Martin: the old man of Irish politics

statsman

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One of the more interesting aspects of Gerry Adams' resignation was the bit where he talked about giving the new leader time to settle in before the next GE. This quite clearly signals that unless something extraordinary happens, SF will not let FF pull the plug for at least another year, probably not before the spring of 2019.

This being the case, the leader of FG in that campaign will be Leo, age 40 then.
The leader of SF will probably be Mary Lou McDonald, aged 50.
The leader of FF may well be Micheál Martin, age 59.

Now, under normal circumstances, 59 would be young enough for a political leader, but will the relative youth of his two main opponents, will FF be tempted to look to someone younger?
And is Éamon Ó Cuív (10 years older than Martin) totally yesterday's man with no prospect of ever being leader of FF?
 


statsman

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Is Martin going to be the only FF leader who will never be Taoiseach?
With any luck. They should have made a complete break with the Bertie/Cowen cabinets.
 

statsman

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No he will most likely be Taoiseach after the next election.
What's your reasoning there? Based n the polls since the last GE, there's no particular reason for that prediction that I can see.
 

hammer

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The question has got to be

Who will keep the recovery going ?

Will it be
FG
IMFF
or SF IRA

Leaders - How relevant is an ageing Mehole to the young voters who might very well decide the outcome next time around ?
 

ruserious

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Stephen Donnelly may emerge from his Trojan Horse and assume the leadership of FF.
 

devoutcapitalist

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What's your reasoning there? Based n the polls since the last GE, there's no particular reason for that prediction that I can see.
1) FF have a strong grassroots organisation in most constituencies outside Dublin.
2) Martin is an very good election campaigner.
3) FF underperform in opinion polls especially REDC polls, there is a shy FF vote.
4) Out of the main party leaders Martin is the best at debating.
5) If Mary Lou becomes SF leader she comes across as hectoring, self righteous and quite frankly annoying. That would turn off many floating voters.
 

ruserious

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Could the party stomach an opportunist blow-in as leader?
They certainly stomach an opportunist(Bertie, Haughey, Reynolds), and they've already accepted him as a blow-in; so not much of a stretch to see them accepting a combined opportunist blow-in.
 

statsman

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1) FF have a strong grassroots organisation in most constituencies outside Dublin.
2) Martin is an very good election campaigner.
3) FF underperform in opinion polls especially REDC polls, there is a shy FF vote.
4) Out of the main party leaders Martin is the best at debating.
5) If Mary Lou becomes SF leader she comes across as hectoring, self righteous and quite frankly annoying. That would turn off many floating voters.
1) So do FG. And increasingly, SF.
2) Leo and/or Mary Lou may well turn out to be better. We just don't know.
3) In this new era, we just don't know if that's still the case.
4) Again, we don't know if hes' better than the two people he will be debating against. We do know that he was better than Kenny and still lost the last GE.
5) SF's vote is almost all core; they'd turn out for a party lead by a dead parrot.
 

statsman

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They certainly stomach an opportunist(Bertie, Haughey, Reynolds), and they've already accepted him as a blow-in; so not much of a stretch to see them accepting a combined opportunist blow-in.
True.
 

Man or Mouse

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The question has got to be

Who will keep the recovery going ?

Will it be
FG
IMFF
or SF IRA

Leaders - How relevant is an ageing Mehole to the young voters who might very well decide the outcome next time around ?
The ABFF of course.

Winks at Oggy. petunia
 

Cruimh

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5) If Mary Lou becomes SF leader she comes across as hectoring, self righteous and quite frankly annoying. That would turn off many floating voters.
And has little credibility in NI, without any whiff of cordite to keep the pesky Nordie Shinners under control.

It would be great if Mary Lou did succeed. But something occurred to me - going on a post #6 on

http://www.politics.ie/forum/kerry/260481-sinn-fein-kerry-ferris-legacy-who-can-bring-party-forward.html#post11629048

Could Toiréasa Ferris have been kept out of the limelight to avoid any further embarrassments so that she can assume the Leadership? Just a passing thought.....
 


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