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Mid Ulster by election


Dame_Enda

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The polls have only been open a few hours. The count starts after polls close at 10 today though.
 

Just Jack

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Far from uniting unionists, I reckon this Lutton fella will achieve an embarrassing total, perhaps between 10,000 or 12,000.
 

InsideImDancing

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Have to agree, he might even come third, behind Sinn Féin. ;)
How close are the SDLP here? Do you see them making any gains on last time? I reckon they might make a little gain, a see a few SF voters not bothering to turn out, but they will win.
 

devonish

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How close are the SDLP here? Do you see them making any gains on last time? I reckon they might make a little gain, a see a few SF voters not bothering to turn out, but they will win.
Will be interesting to see if many unionists lend their vote to the SDLP, it's what I would do if I lived in mid ulster (not an area that appeals so most unlikely).
 

Just Jack

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I expect the Provos to rump home tbh

Can't see anything other than a comfortable Francie win.
 

belfast1981

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Don't see anyone other than SF winning this seat. Lutton will scrape 3rd at best I think. Maybe 4th if Alliance get a good turn out.
 

InsideImDancing

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Don't see anyone other than SF winning this seat. Lutton will scrape 3rd at best I think. Maybe 4th if Alliance get a good turn out.
SF to rump home with Lutton second. Admittedly I haven't much of a clue about the intricacies of these things, but I think Marty polled over 50% last time.
 

Fra_south_Derry

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Turnout will probably be in the 55-60% region. In 2010 in south Derry the turnout was lower in unionists areas than nationalist ones so it'll be interesting what effect if any the joint unionist candidate has.
 

Fra_south_Derry

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SF to rump home with Lutton second. Admittedly I haven't much of a clue about the intricacies of these things, but I think Marty polled over 50% last time.
Without McGuinness running I'd expect Molloy to get around 47/48 % of the vote although Pasty is popular and comes from the green wing of the sdlp.
 

InsideImDancing

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Turnout will probably be in the 55-60% region. In 2010 in south Derry the turnout was lower in unionists areas than nationalist ones so it'll be interesting what effect if any the joint unionist candidate has.
I would have imagined turnout would be much lower, 40-50%, as I was saying though, I don't follow the details of these things much.
 

belfast1981

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SF to rump home with Lutton second. Admittedly I haven't much of a clue about the intricacies of these things, but I think Marty polled over 50% last time.
The only way I can see Lutton doing well is if Unionists come out vote in mass. Unionists have had low turn outs in some areas in the past, and I think the 'flag issue' may well see them come out and vote for the first time in a long time. Still see SF winning by a good margin though.
 

belfast1981

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Just doing the math based on 2010.

SF got 52% of the vote with 21,239 votes
The 3 Unionist parties combined got 32.5% of the vote with 13380 votes

Interesting to note SF got less votes in 2010 than they did in 2005 but still got a higher % of the vote in total.

DUP dropped nearly 5000 votes between 2005 and 2010 and lost 9.1% of their voters from 2005

Mid Ulster (UK Parliament constituency) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 

Dame_Enda

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Could be an interesting test of the Irish/Northern Irish theory. If the SDLP perform stronger than expected or even win the seat, it would be confirmed.
 

Fra_south_Derry

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Not really. Pasty is as green as they get in the sdlp.

The only issue that would cost SF dear in a place like this was if they endorsed a more liberal abortion position.
 

devonish

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Could be an interesting test of the Irish/Northern Irish theory. If the SDLP perform stronger than expected or even win the seat, it would be confirmed.
If SF have polled around 50% in the past then the result is a foregone conclusion. The only interesting bit will be whether there is any form of shift in voter patterns, rather unexciting as far as by elections go.
 

Dame_Enda

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If SF have polled around 50% in the past then the result is a foregone conclusion. The only interesting bit will be whether there is any form of shift in voter patterns, rather unexciting as far as by elections go.
The outcome is likely to be a SF win, but it will be interesting to see if there is a shift to the more moderate Nationalism of the SDLP. It could help confirm whether the growing partitionism seen in the Spotlight poll has any basis in reality.
 

shantykelly

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Mar 19, 2010
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Might be wrong, but I don't think there'll be a shift to the SDLP; they're pretty rudderless at the minute. Then again, all politics is local, and I've no idea as to the work being done on the ground by the SDLP.
 
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