Meath East

Gemlarkin

Active member
Joined
Oct 2, 2010
Messages
239
Who will get the seats

Wallace?
Byrne?
McEntee?
Hannigan?
Doherty?

FF seem good for one seat will it be Wallace or Byrne?
 


olamp

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Joined
Mar 24, 2010
Messages
1,445
Who will get the seats

Wallace?
Byrne?
McEntee?
Hannigan?
Doherty?

FF seem good for one seat will it be Wallace or Byrne?
Who really cares? Local politics seem trivial in light of what is happening to our country.
 

bonkers

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Oct 4, 2006
Messages
24,148
i think it will be 1 ff 2fg 1lab i think wallace will loose
 

bonkers

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Oct 4, 2006
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24,148
sorry youre right,it will be 1 each with wallace losing out
 

flavirostris

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Dec 21, 2007
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24,570
Byrne(FF), McEntee(FG), Hannigan(Lab). Wallace to lose out
 

Mosaic

Member
Joined
Nov 20, 2009
Messages
18
sorry youre right,it will be 1 each with wallace losing out
No worries, I agree with you anyway. Wallace will probably lose out. Should be a fairly straightforward 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 FF in that order. Can't see FF losing both seats although they'll definitely struggle on transfers.
 

irish_bob

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 9, 2008
Messages
7,528
Who will get the seats

Wallace?
Byrne?
McEntee?
Hannigan?
Doherty?

FF seem good for one seat will it be Wallace or Byrne?

has to be one of the weakest constituencys in the country for political talent , thomas byrne is actually the most capable of all the deputys but the guy is toast

mcentee = ordinary in the extreme but an absolute sure thing

wallace = another useless fianna fail TD who may get in for the simple reason that thier are still enough people in meath who would vote for a three legged donkey were it wearing a FF jersey , shes also been around longer than thomas byrne so another case of seniority over ability being rewarded

hannigan = will sail in on the gilmore wave , polished speaker who will appeal to the commuter belt generation

doherty = who ???

ps . i dont live in the constituency but my grandparents do
 

Mosaic

Member
Joined
Nov 20, 2009
Messages
18
has to be one of the weakest constituencys in the country for political talent , thomas byrne is actually the most capable of all the deputys but the guy is toast

mcentee = ordinary in the extreme but an absolute sure thing

wallace = another useless fianna fail TD who may get in for the simple reason that thier are still enough people in meath who would vote for a three legged donkey were it wearing a FF jersey , shes also been around longer than thomas byrne so another case of seniority over ability being rewarded

hannigan = will sail in on the gilmore wave , polished speaker who will appeal to the commuter belt generation

doherty = who ???

ps . i dont live in the constituency but my grandparents do
Wallace is definitely in a better position georgraphically as Byrne is at the edge of the redrawn boundary. However he does, at least, seem to have a bit of sense and may well feature in rebuilding the soon to be devestated FF party. I think there's an awareness in the constituency that Wallace is utterly and completely useless. If FG select Doherty (who's from Wallace's area) then she'll be under real pressure.
 

Barnacle

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Sep 15, 2009
Messages
854
Wallace is definitely in a better position georgraphically as Byrne is at the edge of the redrawn boundary. However he does, at least, seem to have a bit of sense and may well feature in rebuilding the soon to be devestated FF party. I think there's an awareness in the constituency that Wallace is utterly and completely useless. If FG select Doherty (who's from Wallace's area) then she'll be under real pressure.
I agree. On the ground Regina Doherty is doing a very good job on local issues, way ahead of Wallace. It will not be an easy seat to win as it is very much considered FF territory but Wallace reputation has diminished over the past few year and many do see hers as utterly useless.
 

Hogwash

Member
Joined
Nov 17, 2010
Messages
49
I hope FG do select Regina Doherty. We need some fresh blood in the Dail and I think she's a quick learner. Would love to see her take Wallace's seat. About the only thing Wallace is good for is sending around flyers claiming credit for everything from the new train station, to roads to school extensions.
 

Mosaic

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Nov 20, 2009
Messages
18
I hope FG do select Regina Doherty. We need some fresh blood in the Dail and I think she's a quick learner. Would love to see her take Wallace's seat. About the only thing Wallace is good for is sending around flyers claiming credit for everything from the new train station, to roads to school extensions.
She's a good candidate and if selected, she could well take Wallace out, but that doesn't necessarily mean she'll take a seat. McEntee is safe and I don't see two seats for FG. However, Doherty's candidacy could well see the return of Thomas Byrne at the expense of Wallace.
 

stonethrower

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Jan 2, 2006
Messages
276
Well in the FF battle, Mary Wallace would be happy to have it believed that she will lose out to Byrne, but she is much better placed in my view. She has been a TD for over 20 years and has built up a loyal base, and they will come out and vote for her no matter how bad things get for FF. For the last 6 months she has been all over the local press and has a strong local councillor in Ratoath in Nick Killian. She is now also effectively running as the anti-Govt candidate. Regina Doherty gets the FG vote in the rural areas, but her tallies from Ratoath are poor, she was trounced by Wallace in 2007 and even last year Killian cleaned her out in Ratoath. I would say the ex-FF vote in Ratoath is more likely to go to Labour than FG. Mary's people of course also remind anyone who needs reminding that she actually lives in the constituency and Byrne doesn't. Despite her lack of effectiveness and her poor public speaking, Wallace is also personable on a one to one level which does matter on the doors.

On the other hand Byrne has the personality of a ameoba. That was OK in 2007 when he was on Bertie's team, but will cost him next time round. FF people on Meath don't worry that he is the white headed boy in HQ and is willing to defend the indefensible, they know it cuts little ice locally and actually costs him votes while Mary works away on the potholes. He is now stranded on the outskirts of Drogheda outside the constituency and unlike Mary does not have a councillor team, he person he supported didn't get elected to Meath County Council last year. He has lost a lot of votes to Louth and I don't see how he can make them up unless Mary cedes a lot of ground to him further south and the chances of that are slim.

A doomsday scenario for FF would be to lose 2 seats, but there vote would have to collapse completely for that, even more so that at present, and in Meath FF have always out performed the national figure. So as of now I would say Mary is favourite to retain her seat.

On the FG side McEntee is a shoe in. Who will still join him on the ticket is open to question. There was talk of Mairead McGuinness running in Meath East, but that doesn't make sense as she would only cannibalise the McEntee vote. Regina Doherty is in the mix, as is Maria Murphy in Dunboyne. Murphy would be a better bet for FG as she would have the whole of the south of the constituency to herself as Brian Fitzgerald is not running. Regina gets the traditional FG rural vote but based on the tallies doesn't do well in the urban areas, but ultimately it is up to the branches and word on the ground is that Maria Murphy would shade it there.

Hannigan is the sole Labour candidate and should make it home this time, although he has lost a sizeable chunk of his vote to Louth, so it is no certainty especially if Labour vote shrinks prior or during a campaign.

However as of now it should be McEntee, Hannigan and Wallace.
 

Hogwash

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Joined
Nov 17, 2010
Messages
49
I agree. Excellent & interesting analysis.

Bearing in mind that a lot of people in Killian's area would still have given him a vote last year (in spite of him being FF) as he is an effective councillor in the area - I just don't see those votes staying FF. Parish pump politics would see those local votes go to a local candidate like Doherty. It will be interesting to see if Doherty or Murphy will be selected.

Have to admit I would love to see the doomsday scenario mentioned by stonethrower actually happen!!!
 

grassroots

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Jan 7, 2007
Messages
2,417
The lesson from FG debacle in 2002 is that the high profile candidates lost. So Byrne is likely to lose on this basis. On 17% nationally both seats are at risk.
 

drummer

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Nov 20, 2010
Messages
8
The lesson from FG debacle in 2002 is that the high profile candidates lost. So Byrne is likely to lose on this basis. On 17% nationally both seats are at risk.
There's FF'er in East Meath whose whole election campaign was financed by a 'developer'. This same TD is now trying to distance himself from this fact by moving to East Meath!

I wonder who it is?:cool::eek:
 

Gemlarkin

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Joined
Oct 2, 2010
Messages
239
There is a rumor of a young Miss B joining the fray

There is a rumor of a young Miss B joining the fray, seeking a nomination for FG.
 


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