"Magical Thinking" for technology solutions to Brexit trade across the Irish border with the EU?

Patslatt1

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So, in essence, this poster's argument is spend squillions to re-invent the situation we have already?

Yeah. R-i-g-h-t.
There is a good chance hard Brexit will be ditched in favour of an EEA/EFTA solution like the situation of Norway. Tory Remainer MPs would join with Labour to vote against a hard Brexit, such as major breaks with the customs union or single market.
 
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Patslatt1

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What is the purpose of the border? Is it economic? Obviously not therefore the discussions around it are in reference to what its actual purpose is and why it was put there, which has nothing to do with 'trade tariffs on car widgets'. What a preposterous and infantile form of narrative dealing with a political fact which has its origin in colonialism and geostrategic interests.

Tell me, what is more important, that farmers can send their cattle and milk across the border with the least hassle or that NATO can assure its supply lines into Britain and N Europe? Especially at this time of escalation of military tensions with Russia.

What is more important, that businesses in the north or south can send products across the border or that Britain can assure itself it won't be surrounded by an increasingly powerful EU in the coming decades?

The Irish leadership, allegedly our 'representatives', have been conducting negotiations in secret and have given full plentipotentiary powers over this issue to a foreigner based in Brussels while telling the population that discussions are all around trade.

The Irish 'government' have not mentioned one single syllable to their people about the primary and determining issues of major importance around this border.
The partition of Ireland allowed the million militant NI protestants to keep out of the narrow minded Catholic secessionist Ireland. James Joyce wrote that he couldn't be interested in Irish nationalism as long as the Catholic Church occupied the citadel of the soul.
 

Malcolm Redfellow

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Just when one thought it was stupidity thrice stupefied:
Brexit: Technology-based customs system 'could cost £20bn'

The post-Brexit customs system favoured by Boris Johnson and other leading Brexiteers could cost businesses up to £20bn a year, officials have suggested.

The chief executive of HM Revenue and Customs told MPs firms would have to pay £32.50 for each customs declaration under the so-called "max fac" solution.

John Thompson said any new system could take up to five years to fully work.

No 10 said the £20bn figure was "speculation" but "issues" remained with both options being considered.

The UK is leaving the EU in March 2019, which is currently expected to be followed by a 21 month transition phase before the longer term post-Brexit system kicks in.
By the way, I trust all wannabe political pundits have/are reading Tim Shipman's Fall Out (now in paperback and discounted by Waterstones). Bear in mind, Shipman is a vastly-experienced journalist, political editor of the highly-partial Sunday Times, definitely 'on-the-right', but clearly severely disgruntled by the Tories currently not-quite-in-charge of the Westminster Asylum.
 

raetsel

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It would be similar to the employment of locals in the Tyrone gold mine where locals were opposed to mining on environmental grounds.
I'm afraid you don't know a lot about us in the north if you think that.
It would be a lot, lot worse than that - it would be seen as a total betrayal of their neighbours, because:
1. Almost all border crossings are in virtually exclusively or predominantly strongly nationalist areas.
2. They'd be working for the British government implementing a very unpopular policy that nationalists in particular are strongly opposed to.
3. They'd be seen as authority figures and their interaction with the public would be perceived as harrassment.
 

raetsel

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A few prominent border smugglers were busted. Small time smuggling doesn't call for strong responses but Brexit smuggling would do so because of the potentially huge economic impact.
Again you're poorly informed. Prior to 1993, smuggling was a multi-million pound industry in the south Down/south Armagh area. I could name you a dozen men off the top of my head who became very, very wealthy as a result. I know one who ended up being murdered as a result of his activities, because so much was at stake.
 

Strawberry

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The EU is determined that the UK will not have a "cake and eat it" Brexit, so that rules out a no tariffs Brexit except for the EEA/EFTA solution which governs Norway and Switzerland. NI will still be integrated with the UK market even as it keeps full EU access with RoI.
Nonsense. A Canada type trade deal is perfectly possible for the UK and that would greatly reduce or eliminate tariffs on most goods.
 

Patslatt1

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I'm afraid you don't know a lot about us in the north if you think that.
It would be a lot, lot worse than that - it would be seen as a total betrayal of their neighbours, because:
1. Almost all border crossings are in virtually exclusively or predominantly strongly nationalist areas.
2. They'd be working for the British government implementing a very unpopular policy that nationalists in particular are strongly opposed to.
3. They'd be seen as authority figures and their interaction with the public would be perceived as harrassment.
The statistical sampling physical customs checks would be done miles inland and would not look like a fixed customs border. Hidden cameras could be placed quietly on trees and hedges on public roads without attracting attention. Smugglers crossing the border over fields avoiding byroads could be spotted by drones or by cameras when they reach a road. Drone shooting could replace pheasant shooting as a sport!
 

Patslatt1

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Nonsense. A Canada type trade deal is perfectly possible for the UK and that would greatly reduce or eliminate tariffs on most goods.
Tariffs are not the main impediment to trade. Managing customs red tape costs about 15% of transport and warehousing costs which many small manufacturers couldn't afford. Staying in the single market is critical for the UK.
 

Patslatt1

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Again you're poorly informed. Prior to 1993, smuggling was a multi-million pound industry in the south Down/south Armagh area. I could name you a dozen men off the top of my head who became very, very wealthy as a result. I know one who ended up being murdered as a result of his activities, because so much was at stake.
A dozen rich smugglers is a small figure compared to the total number of very rich in NI.
 

raetsel

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A dozen rich smugglers is a small figure compared to the total number of very rich in NI.
It's a lot of defrauded revenue though.
 

raetsel

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The statistical sampling physical customs checks would be done miles inland and would not look like a fixed customs border. Hidden cameras could be placed quietly on trees and hedges on public roads without attracting attention. Smugglers crossing the border over fields avoiding byroads could be spotted by drones or by cameras when they reach a road. Drone shooting could replace pheasant shooting as a sport!
But that has none of that has anything to do with your original point about jobs for locals which is what I responded to. Anyway a hard Brexit will be bad for Ireland both north and south, and it will be even worse for the border areas, and a disaster for agriculture, north and south. Let's hope it never reaches that.
 

Patslatt1

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But that has none of that has anything to do with your original point about jobs for locals which is what I responded to. Anyway a hard Brexit will be bad for Ireland both north and south, and it will be even worse for the border areas, and a disaster for agriculture, north and south. Let's hope it never reaches that.
Northern Ireland is guaranteed full access to the EU regardless of the type of Brexit. A hard Brexit lacks support from a big minority of Tory Remainer MPs who would revolt and join with Labour MPs in a parliamentary vote against it. Brexit will be largely symbolic, like membership in EEA and EFTA which Norway has.
 

firefly123

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Northern Ireland is guaranteed full access to the EU regardless of the type of Brexit. A hard Brexit lacks support from a big minority of Tory Remainer MPs who would revolt and join with Labour MPs in a parliamentary vote against it. Brexit will be largely symbolic, like membership in EEA and EFTA which Norway has.
Eh ? No it isn't. The EU have stated that if the north unites with the south it doesn't require an EU application.
If the Brits decide to go hard brexit and include the north then it won't have access to the EU. That's the whole problem as ALL people born on this island are entitled to EU citizenship but will not be allowed access due to the British.
 

raetsel

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Northern Ireland is guaranteed full access to the EU regardless of the type of Brexit. A hard Brexit lacks support from a big minority of Tory Remainer MPs who would revolt and join with Labour MPs in a parliamentary vote against it. Brexit will be largely symbolic, like membership in EEA and EFTA which Norway has.
I'm hopeful that that is how it will turn out. I'm not entirely confident that it will. Something has to give. My own opinion is that there are now three distinct factions in the House of Commons- those represented by Rees Mogg who want a hard Brexit, those led by May who want something rather less but enough to satisfy the hard Brexiters, and thirdly, former Remainers who'd now accept a Norway type deal.
I don't believe any of them can command a majority. Who knows what will happen in the end?
 

Patslatt1

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Eh ? No it isn't. The EU have stated that if the north unites with the south it doesn't require an EU application.
If the Brits decide to go hard brexit and include the north then it won't have access to the EU. That's the whole problem as ALL people born on this island are entitled to EU citizenship but will not be allowed access due to the British.
PM May has already agreed that the Good Friday Agreement means no hard border and the EU is also signed up to it,a victory of Irish diplomacy.
 

Patslatt1

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I'm hopeful that that is how it will turn out. I'm not entirely confident that it will. Something has to give. My own opinion is that there are now three distinct factions in the House of Commons- those represented by Rees Mogg who want a hard Brexit, those led by May who want something rather less but enough to satisfy the hard Brexiters, and thirdly, former Remainers who'd now accept a Norway type deal.
I don't believe any of them can command a majority. Who knows what will happen in the end?[/QUOTE

Minority Tory Remainer MPs if joined by the largely Remain Labour MPs would command a majority in the Commons.

In a decade when a sizable percentage of the Rule Brittania over 70 voters are deceased, the Remain vote would win a referendum. That's bound to influence MPs.
 
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Strawberry

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Tariffs are not the main impediment to trade. Managing customs red tape costs about 15% of transport and warehousing costs which many small manufacturers couldn't afford. Staying in the single market is critical for the UK.
I know that, but your post, that I was responding to, was about tariffs.
 

boldfenianman

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All irrelevant.
Even with all this in place a certain percentage of material requires physical inspection.

Sanitary and phytosanitary checks in particular are time consuming, and expensive (must be carried out by a vet in the case of animals).

So delays and physical checks are unavoidable outside of the single market.

Hence the magical thinking.
What does phytosanitary mean?
 

boldfenianman

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Sure could.
But the requirement is a frictionless border - any physical checks negate that.
Hence the magical thinking.
If a cow wanders from one side of a field to another , then back is that 2 checks or one. And then wanders again. Is that 3? This is all insane. UI please.
 


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