Michael Martin Supports Abortion On Demand Because He Is Afraid FF Will Be Outflanked By Sinn Fein.



sic transit

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No arguments were put before the Convention that we have not seen before so his decision is based on pure tactics. He has just removed a reason for not voting SF so the move could backfire on FF.

Fianna Fail the Republican Party and changed to Fianna Fail the Abortion Party.

This could be an opportunity for Renua. There is room for at least one socially conservative party under the PR system.
All of this is based on a premise, a false one IMO, that people will vote for parties based on abortion. You may get a handful of the very zealous but come election time people care about a whole lot of other things. Renua are dead as a dodo. They couldn't rustle enough votes nationwide to get one candidate into the running in a constituency.
 

Toland

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All of this is based on a premise, a false one IMO, that people will vote for parties based on abortion. You may get a handful of the very zealous but come election time people care about a whole lot of other things. Renua are dead as a dodo. They couldn't rustle enough votes nationwide to get one candidate into the running in a constituency.
I think it could swing some middle-ground pro-repeal voters currently dithering between FG and FF. There's no point in going for the religious vote, of course, because doing so will put far more people off than attract them. But there are definitely some moderate pro-repealers who might fall for this very well timed move.

Also, as I say, Martin possibly now sees his chance to deal with FF's large reactionary rump, both at the grassroots and in the parliamentary party. They're poison to FF's long-term electoral ambitions.
 

statsman

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A highly placed source in FF has admitted that Michael Martin decided to publicly support abortion on demand because he is afraid FF will be outflanked by SF particularly among younger voters. Its a tactical move to prevent younger FF voters from drifting towards SF. Martin is aware that rural FF is totally opposed to abortion on demand but he is also cognisant of the fact that FF needs to increase its support in urban areas otherwise it will become a rural party with an aging voter base. FF is a left of center party that needs the support of the under 30s to wrest back its position as the largest party in Ireland. Martin thinks the risk of alienating older FF voters is outweighed by the strategic advantage of attracting younger voters away from SF and keeping them in the FF fold.

SF liberalised its abortion policy at its last Ard Fheis by accepting a threat to the mental health of the mother as grounds for abortion.This is effectively abortion on demand.
Maybe he just believes what he said.

And where's the link to support your claim?
 

Toland

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Maybe he just believes what he said.

And where's the link to support your claim?
The "prevent outflanking by Sinn Féin" doesn't really hold water, imo. And now that the Sinn Féin tide appears to be going out again, I think his eyes are on the centre and centre-right section of the electorate that dithers between FF and FG. And this is an area where Varadkar has been doing very well lately.

As I say, if Martin actually believes in the political stance he takes on any issue at all, it'll be little more than a happy coincidence.
 

TruthInTheNews

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The "prevent outflanking by Sinn Féin" doesn't really hold water, imo. And now that the Sinn Féin tide appears to be going out again, I think his eyes are on the centre and centre-right section of the electorate that dithers between FF and FG. And this is an area where Varadkar has been doing very well lately.

As I say, if Martin actually believes in the political stance he takes on any issue at all, it'll be little more than a happy coincidence.
Mary Lou is the new leader of SF as of today. I expect the SF tide to rise again.
 

statsman

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The "prevent outflanking by Sinn Féin" doesn't really hold water, imo. And now that the Sinn Féin tide appears to be going out again, I think his eyes are on the centre and centre-right section of the electorate that dithers between FF and FG. And this is an area where Varadkar has been doing very well lately.

As I say, if Martin actually believes in the political stance he takes on any issue at all, it'll be little more than a happy coincidence.
True, but you can't discount the possibility entirely.
 

Toland

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Mary Lou is the new leader of SF as of today. I expect the SF tide to rise again.
Frankly, I don't. She's good, but the electorate and media are sexist, and she's every bit as easy a target as Joan Burton, to take one very non-random example.

And the leadership move southwards is bound to set off some internal problems, imo, on top of the growing internal problems they already have.

But my crystal ball hasn't always proved accurate in the past.
 

Plebian

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Why would he only be afraid of being out flanked by SF? FG are FFs main competition by a long way, and it's there in the boring centre that elections are won or lost.

Whatever his reason for supporting repeal of the 8th, it is a good logical choice for him as leader to be joining in with the likes of Chambers and Kelleher to make FF appear relevant for the future. Pigeonholing itself as a party paralysed by mass conservatism would be a huge blow to FFs chances of appealing to the mass of voters.
 

Toland

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Why would he only be afraid of being out flanked by SF? FG are FFs main competition by a long way, and it's there in the boring centre that elections are won or lost.

Whatever his reason for supporting repeal of the 8th, it is a good logical choice for him as leader to be joining in with the likes of Chambers and Kelleher to make FF appear relevant for the future. Pigeonholing itself as a party paralysed by mass conservatism would be a huge blow to FFs chances of appealing to the mass of voters.
It's about clawing back dithering voters from FG, alright, imo. He appears to have decided the reactionary vote is no longer much of an issue. Seeing what happened to Renua and other conservative blips on the radar, he's probably right.

I really don't follow the logic of it having anything to do with SF.
 

damus

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The public does not give a damn if a party allows a free vote. All they care about is party policy. FF were shaping up as the anti-abortion party but Martin's announcement has changed that. The question is will Martin's endorsement of abortion on demand damage FF in its rural heartlands especially if FG opt for a restricted abortion policy i.e. no mental health criteria. Will rural FF voters switch to FG at the next election or perhaps stay at home and opt out?
Couldn't give a damn what party political policy will be on abortion. For me I'd be more concerned about a party dictating what position TD's should adopt about what is essentially a deeply private & personal family matter.
 

Angler

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Bye the bye, I noticed an influx of Proselytizing types here locally, money pouring in ?.
 

Not The End Of The World

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OP has it right. Plus the double whammy of stealing a lead on Varadkar, showing decisive leadership with the Taoiseach seen to be dithering. Good move. I can't help but think it's purely a ploy to grab votes rather than any sincere heartfelt view on the issue. Make or break this year for Martin.
 


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