish border is building up to be one big gambit in a chessgame. It will come down to Trade access vs Irish border in one big eyeball-to-eyeball contest. I hope the Jarmins don't blink.
The other big item, rights of expats, well they tend to cancel one another out: " YOu screw our people and we screw yours"

I wonder how the drug cartels are viewing the coming Brexit talks out there in Medellin.
 

luggage

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Patslatt1

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All irrelevant.
Even with all this in place a certain percentage of material requires physical inspection.

Sanitary and phytosanitary checks in particular are time consuming, and expensive (must be carried out by a vet in the case of animals).

So delays and physical checks are unavoidable outside of the single market.

Hence the magical thinking.
A tractor trailer truck or a combination of several trucks could carry a lot of mobile equipment for those physical checks.
 

Patslatt1

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Practically speaking that means you have to have controls right along the border. Having one place for checks ain't going to fly. Otherwise the punter would choose the crosspoint that has no checking.
But in practical terms you would need a fence and barbed wire and manpower with night vision cameras and such like... drones surveillance satellites right along the border.

Somehow I think the Irish border is building up to be one big gambit in a chessgame. It will come down to Trade access vs Irish border in one big eyeball-to-eyeball contest. I hope the Jarmins don't blink.
The other big item, rights of expats, well they tend to cancel one another out: " YOu screw our people and we screw yours"

I wonder how the drug cartels are viewing the coming Brexit talks out there in Medellin.
The controls on imports can be mobile,situated inland at various distances fom the border. Traded goods needing laboratory style physical checks could be directed to certain roads where the mobile unit is based on a given day. If those goods were shipped on different routes to evade checks, they could be confiscated.
 

Patslatt1

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There is no way that the British Civil Service can run a project to implement as yet unknown technology. Below are some of the projects they have worked on, and cost millions. It is nonsense.

£285 million on a Airport that you cannot land a plane at
St Helena Airport – Why Do Projects Fail?

£1 Billion in Edinburgh
Tram trouble – Why Do Projects Fail?

Immigration Control £224 million
British Home Office – Why Do Projects Fail?
How much did the Troubles cost in Northern Ireland, with the need for vast antiterrorism security operations throughout the UK?

The cost of software projects for Magical Thinking would be in billions but worth the price for a peaceful and prosperous Northern Ireland. They could also serve as a laboratory for the computerisation of global trade.
 
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Hogsback

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A tractor trailer truck or a combination of several trucks could carry a lot of mobile equipment for those physical checks.
Sure could.
But the requirement is a frictionless border - any physical checks negate that.
Hence the magical thinking.
 

jmcc

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So PatSlatt is posting the same thread over and over again?
 

Patslatt1

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Sure could.
But the requirement is a frictionless border - any physical checks negate that.
Hence the magical thinking.
As long as the physical checks are done inland away from the border and done on a statistical sampling basis, they will not unduly upset Irish nationalists and hence be practicable. Sampling would be enhanced when based on technologies for tracking goods and traffic on the border.
 

Patslatt1

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So PatSlatt is posting the same thread over and over again?
Variations on a theme seem to confuse you. Instead of condescencion,You could offer technical criticism based on your computer software experience.
 

Patslatt1

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So PatSlatt is posting the same thread over and over again?
Variations on a theme seem to confuse you. Instead of condescension,You could offer technical criticism based on your computer software experience.
 

Roll_On

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The border is 500km long with 500 road crossings, not counting unofficial crossings over fields etc. Many of these crossings are in locations unserved by any internet connectivity and many more are nowhere near a point at which they could connect to the electricity grid. The smart border is Tory w*nk fantasy. The UK is now wanting to stay in the customs union(i.e. brexit is cancelled) until a technical solution can be found for the Irish border (i.e. NI votes to leave the UK).
 

Patslatt1

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The border is 500km long with 500 road crossings, not counting unofficial crossings over fields etc. Many of these crossings are in locations unserved by any internet connectivity and many more are nowhere near a point at which they could connect to the electricity grid. The smart border is Tory w*nk fantasy. The UK is now wanting to stay in the customs union(i.e. brexit is cancelled) until a technical solution can be found for the Irish border (i.e. NI votes to leave the UK).
Internet connections can be put in place and those remote border areas deserve the service. Connections to the electricity grid are unnecessary for battery powered surveillance cameras which can have long life, strong batteries.
 

Patslatt1

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Oh yeah - might as well put one of these on the side of that truck :lol:

Some dissident republicans would target mobile trucks.

However, most NI people would welcome the relatively frictionless border, if not perfectly frictionless,for its potential to transform the NI economy. Keeping EU tariff free access would be a huge competitive advantage for NI if Brexit UK leaves the customs union or the single market-rather like a special economic zone for setting up mainland UK manufacturing. In addition, the huge investment in software and surveillance systems for monitoring traded goods across the borders of NI with ROI and the UK would have to be financed by the UK government under its commitment to a frictionless border.
 


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