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Midlands-Northwest EU Constituency: Discussion & Predictions


the secretary

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AFAIK there isn't a thread on this constituency as of yet.


The constituency is a huge, sprawling one stretching from Malin Head to south Kildare across to Clifden.
There are 4 seats up for grabs here.
Currently there is:
1 FG, Mairead Mc Guinness(Louth)
1 SF, Matt Carthy( Monaghan)
2 Indos, Ming( Roscommon) & Marian Harkin(Sligo).
FF messed up here last time, losing out by 250 if memory serves me right.

This time we have Mc Guinness again for FG and a former Rose of Tralee winner from Mayo, Maria Walsh. Mc Guinness will top the poll IMO, she is a high profile MEP.
SF with one candidate will easily elect Carthy although it will only be for a short while as he is also a GE candidate which is coming up soon. Martina Anderson will likely replace him.
Ming got a great vote last time fair play to him. I know very little about him. Has his profile dipped therefore will his FPV also dip?
The last I heard was that Marian Harkin wasnt for running but there hasn't been any formal declaration of this yet, maybe she has changed her mind. I like her but fear an organised FF will spell the end for her.

FF have two TDs running. So much for Martin not wanting TDs to run! Smith is vastly experienced and is a proven vote getter. IMO he will take a seat. His running mate is Ann Rabbitte from east Galway. She was likely added for gender reasons.
So thats 1 each for FG, FF, SF and an Indo.

Thoughts folks???
 

PBP voter

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Our MEPs are generally cannon fodder who are whipped into line by the German and French MEPs in their groups.

Harkin is in with the liberals so to suggest she is an independent voice is wrong.
 

stray creditor

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I've heard that a lot of people who voted for him in '14 are disappointed with him since being elected- they see it that he has not done much since being elected.
His opposition to PESCO makes him worth having there again.
 

Round tower

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Maria Walsh of FG could be the dark horse in the elctions, would be well known as a former rose of Tralee and the only candidate from Mayo, strong showing from MMG could put FG with an outside chance of 2 seats, hope Ming loses out to her
 

bagel

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Since his election to the European Parliament Ming gets very little exposure on our mainstream media so naturally people assume he's doing sfa. If people only checked out his facebook page they'd be amazed at the huge amount of work Ming is actually doing. If he's not re-elected then we'll have nobody in the european parliament that'll keep us informed of the shenanigans and legislation detrimental to us.
 

locke

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How does geography impact on Midlands-NW?

In such a large constituency, you'd wonder if this could be as important for transfers as party support
 

the secretary

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How does geography impact on Midlands-NW?

In such a large constituency, you'd wonder if this could be as important for transfers as party support
Yes its important, this is Ireland we are talking about.
I would vote for my favourite candidate no matter where they come from as it's about the quality of the candidate in the EU elections. But there are many many people who will vote for or give a high preference to their most local candidate.
 

locke

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I completely agree.

But as you say, it's Ireland. Even in urban constituencies it happens to some extent and it's even more prevalent in rural constituencies. But in places the size of Midlands-NW and South, and in European elections where the relationship between candidate ideology and outcome is less clear, you could really see it kicking in.

Having said that, this wasn't clear in the last election. Galway didn't elect an MEP despite being the largest county in Midlands-NW. And in South, there were three Cork MEP and one Kerry MEP in a constituency that spreads up to Wicklow.
 

PBP voter

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Casey is standing.

Expect him to get elected.

 

Round tower

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Casey is standing.

Expect him to get elected
.

With Marian Harkin not running it gives him a chance, if he runs the campaign like he did the presidental campaign it's hard to know as the issues of travellers would not be a European issue.
 

Dame_Enda

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CU was the strongest region for Casey in the Presidential election, though he didn't come first there (except in Roscommon maybe).
 
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