Meath West General Election

topcat4

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Can Fianna Fail hold two seats in Meath West. If they can't who is a position to win.
In my opinion FG can't take two seats here, Damian English will probably top the poll, but would not be capable of bringing in a second.
From what I believe Labour have approached Navan Councillor Anton McCabe to run, Anton is a good councillor, but would not be at the races in a General Election.
Sinn Fein are running Peadar Tobin who should poll really well, but with Sinn Fein not doing well nationally, a seat first time out may be beyond him.
With no Independents to talk of, is it possible even with Fianna Fail dying on current opinion polls that they might retain two seats in Meath West.
 


R

RepublicanSocialist1798

Can Fianna Fail hold two seats in Meath West. If they can't who is a position to win.
In my opinion FG can't take two seats here, Damian English will probably top the poll, but would not be capable of bringing in a second.
From what I believe Labour have approached Navan Councillor Anton McCabe to run, Anton is a good councillor, but would not be at the races in a General Election.
Sinn Fein are running Peadar Tobin who should poll really well, but with Sinn Fein not doing well nationally, a seat first time out may be beyond him.
With no Independents to talk of, is it possible even with Fianna Fail dying on current opinion polls that they might retain two seats in Meath West.
Labour might get a seat here on current polls and if they do well on transfers. SF didnt have a good local election in Meath and a seat might be out of reach now. It'll be either Labour or 2FG.
 

Red_93

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Can Fianna Fail hold two seats in Meath West. If they can't who is a position to win.
In my opinion FG can't take two seats here, Damian English will probably top the poll, but would not be capable of bringing in a second.
From what I believe Labour have approached Navan Councillor Anton McCabe to run, Anton is a good councillor, but would not be at the races in a General Election.
Sinn Fein are running Peadar Tobin who should poll really well, but with Sinn Fein not doing well nationally, a seat first time out may be beyond him.
With no Independents to talk of, is it possible even with Fianna Fail dying on current opinion polls that they might retain two seats in Meath West.
Would Tracy MacElhinny or Jenny McHugh not be better on the LP ticket. I don't see a labour seat there but they'd give it a decent shot.
 

locke

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It's a strange constituency.

FF look certain to lose a seat, but it's hard to see who will pick it up.

FG are a long way short are 2 quotas as are SF a good distance off 1, while Labour weren't at all credible last time out.

Some thoughts though...

Johnny Brady looks the more likely to lose. That would open up Kells for an opposition candidate. But who could that be. Only FF and FG have councillors in Kells. One of FG's councillors is former TD John Farrelly. He didn't run last time out. Could he be interested again? He's still not all that old - younger than both sitting FF TDs. Interesting to note that there were 2 Kells-based TDs not so long ago.

Between SF, Lab and the Greens, the broad left was on 17% last time. With a likely swing to Labour could transfers bring in a left candidate? Seeing that SF are likely to do better than Lab here, what proportion of Lab transfers will go to FG and what proportion to SF?
 

Tommythecommy

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Sarah Carey is most likely to top the poll

Sarah Carey will top the poll. Sarah is Daughter of outgoing County Council Cathairleach Cllr Bill Carey. The Same Sarah that writes for the Irish Times.

Sarah has done a lot to raise her profile recently with a lot of TV appearances
She is about the best prospect for a Ministry in Meath in a Fine Gael Coalition Government.

Damien English burned a lot of bridges with his attack on Kenny.

English would be in the running to take a second seat for Fine Gael.

No hope of a Ministry for McEntee in Meath East unless he secures a second seat which is a longer prospect than in Meath West.

There is at least 5% in running the only female candidate
 

bradán feasa

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I heard recently that if the poll taken in June was applied to Meath that it would mean that

FF would have 33%
FG would have 34%
SF would have 17%
Lab would have 11%
Greens would have 2%
Independents would have 3%

These figures are only the estimation of an achademic however they do put SF in reach of a seat. Also it has been said Tóibín has been most vocal in the county in recent months with regards Dempsey spending the Do.
 

Oldira1

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Can you name a better candidate for Meath West?
Is that tongue in cheek?

I could think of about 50,000 better ones. Pretty much anyone on the electoral register. Jesus! Fine Gael must be in big trouble if they would stoop to pick a fool like her.
 

Tommythecommy

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FG have not selected their ticket yet for Meath West

Is that tongue in cheek?

I could think of about 50,000 better ones. Pretty much anyone on the electoral register. Jesus! Fine Gael must be in big trouble if they would stoop to pick a fool like her.
FG have not selected their ticket yet for Meath West

One of the 2 Fine Gael Candidates will likely be a Woman and English is sure to be on the ticket also. Rumor is that Cllr Catherine Yore is not seeking a nomination. Cllr Ray Butler in Trim has declared his intention to seek a nomination.
 

redhead101

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That would open up Kells for an opposition candidate.
Kells moves to Meath East next time round, which is of the factors that makes this an interesting constituency.

FF to lose a seat with FG the likely beneficiary.
 

locke

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Kells moves to Meath East next time round, which is of the factors that makes this an interesting constituency.

FF to lose a seat with FG the likely beneficiary.
I didn't realise that.

Any word on what Brady plans as a result? I assume with FFailures in Meath East already that he won't switch over. That presumably leaves him completely screwed - the weaker FF candidate and with his base moved into a different constituency. If I was over 60 and facing that and the general prospects for FF next time out, I might consider retirement the best option!

Looking at the new boundaries Meath East looks almost as dubiously shaped as Cork East. A North-South or NorthWest-SouthEast split in Meath might have made more sense.
 

Tommythecommy

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Kells was part of English's base also

I didn't realise that.

Any word on what Brady plans as a result? I assume with FFailures in Meath East already that he won't switch over. That presumably leaves him completely screwed - the weaker FF candidate and with his base moved into a different constituency. If I was over 60 and facing that and the general prospects for FF next time out, I might consider retirement the best option!

Looking at the new boundaries Meath East looks almost as dubiously shaped as Cork East. A North-South or NorthWest-SouthEast split in Meath might have made more sense.
Kells was part of English's base also.

Johnny Brady will probably be down 3500 votes with the loss of Kells and English some 1500
 

DJP

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FG have not selected their ticket yet for Meath West

One of the 2 Fine Gael Candidates will likely be a Woman and English is sure to be on the ticket also. Rumor is that Cllr Catherine Yore is not seeking a nomination. Cllr Ray Butler in Trim has declared his intention to seek a nomination.
She has been asked to stand for the party several times and she still says "No". She wrote a column on the question a few years ago. She is not attracted to the run-of-the-mill constituency work which makes up most of the workload of TD's. Not for that many hours a week anyway.
 

Tommythecommy

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Did you ask her recently?

She has been asked to stand for the party several times and she still says "No". She wrote a column on the question a few years ago. She is not attracted to the run-of-the-mill constituency work which makes up most of the workload of TD's. Not for that many hours a week anyway.
Did you ask her recently?

She shrewdly waited until the right time to run.

This is the first opportunity for two seats in Meath West. The fact that she has not closed a business recently could be an advantage for her also.
 

DJP

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She shrewdly waited until the right time to run.
There has been no media coverage of her possibly being a candidate. I can't help but feel that you are pulling my leg.
 

Stroke

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Don't forget the Coole area of the constituency as well. Willie Penrose pulled a decent vote from there before it was lumped in with the re-drawn Meath West, will this vote go to a Co Meath based candidate from any of the parties or will it be hoovered up by a locally based candidate?

Peader Toibin won't poll as well as Joey Reilly, as a lot of Reilly's vote was personal. The Green candidate in Meath last time out has joined Labour, where will the 1000 votes he pulled go this time.

Dempsey won't get 12,000 votes this time, but he's not in trouble either. The publicy of his travel arrangements have not gone down very well, particularly after his absence during the big freeze at Christmas.

Johnnie Brady lost a lot of votes in the redrawn constituency, but he's lost a lot of weight at well, and is in an ad every week in the Chronicle endorsing the dietary consultants he used. Came out well locally from the recent stag-hunting sideshow, barring the intervention of a RISE candidate should be alright.

Damien English has no prospect of ever becoming a minister, and barring a really strong FG candidate emerging, he should do just enough to return to a career of political mediocraty. Sarah Carey has no chance of getting elected, she comes across as very insincere and start every sentence with "As a mother...". I will be very interested in her role at Esat when Moriarty publishes the Michael Lowry module of his tribunal.

Anton McCabe is a nice guy, but does not have any real support outside of Navan. If Labour employ 2 candidates in Trim and Navan, and there is a Gilmore gale on the day, FF will be firefighting in two LEA's; a proper vote management strategy might get one of them home.

The only independent than may run is Francis Deane, formerly from FG, he did well in the locals, but might not have the funds to mount a serious GE challenge.

Looks like no change, with FF vote down to 34% from 51%....
 

Crannog

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Don't forget the Coole area of the constituency as well. Willie Penrose pulled a decent vote from there before it was lumped in with the re-drawn Meath West, will this vote go to a Co Meath based candidate from any of the parties or will it be hoovered up by a locally based candidate?

Peader Toibin won't poll as well as Joey Reilly, as a lot of Reilly's vote was personal. The Green candidate in Meath last time out has joined Labour, where will the 1000 votes he pulled go this time.

Dempsey won't get 12,000 votes this time, but he's not in trouble either. The publicy of his travel arrangements have not gone down very well, particularly after his absence during the big freeze at Christmas.

Johnnie Brady lost a lot of votes in the redrawn constituency, but he's lost a lot of weight at well, and is in an ad every week in the Chronicle endorsing the dietary consultants he used. Came out well locally from the recent stag-hunting sideshow, barring the intervention of a RISE candidate should be alright.

Damien English has no prospect of ever becoming a minister, and barring a really strong FG candidate emerging, he should do just enough to return to a career of political mediocraty. Sarah Carey has no chance of getting elected, she comes across as very insincere and start every sentence with "As a mother...". I will be very interested in her role at Esat when Moriarty publishes the Michael Lowry module of his tribunal.

Anton McCabe is a nice guy, but does not have any real support outside of Navan. If Labour employ 2 candidates in Trim and Navan, and there is a Gilmore gale on the day, FF will be firefighting in two LEA's; a proper vote management strategy might get one of them home.

The only independent than may run is Francis Deane, formerly from FG, he did well in the locals, but might not have the funds to mount a serious GE challenge.

Looks like no change, with FF vote down to 34% from 51%....
Labour employing two candidates in a 3 seater where they dont hold a seat is nonsense. They are only in for a shout for one seat. The gale if it comes would work better with one good candidate getting as far up the field as possible keeping ahead of the second FG candidate and getting transfers from the smaller parties.

Running two there is a likelihood that SF could stay ahead of both and benefit from transfers to challenge for the final seat. The liklihood is that FG will take the final seat on labour transfers if they run a 2 candidate strategy.

This pattern will be repeated throughout the country
 

LgCastell

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It's a strange constituency.

FF look certain to lose a seat, but it's hard to see who will pick it up.

FG are a long way short are 2 quotas as are SF a good distance off 1, while Labour weren't at all credible last time out.

Some thoughts though...

Johnny Brady looks the more likely to lose. That would open up Kells for an opposition candidate. But who could that be. Only FF and FG have councillors in Kells. One of FG's councillors is former TD John Farrelly. He didn't run last time out. Could he be interested again? He's still not all that old - younger than both sitting FF TDs. Interesting to note that there were 2 Kells-based TDs not so long ago.

Between SF, Lab and the Greens, the broad left was on 17% last time. With a likely swing to Labour could transfers bring in a left candidate? Seeing that SF are likely to do better than Lab here, what proportion of Lab transfers will go to FG and what proportion to SF?
good analysis on meath west locke

i was looking at meath east also, curently 2 FF Mary Wallace, Thomas Byrne and one FG McEntee.....

Wallace and Byrne should be hit by the Stag Hunting Bill vote right in Ward country ...while FG and Lab opposed it it should boost the first preferences for them ...if one looks at Hannigan he was under 2000 votes from getting the last seat ...with the overall labour boost and several thousand voters departing FF over stag hunting and general gov decisions i could see hannigan getting in in Meath East should be 1 FG , 1 FF 1 Lab

whats hannigan like though?
 

topcat4

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Sarah Carey being floated as an FG candidate here, is just a red herring. Damian English will top the poll without a doubt for FG. One poster said he has no chance of ever being given a ministry, and that under Kenny is probably correct but Kenny won't be leader forever, and English has youth on his side. Damian probably will never get a full minister's job a junior minister at some stage has to be a possibility.

English has a loyal base and is popular in FG circles and that is what counts. Ray Butler is a possible second candidate and his stomping ground is Trim, which would make geographical sense to run him; however he is originally from Kells so he would have been hoping to garner some votes from there.

Peadar Tobin is the dark horse he already has a profile as a Navan Councillor, he needs to shore up the Joe Reilly vote for himself (and Joe Reilly will help do this) and he is getting a profile as the only Councillor in Meath to take Dempsey to task.

(this of course excludes the back stabbing job done by FF Councillor Shane Cassells)
 


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