Marriage Equality Polling

livingstone

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So, as we move into the home stretch, polls will presumably become more frequent, so useful to have a thread tracking polls and discussing them. Ideally not to descend into a discussion of the substantive issue.

RedC's poll today shows 78% Yes and 22% No when undecided's are excluded.

In January, the Yes vote was on 77%. So a minute increase.


The really remarkable thing is that the undecided figure is tiny - I've never seen a referendum with such low undecided figures. 3% would be unusual even for a poll immediately before polling date. It suggests that this is an issue that people feel they know enough about, have a visceral reaction to and will vote that way - which suggests that the impact of the campaign might be minimal.

The key thing with polling is that it's the Yes side's to lose - they're not going to add to their support in the mid-70s and most people would expect the yes side to fall somewhat. It's interesting that with fairly extensive media coverage and debates over the past month, they have actually edged ever so slightly ahead.
 


ruserious

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If Yes want to win, they should not campaign. Let the Bishops and Homophobes do their side damage.
 

Bill

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So, as we move into the home stretch, polls will presumably become more frequent, so useful to have a thread tracking polls and discussing them. Ideally not to descend into a discussion of the substantive issue.

RedC's poll today shows 78% Yes and 22% No when undecided's are excluded.

In January, the Yes vote was on 77%. So a minute increase.


The really remarkable thing is that the undecided figure is tiny - I've never seen a referendum with such low undecided figures. 3% would be unusual even for a poll immediately before polling date. It suggests that this is an issue that people feel they know enough about, have a visceral reaction to and will vote that way - which suggests that the impact of the campaign might be minimal.

The key thing with polling is that it's the Yes side's to lose - they're not going to add to their support in the mid-70s and most people would expect the yes side to fall somewhat. It's interesting that with fairly extensive media coverage and debates over the past month, they have actually edged ever so slightly ahead.
there was a demonstration by the don't knows the other day
Marriage Referendum ‘Maybe Side’ Stage March In Dublin | Waterford Whispers News
:)
 

Goa Tse

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Still though, there's no room for complacency if we want this to pass; we still need to convince as many as possible that it's the right thing to do. If the Yes side fall asleep at the wheel, this could end badly.
 
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sic transit

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So, as we move into the home stretch, polls will presumably become more frequent, so useful to have a thread tracking polls and discussing them. Ideally not to descend into a discussion of the substantive issue.

RedC's poll today shows 78% Yes and 22% No when undecided's are excluded.

In January, the Yes vote was on 77%. So a minute increase.


The really remarkable thing is that the undecided figure is tiny - I've never seen a referendum with such low undecided figures. 3% would be unusual even for a poll immediately before polling date. It suggests that this is an issue that people feel they know enough about, have a visceral reaction to and will vote that way - which suggests that the impact of the campaign might be minimal.

The key thing with polling is that it's the Yes side's to lose - they're not going to add to their support in the mid-70s and most people would expect the yes side to fall somewhat. It's interesting that with fairly extensive media coverage and debates over the past month, they have actually edged ever so slightly ahead.
There's no campaign to speak of at present. There is support in principle but it really depends on what messages stick. The Abbeylara referendum took a 31% swing when it was rejected. Once posters begin to appear and we get wall to wall media coverage the numbers may well change. Turnout is absolutely crucial. Anything over 40% should see it passed, anything less could make it very very tight.
 

livingstone

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There's no campaign to speak of at present. There is support in principle but it really depends on what messages stick. The Abbeylara referendum took a 31% swing when it was rejected. Once posters begin to appear and we get wall to wall media coverage the numbers may well change. Turnout is absolutely crucial. Anything over 40% should see it passed, anything less could make it very very tight.
I agree turnout will matter.

I don't agree that there's much scope for actual headline support to fall at this stage. People are pretty exposed to the issue and the arguments of both sides by now - and I think that's reflected in the low undecided rate. Of course some fall might occur. But I'd be surprised if we see Yes fall below c65% at any stage over the coming months.
 

GDPR

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i'd be concerned that the opinion polling will leave the marriage equality side too confident and consolidated that it will pass, which could lead to its failure.
 

storybud1

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If it p1sses rain RTE will have newsflashes every 5 mins to get the Yes vote out,, (just in case)
 

He3

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I am finding the RTE news item on the poll hard to decipher -


'When Don't Knows ( at 3% are excluded ) support for the Same Sex Marriage referendum is 78% Yes and 22% No - this remains in keeping with a trend of three in four saying they will vote Yes.

However, there is an apparent trend in those who were previously Undecided now moving toward the No camp.

The result of this shift is a small decline in support for the Yes camp.

Once Undecided voters are excluded, support for Yes moves from 80% to 78%.

Of those supporting the referendum, approximately one in ten still have some reservation either about gay adoption, or just gay relationships in general.

But, these reservations appear to have decreased somewhat over the past two months, and mean that the "secure" Yes vote - those who say they have no reservations about gay couples adopting or about gay relationships - is currently at 60%.'

Poll suggests increase in support for FG, Labour - RTÉ News

Does anyone have the actual poll details?
 

DJP

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If it is passed I kind of hope for the pro-gay marriage side that there is a big turnout and that numerically a huge number of people vote for it because if turnout is low irrespective of whether there is a big no vote then the majority of adults will have not voten for gay marriage. I say kind of because I am not going to vote although I support gay marriage.
 
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Mercurial

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I think the yes campaign needs to focus on two issues in particular:

1. Making emotive appeals to the electorate rather than engaging too much with the claims of the no side - those on the fence won't be swayed by cold arguments, most those people are already on the Yes side.

2. Focus on those already on the Yes side but who may not bother turning up. If the yes side can translate their numbers into turnout they will win, but that's easier said than done.
 

Mercurial

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Also, it would be helpful to note the margin of error on these polls.
 

Skyrocket

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I'll stick with a prediction I made months ago of a 55-60% Yes vote.
 

bunkmoreland

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I think the yes campaign needs to focus on two issues in particular:

1. Making emotive appeals to the electorate rather than engaging too much with the claims of the no side - those on the fence won't be swayed by cold arguments, most those people are already on the Yes side.

2. Focus on those already on the Yes side but who may not bother turning up. If the yes side can translate their numbers into turnout they will win, but that's easier said than done.
Sure, loads of emotion and obscure the facts.
 


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