Marc Coleman writing for BBC : Ireland's robust economy knocked off course

theObserver@hotmail.com

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Images of people riding on donkeys or begging, together with one-sided dramatised narratives about young people leaving the country (our population has continued to grow well into the recession) may boost viewership, listenership and readership figures.

But they convey an image of Ireland totally at odds with the reality of a country that last week was voted by the UN human development index as the world's 5th most desirable place to live.

[...]

While government and media have played a role, Ireland's current crisis is fundamentally made up of two interacting components - a fiscal crisis and a banking crisis.

We were three weeks away from solving the former by ourselves when doubts about the latter - the proverbial "Father Niall Horan" in this story - hit us for six.

[..]

A year ago, such an event would not have brought Ireland closer to the UK: then-Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy's reference to Ireland as part of an "arc of insolvency" had created too much bad blood.

David Cameron's government is a different affair.

Ireland will never leave the euro (at least as long as it exists).

But this week's events could result in Ireland taking a more cautious view of Europe, and a more positive view of Britain, in the future.
BBC News - Viewpoint: Ireland's robust economy knocked off course

The comments under the article are interesting too.
 


Clanrickard

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ballot stuffer

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How Marc "The best is yet to come" Coleman is still an authoritative voice on economics is beyond me.
 

Tomas Mor

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Forget about Coleman, this man wrote a book "The best is yet to come" in 2007, even as the storm clouds were gathering.
 

Right is right

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To think even back in 2004/5 I was arguing with Marc that the economy and the housing market were going pearshaped even then
 

Tigris Celtica

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"Images of people riding on donkeys or begging, together with one-sided dramatised narratives about young people leaving the country (our population has continued to grow well into the recession) may boost viewership, listenership and readership figures.

But they convey an image of Ireland totally at odds with the reality of a country that last week was voted by the UN human development index as the world's 5th most desirable place to live
. " ?

What a complete crock of **** ! 5th most desirable place to live my a**e ! - 'Nuff said !..............
 

Sean-Bhean bhoct

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Favourite comment :-

"Another Irishman who doesn't see it coming. What a (Greek) tragedy. "
In fairness, the comments are half-and-half.

The comment you highlighted is actually ironic given that it is this sentiment which prompted Coleman to write the article in the first place.

Personally, I'd prefer to judge the situation from the people who actually live in the country, rather than from some englishman who bases his view on the headline grabbing media.

I agree with Colemans arguments in relation to the over-the-top pictures appearing in the wordwide media. The two itinerants on the horse and trap was particularly incomprehensible.

It reminded me of the front page of the Economist in the 1980's of the beggar on the haypenny bridge and a prosperous gentleman walking by.

More of the same this time around - and equally shallow commentary. Remember it was a dead cert back then two that Ireland would need IMF assistance.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Another dork.
 

Congalltee

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I posted this elsewhere.
The Good:
- 1.85m in employment (including much higher women participation).
- Employment levels have stopped dropping (emigration is keeping unemployment rate stable at 13%).
- The Current Revenue figures are in line with expectation ie they have stablised.
- A very strong and productive export sector with the Euro falling in value.
- the ECB interest rates are currently low.

The known knowns:
- we must take (at least) €15bn out of the economy through cuts/tax hikes, with a third to a half of that this year.
- the bondmarket thinks we are junk status (no longer releavant)
- the British will take £83bn out their economy, with £4 billion out of their economy will lead to a double-dip recession.
- interest rates from ECB must rise this year as German economy grows.
- the Croke Park deal has tied the hands of the government to cut public sector spending further (the IMF/EFSF will tear that up)
- private debt is massive and limits the capacity of people to take further hits.

The known unknowns:
- the price the bond market will charge in January and thereafter (not relavant now)
- the final cost of the bank bailouts (that's what the IMF/EFSF are to find out)
- the effect NAMA sale of property will have on the market.
- the effect that a change of governement will have.


The spin from Cowen/Lenihan is less than gratifying, but the distinction between "going cap in hand out of desparation to the IMF/EU for a bailout" and "being persuaded by European partners to accept funding support because of the banking solvency issues" appears to be important to the dept of finance so some reason eg in terms of international sentiment.

What more will the IMF/EFSF do that we are not already doing?
- Rip up Croke Park Agreement and cut salaries and numbers (no harm).
- cut unemployment benefit (unfortunate for those on it and those retail outlets who benefit from it but it is unsustainable).
- break up professional cartels (good thing surely).
- sell off State assets (not so good given the price they may get and the fact that some of them are strategic eg ESB).
- cause some bank bondholders to take a hit (Roman Abramowich et al).

This is not a great day for Ireland, but it could be a lot worse.
 

politicaldonations

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Coleman seems completely wedded to the year 2005. He mentions very regularly when saying when things went wrong in this country. The reasons seems to be he moved back to Ireland then and bought an expensive house then! He cant accept he made a big mistake and everything he does now is to justify that descision.
 

greenwithirony

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How many times can someone be proved utterly wrong before they slink away to be at one with their own shame?
Quote of the day!

Congalltee, very interesting post, thanks for that though I'm not sure I share your (relative) optimism
 

nildesp

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Coleman seems completely wedded to the year 2005. He mentions very regularly when saying when things went wrong in this country. The reasons seems to be he moved back to Ireland then and bought an expensive house then! He cant accept he made a big mistake and everything he does now is to justify that descision.
Doesn't that apply to practically the entire media establishment that cheer-led the boom? Coleman was just one of a plethora of market-worshipping so-called 'expert' or 'specialist' voices in the media who fed us the garbage that has got us where we are today.

Most of these guys cut their teeth rewriting or, more likely, recycling banks, stockbroker, IBEC etc. press releases. That model hasn't changed: just tune in to RTÉ any time of any day.
 


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