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Milward Brown for Sindo 1/6/13 FF and FG dead even at 27%


Boy M5

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So the 2 main parties remain head and head at 27%.

This follows on from last week's RedC poll in SBP.

Opinion poll suggests FF & FG support at 27% - RTÉ News


Will they create an FF / FG coalition? It might be the only realistic option.

Also on a personal level neither party strike me as particularly competent and more focused on party than country.
 

Boy M5

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Please merge the 2 threads mods. Apologies.
 

odlum

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The people are coming back in droves to FF. This is not only about the excellent constructive opposition but it is a tribute to Micheál Martin's superb leadership skills.
 

ger12

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The people are coming back in droves to FF. This is not only about the excellent constructive opposition but it is a tribute to Micheál Martin's superb leadership skills.
Indeed odlum. If only FF had been in government during the boom. ;)
 

Sierra

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Will they create an FF / FG coalition? It might be the only realistic option.
I don't really get that analysis at all. The opinion polls have been indicating that FG / FF remain in competition amongst each other as the two largest parties. Why would they end up in coalition together? If they are neck on neck now it would also suggest that FF could pull ahead somewhat prior to the next election if economic recovery does not take hold in any meaningful fashion. Fair enough, if FF recovery failed to take hold and they were still on 15% then I could see them as a junior coalition party - but not when they are heading towards 30%. There is too much of an incentive for both FG & FF to stay away from one another.

Either Labour, or more likely SF, will be the bargain makers next time around I reckon.
 

Tea Party Patriot

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The people are coming back in droves to FF. This is not only about the excellent constructive opposition but it is a tribute to Micheál Martin's superb leadership skills.
:shock:
 

A REASON

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You know when people say I wont vote because it doesn't make any difference? Well they're right.
It's gonna be either FF or the blueshirts with some other losers along for the ride. It's a joke but not a funny one.
 

Boy M5

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I don't really get that analysis at all. The opinion polls have been indicating that FG / FF remain in competition amongst each other as the two largest parties. Why would they end up in coalition together? If they are neck on neck now it would also suggest that FF could pull ahead somewhat prior to the next election if economic recovery does not take hold in any meaningful fashion.

Either Labour, or more likely SF, will be the bargain makers next time around I reckon.
But with the majority a 54% vote would command and what is the difference between the 2 parties?
Is it a cultural difference? That the 2 lots of activists (particularly) don't get on
 

viper999

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Fg/ff/lab and even sf are all blatant europhiles who are intent on joining a federal Europe, I wouldn't vote for any of them,what we badly need is a Ukip euro skeptic style party here to fight the liberal trash coming from Europe, to watch all our politicians go along with every decision and directive from Brussels is stomach churning, traitors the lot of them
 

Sierra

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But with the majority a 54% vote would command and what is the difference between the 2 parties?
Is it a cultural difference? That the 2 lots of activists (particularly) don't get on
More of a case that each will know there is a real threat to their future if they go into a coalition government together. What do they have to gain by doing so? It just seems to me that the potential for such a coalition to be a lose lose situation is too great to make it likely to occur. It is in the fundamental interest of both FG & FF to keep the current political order going, so why would they go into coalition together and bring that all to an end?

I remain firm in my belief that support for independents is being overstated, and that when it comes to an election (which is a long time off yet) we will see support move back towards the established parties.

what we badly need is a Ukip euro skeptic style party
Is that what the people really want though? The last time we had a party which was arguing that Europe was bad for us, in its current form, it crashed and burned spectacularly.
 

SideysGhost

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I don't really get that analysis at all. The opinion polls have been indicating that FG / FF remain in competition amongst each other as the two largest parties. Why would they end up in coalition together?
If they both remain in the 20s, and especially if both are transfer-toxic then neither will get the sort of seat bonus that the Irish system of PR tends to give to the larger parties. It won't be easy for either of them to find the sort of collection of mudguards they'd need to form a government especially if the non-FF/FG vote is divided across a whole range of other parties and Indos. The only plausible stable option might turn out to be FF/FG.

It'd probably be in the long term interests of the country to bring an end to the ridiculous phoney war between two identical conservative gombeen parties.
 

Tea Party Patriot

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More of a case that each will know there is a real threat to their future if they go into a coalition government together. What do they have to gain by doing so? It just seems to me that the potential for such a coalition to be a lose lose situation is too great to make it likely to occur.

I remain firm in my belief that support for independents is being overstated, and that when it comes to an election (which is a long time off yet) we will see support move back towards the established parties.



Is that what the people really want though? The last time we had a party which was arguing that Europe was bad for us, in its current form, it crashed and burned spectacularly.
I wouldn't think that is the case, the thing to remember with independents is that they are not a single grouping, you could easily have four or five independents standing on different platforms splitting the vote between in one constituency, and then there is no coherency of transfers between independents either.

Not matter how the independent vote is at in the polls it is impossible to know how it will play out on polling day and you just don't know which independents will get that vote.
 

Sierra

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If they both remain in the 20s, and especially if both are transfer-toxic then neither will get the sort of seat bonus that the Irish system of PR tends to give to the larger parties.
Do you really think they will both remain in the 20's though? Keep in mind an election is most likely at least a couple of years off yet. FF are planning to be on 30% for the local elections, and it is looking increasingly likely that they will hit that target.

I know a lot of us would have found it impossible to believe, and will be bitterly disappointed if it comes to pass, but I wouldn't be surprised if FF took 35% going into the next GE. Maybe even more. I thought that their 'recovery' might be short lived in nature, and that they would get stuck on 25% (what they got during the local elections in 09, which must still have been hardcore support considering the conditions at the time). Seems I was wrong though.

Look at the trend across the world. Political parties which were in power when the economic collapse began are making big comebacks.

Of course that analysis will change if FF support increases only at the expense of FG and FG in turn implode, but I dont see that happening. FG will hold steady in the low 20's at worst.
 

ger12

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74% of people are dissatisfied with how the Government is running the country.
 

FakeViking

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The people are coming back in droves to FF. This is not only about the excellent constructive opposition but it is a tribute to Micheál Martin's superb leadership skills.
That's just brilliant. Short, pithy, straight out of Father Ted. Your best yet.
 

Sierra

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I wouldn't think that is the case, the thing to remember with independents is that they are not a single grouping, you could easily have four or five independents standing on different platforms splitting the vote between in one constituency, and then there is no coherency of transfers between independents either.

Not matter how the independent vote is at in the polls it is impossible to know how it will play out on polling day and you just don't know which independents will get that vote.
I just get the feeling, and research has hinted at this, that the support for independents is sort of a "all them politicians are the same, I'm voting independent" type of attitude. However I still feel that when push comes to shove the electorate will move back to the party system. We have an incredibly conservative electorate in my view.
 

Boy M5

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what are sinn fein and labour on?
11(-1) 17(-2).

Now this is Sindo poll. Sindo is catnip for middle Ireland tho.
There was a question mark on the MW methodology in the past but I believe its changed.
 
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