Michael Martin Supports Abortion On Demand Because He Is Afraid FF Will Be Outflanked By Sinn Fein.



sic transit

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I think it is at constituency level. But how and ever.
Perhaps to a very minor degree and really not likely to make much of an impact on anything. The vast majority of voters have the same enthusiasm as politicians for this topic, don't bring it up.
 

TruthInTheNews

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I am told that there are only around six TDs in FF that favour abortion on demand. Martin is definitely in a minority in his own party on this issue and that is not a good place to be.
 

Eoin Coir

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I am told that there are only around six TDs in FF that favour abortion on demand. Martin is definitely in a minority in his own party on this issue and that is not a good place to be.
Thats the ploy leader & a few fbs like Chambers and Kelliher for, majority against. So Ref is lost thanks to majority of FF & RC Church. Win win for FF.
 

sic transit

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I am told that there are only around six TDs in FF that favour abortion on demand. Martin is definitely in a minority in his own party on this issue and that is not a good place to be.
If one favours the good old-fashioned for and agin approach. One cannot browbeat people on this any more or force people to tow a party line. Being an "anti-abortion" party or positioning themselves as such assures FG of the next government. Voters will not embrace this as a core election issue.
 

Toland

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Perhaps to a very minor degree and really not likely to make much of an impact on anything. The vast majority of voters have the same enthusiasm as politicians for this topic, don't bring it up.
There are not many votes to be lost from the religious crowd, I'll grant you that. What I think Martin is hoping for is to win some pro-repeal voters that are currently dithering between FF and FG. I doubt his stance will have much of an effect on the balance between SF and FF, though, as many are claiming this morning, but he might win some middle ground vote.

The risk is there that the ructions within his own party will be more damaging and lasting than he thinks they're going to be, but he needs to drop FF's ultra-conservative rump anyway if his party is ever to become electable again. And he badly needs to renew the membership, and the youngest age group are notattr acted to the party by early 1980s conservatism.

In short, this move is clever and very well timed, but it ain't "courageous", despite what Miriam Lord and Sean O'Rourke are suggesting.
 

hiding behind a poster

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A highly placed source in FF has admitted that Michael Martin decided to publicly support abortion on demand because he is afraid FF will be outflanked by SF particularly among younger voters. Its a tactical move to prevent younger FF voters from drifting towards SF. Martin is aware that rural FF is totally opposed to abortion on demand but he is also cognisant of the fact that FF needs to increase its support in urban areas otherwise it will become a rural party with an aging voter base. FF is a left of center party that needs the support of the under 30s to wrest back its position as the largest party in Ireland. Martin thinks the risk of alienating older FF voters is outweighed by the strategic advantage of attracting younger voters away from SF and keeping them in the FF fold.

SF liberalised its abortion policy at its last Ard Fheis by accepting a threat to the mental health of the mother as grounds for abortion.This is effectively abortion on demand.
I don't think that's the reason. I suspect it's a concession to the wing who walked him up the hill over Frances FitzGerald in November.
 

sic transit

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There are not many votes to be lost from the religious crowd, I'll grant you that. What I think Martin is hoping for is to win some pro-repeal voters that are currently dithering between FF and FG. I doubt his stance will have much of an effect on the balance between SF and FF, though, as many are claiming this morning, but he might win some middle ground vote.

The risk is there that the ructions within his own party will be more damaging and lasting than he thinks they're going to be, but he needs to drop FF's ultra-conservative rump anyway if his party is ever to become electable again. And he badly needs to renew the membership, and the youngest age group are notattr acted to the party by early 1980s conservatism.

In short, this move is clever and very well timed, but it ain't "courageous", despite what Miriam Lord and Sean O'Rourke are suggesting.
I wouldn't have gone as far as courageous but he seems to have really thought about it. I think the freedom to speak on all sides is more refreshing. Abortion is really not an issue to build a party around. It's a single issue and more of a focus for some micro entity. On top of that if repeal does go ahead, all they will be left with is doing battle on legislation. Contributions on this in the Dail across all party lines and the initial committee recommendation suggest there's no succour to be had there.
 

hiding behind a poster

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The public does not give a damn if a party allows a free vote. All they care about is party policy. FF were shaping up as the anti-abortion party but Martin's announcement has changed that. The question is will Martin's endorsement of abortion on demand damage FF in its rural heartlands especially if FG opt for a restricted abortion policy i.e. no mental health criteria. Will rural FF voters switch to FG at the next election or perhaps stay at home and opt out?
It actually makes things much easier for FG in rural Ireland, by effectively neutralising the issue. Abortion is no longer a reason for rural FG voters to switch to FF.
 

ShoutingIsLeadership

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Martin has played right into SF"s hands.

With no prolife party there can be no prolife vote.
Many, esp. older, prolife voters are also strongly supportive of a UI, so, given a choice between toxic pro-abortion parties, many will opt for their second or third agenda.

Voting for pro- abortion SF is no longer barred by conscience.
Lols
 

Destiny's Soldier

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Everything Micheal Martin has done in his entire career has been more to do with looking good for a photo opportunity rather than having a substantive, researched policy.

Martin is not a man's man he a is populist and will only express an opinion when he has nothing to loose.

In fairness to him on the smoking ban, he was on his own and he held his own.
But in every other substantive issue, he does not lead. He will only "lead" when the path has been cleared and it is safe to do so.
 

ShoutingIsLeadership

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There are not many votes to be lost from the religious crowd, I'll grant you that. What I think Martin is hoping for is to win some pro-repeal voters that are currently dithering between FF and FG. I doubt his stance will have much of an effect on the balance between SF and FF, though, as many are claiming this morning, but he might win some middle ground vote.

The risk is there that the ructions within his own party will be more damaging and lasting than he thinks they're going to be, but he needs to drop FF's ultra-conservative rump anyway if his party is ever to become electable again. And he badly needs to renew the membership, and the youngest age group are notattr acted to the party by early 1980s conservatism.

In short, this move is clever and very well timed, but it ain't "courageous", despite what Miriam Lord and Sean O'Rourke are suggesting.
Your deep hatred of everything FF clouds your judgment, betimes
 

TruthInTheNews

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I wouldn't have gone as far as courageous but he seems to have really thought about it. I think the freedom to speak on all sides is more refreshing. Abortion is really not an issue to build a party around. It's a single issue and more of a focus for some micro entity. On top of that if repeal does go ahead, all they will be left with is doing battle on legislation. Contributions on this in the Dail across all party lines and the initial committee recommendation suggest there's no succour to be had there.
No arguments were put before the Convention that we have not seen before so his decision is based on pure tactics. He has just removed a reason for not voting SF so the move could backfire on FF.

Fianna Fail the Republican Party and changed to Fianna Fail the Abortion Party.

This could be an opportunity for Renua. There is room for at least one socially conservative party under the PR system.
 

Lúidín

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TruthInTheNews: A highly placed source in FF has admitted that...
No name? No link? No source other than your own imagination. Fake news.
 

Toland

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A textbook case of "The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak"!
The spirit is certainly willing to pose as such. But the flesh is quite strong enough to strike the same pose too.

But in fact. policies are never a objective to Fianna Fáil; they're simply one instrument among many for them to gain office and keep themselves there.
 


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