Mayo next GE

Fear Rua

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So Calleary, Chambers, Ring & Conway Walsh, according to PPower ?
 


seanof

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So Calleary, Chambers, Ring & Conway Walsh, according to PPower ?
That's what their odds are saying. Mulherin has now overtaken McHugh and is on 3/1. The others I mentioned are unchanged.

At this stage the odds will be indicating the amount of money being placed but the bookies' odds often don't predict the final outcome. It's interesting to keep an eye on them though.
 

Round tower

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That's what their odds are saying. Mulherin has now overtaken McHugh and is on 3/1. The others I mentioned are unchanged.

At this stage the odds will be indicating the amount of money being placed but the bookies' odds often don't predict the final outcome. It's interesting to keep an eye on them though.
I would not put much heed on them odds as it's probably SF people backing RCW on winning the final seat with their rise in the polls which is not a sure sign of her winning the seat.
 

seanof

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Mulherin moved to 2/1. Someone must have bet a fiver on her.
 

Itsalaugh

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I would not put much heed on them odds as it's probably SF people backing RCW on winning the final seat with their rise in the polls which is not a sure sign of her winning the seat.
First post I've read from you where you haven't categorically stated that SF will not have a TD in Mayo.
 

Round tower

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First post I've read from you where you haven't categorically stated that SF will not have a TD in Mayo.
If the national polss was reflected in May then she would have a chance but their has being no poll for Mayo, so anything is still possible. That a poll showed SF doing very well in Connacht/Ulster which would be natural with the border counties of Donegal, Cavan Monnaghan and Sligo, but SF had a very poor vote here in Mayo in the LE. Interesting one of the SF candidates in the LE in Mayo, Michael Reagan was in Rosscommon canvassing for Kerane.
 

neiphin

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Where have all the Leo posters gone?
drove from Ballina to Crossmolina to Newport and on to westport this morning, not a single Leo poster
 

Itsalaugh

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If the national polss was reflected in May then she would have a chance but their has being no poll for Mayo, so anything is still possible. That a poll showed SF doing very well in Connacht/Ulster which would be natural with the border counties of Donegal, Cavan Monnaghan and Sligo, but SF had a very poor vote here in Mayo in the LE. Interesting one of the SF candidates in the LE in Mayo, Michael Reagan was in Rosscommon canvassing for Kerane.
You don't reckon on the national poll figurrs its likely that Sen Rose Conway Walsh can take 3K in her home base about similiar votes in Gerry Murray's Swinford base and then capture at least 10% in the rest of Mayo giving her 11k first prefernces.

I know your no fan of SF, to say the least, but ostrich like analysis isn't required. And surely Mayo is not totally unaffected by currents sweeping the country. There's a family I met in Erris 18 years ago who had a Michael Ring photo on their wall, yet the Dad would sing Joe McDonnell and Take me Home to Mayo in reverence to those republican hunger strikers. If he hasnt switched already to Rose, he can't be too far off it.
 

paulp

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Where have all the Leo posters gone?
drove from Ballina to Crossmolina to Newport and on to westport this morning, not a single Leo poster
I would guess that a few FG candidates who now look in danger of losing their seats are regretting not backing Coveney
 

Round tower

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Where have all the Leo posters gone?
drove from Ballina to Crossmolina to Newport and on to westport this morning, not a single Leo poster
Was there posters for Leo, Micheal or Mary Lou, the only posters i have seen are posters of the candidates Dara, Michelle and Rose, no posters oh Micheal, Leo or Mary Lou
 

Round tower

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You don't reckon on the national poll figurrs its likely that Sen Rose Conway Walsh can take 3K in her home base about similiar votes in Gerry Murray's Swinford base and then capture at least 10% in the rest of Mayo giving her 11k first prefernces.

I know your no fan of SF, to say the least, but ostrich like analysis isn't required. And surely Mayo is not totally unaffected by currents sweeping the country. There's a family I met in Erris 18 years ago who had a Michael Ring photo on their wall, yet the Dad would sing Joe McDonnell and Take me Home to Mayo in reverence to those republican hunger strikers. If he hasnt switched already to Rose, he can't be too far off it.
It's a very big ask, in the 019 LE, SF got 4,633 in Mayo, G. Murray which was in the Swinford area got only 1896. In the Erris region of Erris which was the Bellmullet region in the locals the SF candidate got 1,092 votes.
In the Erris district MR allways gets a big vote, as i said before i don't pay much heed on polls the one that counts are one in elections
 

neiphin

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Was there posters for Leo, Micheal or Mary Lou, the only posters i have seen are posters of the candidates Dara, Michelle and Rose, no posters oh Micheal, Leo or Mary Lou
Plenty mehole posters
and there loads of Leo ones two weeks ago
 

Barroso

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It's a very big ask, in the 019 LE, SF got 4,633 in Mayo, G. Murray which was in the Swinford area got only 1896. In the Erris region of Erris which was the Bellmullet region in the locals the SF candidate got 1,092 votes.
In the Erris district MR allways gets a big vote, as i said before i don't pay much heed on polls the one that counts are one in elections
And in 2016, SF got 10%, 6,400 votes.
If the SF vote is anywhere near 20% nationally, RCW could expect say 15% in Mayo, and transfers.
I'd say she is in with a very good chance for the last seat, IF the SF support in the polls turn into votes.
FG are running 3 candidates, which will stretch their declining vote too wide, and put RCW ahead of Mulherrin, whose vote will drop in any case owing to FG being so unpopular. Remember, FG got 50% of the vote last time around, which they won't hold. On current showing, I'd say they won't expect much more than 35% of the 1st preferences.
 

Itsalaugh

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And in 2016, SF got 10%, 6,400 votes.
If the SF vote is anywhere near 20% nationally, RCW could expect say 15% in Mayo, and transfers.
I'd say she is in with a very good chance for the last seat, IF the SF support in the polls turn into votes.
FG are running 3 candidates, which will stretch their declining vote too wide, and put RCW ahead of Mulherrin, whose vote will drop in any case owing to FG being so unpopular. Remember, FG got 50% of the vote last time around, which they won't hold. On current showing, I'd say they won't expect much more than 35% of the 1st preferences.
FWIW, I think RCW, Ring, Calleary will take the first 3 seats and the final seat will be between Chambers and one of the FGers who if their transfers stay in the family will edge FG the 4th seat.
 

Round tower

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And in 2016, SF got 10%, 6,400 votes.
If the SF vote is anywhere near 20% nationally, RCW could expect say 15% in Mayo, and transfers.
I'd say she is in with a very good chance for the last seat, IF the SF support in the polls turn into votes.
FG are running 3 candidates, which will stretch their declining vote too wide, and put RCW ahead of Mulherrin, whose vote will drop in any case owing to FG being so unpopular. Remember, FG got 50% of the vote last time around, which they won't hold. On current showing, I'd say they won't expect much more than 35% of the 1st preferences.
In the 016 GE 3000 1st preference votes left the Ballina EA including something like 4 to 500 forKenny their has being a big move on FB in the last couple of days for keeping votes in Ballina and for people to vote 1 and 2 for Dara and Michelle and visa versa. If they can get even 2000 of them split between them it would give Michelle a very good chance.
 

midlander12

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Mayo, like Galway West, is one of those constituencies where SF have been knocking on the door for at least 2 elections. They looked doomed here after the LE results, but if the recent polls mean anything at all, this has to be a likely gain for them. Put it another way, if they don't gain here, the Shinner surge probably isn't happening.

FF 2, FG 1, SF 1
 


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