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Mary Lou McDonald future Taoiseach?


IrishWelshCelt

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So with recent polls showing only a gap of 3% between FF/FG/SF and ~20% of voters undecided the political future of this country is far from certain with no one party dominating, does it open the door to SF and Mary Lou as a future Taoiseach?

I recently tweeted @AskPaddyPower where you can ask for specific odds and they replied with odds of 8/1 (also had Pearse Doherty as finance minister before 2020 @ 20/1). Now given SF's rise in the polls from just under 10% in 2011 to 21% at the time of posting is there a distinct possibility this could happen?

I personally think so. Next time round a FF/FG coalition looks likely and a term as the largest opposition party could well see SF and Mary Lou (assuming Adams has left) as potential leaders in government in two terms time.
 


commonman

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Drop the word Future when it comes to with any thing to do with this country ,we dont have one.
 

Tommythesash

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So with recent polls showing only a gap of 3% between FF/FG/SF and ~20% of voters undecided the political future of this country is far from certain with no one party dominating, does it open the door to SF and Mary Lou as a future Taoiseach?

I recently tweeted @AskPaddyPower where you can ask for specific odds and they replied with odds of 8/1 (also had Pearse Doherty as finance minister before 2020 @ 20/1). Now given SF's rise in the polls from just under 10% in 2011 to 21% at the time of posting is there a distinct possibility this could happen?

I personally think so. Next time round a FF/FG coalition looks likely and a term as the largest opposition party could well see SF and Mary Lou (assuming Adams has left) as potential leaders in government in two terms time.

Interesting.
 

Sync

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1. FF/FG doesn't look likely. There's no quote from anyone involved to give the theory credence.

2. SF are currently significantly to the left of Labour. You'd be talking about a major shift of the electorate to the left (larger than it's realistic to expect) or a major shift to the centre by SF to make the idea of them winning a stand alone majority.

3. Their most likely route in is a minority partner with FF or (less likely) Labour. She won't get taoiseach out of that and minority partnerships tend to end poorly for the smaller party in Ireland.

4. From what I've seen she lacks leadership, policy knowledge and influence in her own party to make her a contender. Right now I'd put her significantly behind Doherty in the rankings.
 

IrishWelshCelt

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1. FF/FG doesn't look likely. There's no quote from anyone involved to give the theory credence.

2. SF are currently significantly to the left of Labour. You'd be talking about a major shift of the electorate to the left (larger than it's realistic to expect) or a major shift to the centre by SF to make the idea of them winning a stand alone majority.

3. Their most likely route in is a minority partner with FF or (less likely) Labour. She won't get taoiseach out of that and minority partnerships tend to end poorly for the smaller party in Ireland.

4. From what I've seen she lacks leadership, policy knowledge and influence in her own party to make her a contender. Right now I'd put her significantly behind Doherty in the rankings.
1. It looks more likely that FF/SF or FG/SF

2. Electorates can shift and if ever theres a chance of that happening its in this current economic mess.

3. Primarily why I think we'll end up with FF/FG as SF wont want to go the way of the greens, pds

4. She's a great performer in the Dáil and as current vice president of SF she's ahead of Doherty in the running.
 

TiredOfBeingTired

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MMLD, in some respects, reminds me of Maire Geoghan Quinn.
The last point could point to past and future problems.
What do Dublin voters know that the rest of us don't?

Pearse Doherty, Gerry Adams and Martin Ferris do not seem to be facing the same problems.
 

Happytolearn

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1. FF/FG doesn't look likely. There's no quote from anyone involved to give the theory credence.

2. SF are currently significantly to the left of Labour. You'd be talking about a major shift of the electorate to the left (larger than it's realistic to expect) or a major shift to the centre by SF to make the idea of them winning a stand alone majority.

3. Their most likely route in is a minority partner with FF or (less likely) Labour. She won't get taoiseach out of that and minority partnerships tend to end poorly for the smaller party in Ireland.

4. From what I've seen she lacks leadership, policy knowledge and influence in her own party to make her a contender. Right now I'd put her significantly behind Doherty in the rankings.
Regarding point 1- Would either party ever actually admit to being open to the possibility? I can imagine it happening but only after slithery private talks after the next election.
 

collina

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Mary Lou, Taoiseach?

I remember a chant at Anfield a few years back, "if the Nevilles play for England, so do I". Seems apt.
 

Sync

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1. It looks more likely that FF/SF or FG/SF
Well yes of course. Because every political party is still on record on not being willing to deal with SF. That doesn't mean it's "likely" though.

2. Electorates can shift and if ever theres a chance of that happening its in this current economic mess.
They can shift. They never have here though. It might change in the next election, I'd still bet heavily on FG and FF being considerably ahead of SF in terms of seats in the next election.

3. Primarily why I think we'll end up with FF/FG as SF wont want to go the way of the greens, pds
That doesn't make sense. SF aren't a factor because no one else will go in with them. FG/Lab/Inds or FF/Lab/Inds will all be comfortably able to hold government.

4. She's a great performer in the Dáil and as current vice president of SF she's ahead of Doherty in the running.
I'll bet dollars to donuts she doesn't get the top spot when Gerry goes.
 

IrishWelshCelt

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MMLD, in some respects, reminds me of Maire Geoghan Quinn.
The last point could point to past and future problems.
What do Dublin voters know that the rest of us don't?

Pearse Doherty, Gerry Adams and Martin Ferris do not seem to be facing the same problems.
Mary Lou was nearly unheard of pre 2011 though. She was an MEP but they get feck all coverage in the media! I'd expect her to comfortably take her seat next time round given he raised profile and SF's rise in support.
 

drummed

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Really? Of which country cause it sure won't be this one.
 

IrishWelshCelt

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Well yes of course. Because every political party is still on record on not being willing to deal with SF. That doesn't mean it's "likely" though.
It makes if more likely as like I said before SF will not want to go the way of the greens pds (and labour next time round). That'll leave FF/FG together and as much as they wont want to say it they're the most compatable parties in Irish politics.


They can shift. They never have here though. It might change in the next election, I'd still bet heavily on FG and FF being considerably ahead of SF in terms of seats in the next election.
We've never had 4 big parties though have we? It's always been FF/FG/Labour. Also Im sure both FF/FG will be 20 odd seats ahead of SF next time round but a term as the biggest party in opposition would see that slashed.


That doesn't make sense. SF aren't a factor because no one else will go in with them. FG/Lab/Inds or FF/Lab/Inds will all be comfortably able to hold government.
I'm not sure if either of those would have the numbers and even if they did they wouldnt last long if they're depending on independents.

I'll bet dollars to donuts she doesn't get the top spot when Gerry goes.
Why? As I said shes vice-president so the most likely candidate, Doherty may contest it but she's the obvious choice.
 

Analyzer

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So with recent polls showing only a gap of 3% between FF/FG/SF and ~20% of voters undecided the political future of this country is far from certain with no one party dominating, does it open the door to SF and Mary Lou as a future Taoiseach?

I recently tweeted @AskPaddyPower where you can ask for specific odds and they replied with odds of 8/1 (also had Pearse Doherty as finance minister before 2020 @ 20/1). Now given SF's rise in the polls from just under 10% in 2011 to 21% at the time of posting is there a distinct possibility this could happen?

I personally think so. Next time round a FF/FG coalition looks likely and a term as the largest opposition party could well see SF and Mary Lou (assuming Adams has left) as potential leaders in government in two terms time.
All talk, and no thought. Predictable enough.

She can argue incessantly. But I would not put her in charge.

If SF are looking for a Taoiseach, perhaps Peadar Toibin might be a relevant option.

Calm, clear, intelligent, and much better at listening tha MLD. Though he is still a bit young for any serious responsibility.
 

Sync

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Regarding point 1- Would either party ever actually admit to being open to the possibility? I can imagine it happening but only after slithery private talks after the next election.
We say that for every election. Then all the parties say they won't talk to SF. Then a govt is elected having not spoken to SF. Then afterwards everyone on all sides confirm they didn't talk to SF. I get the inherent disbelief over what parties say, but they've all been consistent on this for 20 years.
 

viper999

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Sf might be at 20% or so now but wait until the run up to an election, when all the media start a smear campaign to conspire against Sinn Fein getting into government they will end up with 12-15%. So as to ensure we continue with the axis of evil of ff/fg running the show
 

fuque

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1. It looks more likely that FF/SF or FG/SF

2. Electorates can shift and if ever theres a chance of that happening its in this current economic mess.

3. Primarily why I think we'll end up with FF/FG as SF wont want to go the way of the greens, pds

4. She's a great performer in the Dáil and as current vice president of SF she's ahead of Doherty in the running.
If SF ever got into bed with FF they would lose credibility instantly.
 

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