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Morgan Kelly - a legend


HarshBuzz

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Saint Morgan

even if he didn't know what he talking about (which he evidently does), he became my hero last year when he lambasted Cowen and Lenihan as 'buffoons' in front of room full of VIPs

I think I have a man crush on him to be honest
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Tomas Mor

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Morgan Kelly is a great person. A pity his warnings were not heeded in 2006. He predicted no soft landing only a real crash. But Bertie and Biffo would not listen
 

slumdog1971

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Saint Morgan

even if he didn't know what he talking about (which he evidently does), he became my hero last year when he lambasted Cowen and Lenihan as 'buffoons' in front of room full of VIPs

I think I have a man crush on him to be honest
I admire him for his absolute honesty and his firm belief in what his says and for his superb economic knowledge.

But we have to be careful as well. He must know that economics is a lot about confidence as well.

Becasue he is such a respected commentator his words will be listened to and I beleive he should become more responsible with his comments and search for the green shoots (albeit they are few).

I think we need those commentators who predicted the disaster to start looking for the positives. We need to get rid of the national fear and it is people like Morgan Kelly, Brian Lucey etc who can do it.
 

He3

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Irritating as hell to the sycophants and talented with it.

“The effortless miscalculations, the assured non-sequiturs, the lofty indifference to facts: all reveal Brian Lenihan as a master of what Princeton philosopher Harry Frankfurt defined succinctly in his 1986 paper, On Bullshít .”

He reminds me of Alan Quinlan.
 

HarshBuzz

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I admire him for his absolute honesty and his firm belief in what his says and for his superb economic knowledge.

But we have to be careful as well. He must know that economics is a lot about confidence as well.

Becasue he is such a respected commentator his words will be listened to and I beleive he should become more responsible with his comments and search for the green shoots (albeit they are few).

I think we need those commentators who predicted the disaster to start looking for the positives. We need to get rid of the national fear and it is people like Morgan Kelly, Brian Lucey etc who can do it.
yeah, let's set up a thought police to crack down on free opinions :lol:

Morgan Kelly is about a million % more 'responsible' than any of the gobshytes who have been 'commentating' in the Irish media for the last decade. I for one wish him to continue in that vein. Tell us exactly how bad things are and why - then let people make their own minds up.

Now stop dissing my main squeeze
 

mr_anderson

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Am I wrong in thinking McWilliams was screaming long before Kelly ?
The first I heard of Kelly was in 2006 - too late in my opinion, as the bubble was already at its zenith. The damage had already been done.

McWilliams, on the otherhand, was issuing warnings at the time of its formation, and had the government taken on board these warnings back then, we may have avoided this current mess.
 

Oppenheimer

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He does face a challenge though, that to be actually listened to and HEARD by those that have their paws on the steering elements of the economy he needs to get "involved" more, however distasteful that may seem to him.

"Rather that Kelly used it as an opportunity to lecture rather than workshop. He didn’t circulate a paper in advance, unlike the other contributors. He’s not interested in anybody’s views.”
 

slumdog1971

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yeah, let's set up a thought police to crack down on free opinions :lol:

Morgan Kelly is about a million % more 'responsible' than any of the gobshytes who have been 'commentating' in the Irish media for the last decade. I for one wish him to continue in that vein. Tell us exactly how bad things are and why - then let people make their own minds up.

Now stop dissing my main squeeze
No doubt he is responsible and articulate and absolutely correct in everything he has said. But we need to lose the fear. Everywhere you look people are frightened of losing their pay, their hours, their homes and I think we need confidence to get people and the economy to start working again (Along with a load of other things). I think respected commentators are the people to re-engineer that confidence.

My main squeeze is the legandary songtress Dido with her melodic tones of love and her grasp on the vagaries of humun existence. A wonderful talent, the female McGowen and not a mention of the economic collapse. :D
 

Libero

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slumdog71 said:
But we have to be careful as well. He must know that economics is a lot about confidence as well.

Becasue he is such a respected commentator his words will be listened to and I beleive he should become more responsible with his comments and search for the green shoots (albeit they are few).

I think we need those commentators who predicted the disaster to start looking for the positives. We need to get rid of the national fear and it is people like Morgan Kelly, Brian Lucey etc who can do it.
And if people like Kelly and Lucey are adamant that Ireland requires profound structural change and shifts in policy before they can feel confident, will you support their prescriptions?

Or will you turn on them as failing to provide the required confidence?

The PR spinners behind this government are still working away, and now want us to ignore all the broken parts of the economy, all the unbalances, all the new debt, all the pre-existing debt, and concentrate instead on confidence - as if it's a lack of confidence that is the cause of our ills, and as if a restoration of confidence will somehow cause all those millstones to disappear from around our necks.

Don't be taken for a fool. To find recovery, Ireland needs a lot more than confidence. And premature confidence, i.e. false hope, will make it harder to achieve those reforms and rebalance the economy, while keeping in office the people least suited to bringing it about.
 

HarshBuzz

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No doubt he is responsible and articulate and absolutely correct in everything he has said. But we need to lose the fear. Everywhere you look people are frightened of losing their pay, their hours, their homes and I think we need confidence to get people and the economy to start working again (Along with a load of other things). I think respected commentators are the people to re-engineer that confidence.
confidence is ephemeral, you cannot measure it (although a few indices do try) and one man writing an article pointing out that Lenihan is a liar and a conman isn't going to make a hell of a lot of difference one way or the other. Even when he's right.

people are frightened for good reasons, they are hoarding cash and not spending it on crap (imported) they don't need. They're scared of unemployment, collapsing banks, plummeting house prices, increasing taxes, diminished public services, failing health insurers, an untrustoworthy government run by drunks, liars and frauds. They are correct to be frightened - it's a logical state of mind to be in at present. If someone came to me spouting happy-clappy optimism about the future, I'd kick him\her in the arse and tell him\her to cop on to himself.

This is a good thing in the long run; maybe they might invest that hoarded cash in productive industries that will boost our lond-term productive capacity. That's not a particularly Irish thing to do however. :rolleyes:

My main squeeze is the legandary songtress Dido with her melodic tones of love and her grasp on the vagaries of humun existence. A wonderful talent, the female McGowen and not a mention of the economic collapse. :D
she's all yours, Kylie will be mine.
 

Shambo

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The man is a living legend, I first heard of him in 2007 when I discovered the Property Pin, after Brendan Burgess banned discussions on property prices on AAM

I don't get get this nonsense about talking down the economy, I would much rather know how bad things are likely to get and then make a calculated decision (e.g buying a house) than be told everythimng will be rosey.

I suppose it is human nature to hope that everything will be ok- I remember when we bought our house in 2000 - a 3 bed semi D in Celbridge-at the time it cost IR£146950 and we were worried about spending that much money(seems laughable now but I remember a few sleepless nights when we were debating whether we shoud go for it or not) on a house, but we did what most people do a persuaded ourselves that we'd survive
"Our salaries will only go up"
"If needs be we can rent a room"
"We can live on beans and toast"
"It will always only go up in value"
"We can just do up the living room and kitchen and do the rest of the rooms over the next few years"

I remember other economists from around 2003 or 2004 saying prices would stabilise and this bloody soft landing was just around the corner- funny how it was economists from banks etc who were saying that!

If more people had discovered Morgan Kelly in 2006 then there would be a lot less people in negative equity now, but then again,, it is human nature to hear what you want to hear.

Anyone else remember Brendan Keenan sneering at Morgan Kelly on Prime Time around the time of the bank guarantee?
 

slumdog1971

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confidence is ephemeral, you cannot measure it (although a few indices do try) and one man writing an article pointing out that Lenihan is a liar and a conman isn't going to make a hell of a lot of difference one way or the other. Even when he's right.

people are frightened for good reasons, they are hoarding cash and not spending it on crap (imported) they don't need. They're scared of unemployment, collapsing banks, plummeting house prices, increasing taxes, diminished public services, failing health insurers, an untrustoworthy government run by drunks, liars and frauds. They are correct to be frightened - it's a logical state of mind to be in at present. If someone came to me spouting happy-clappy optimism about the future, I'd kick him\her in the arse and tell him\her to cop on to himself.
I don't want him to be singing from the rafters but there are some not so bad things happening to the economy.

The figures of despair, the 73bn to bail out banks, the 25bn deficit, the 12bn structural deficit and all well known but if we keep focussing on the negatives we will either become ruined by despair or swamped by doom (pardon the language).

Morgan kelly, Lucey and McWilliams are the only people who can promote some confidence. Our Politicans are an absolute nightmare, our media is poor, the church is being torn apart, the ps is facing constant attack(some justified, some irresponsible), our banks are pathethic, our courts messed over by rehabilitation rather than punishment. The list goes on and on.

We need people we respect and unfortunately for us the only people we now respect are academic economists.
 

HarshBuzz

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Morgan kelly, Lucey and McWilliams are the only people who can promote some confidence. Our Politicans are an absolute nightmare, our media is poor, the church is being torn apart, the ps is facing constant attack(some justified, some irresponsible), our banks are pathethic, our courts messed over by rehabilitation rather than punishment. The list goes on and on.

We need people we respect and unfortunately for us the only people we now respect are academic economists.
god forbid that people should make their own minds up!
 

libertarian-right

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Apr 23, 2007
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Morgan kelly, Lucey and McWilliams are the only people who can promote some confidence.
What kind of "confidence" are you talking about? They cant ignore all the negative factors and just say "Exports look like they have stabilised."

Is it the kind of confidence Pat the plank Kenny talks about on the Frontline

"You decided to buy a home now, at the bottom"

"Pat we might not be at the bottom"

"Well...very near the bottom"

"No Pat your wrong...stop giving awful advise Pat, cmon now Pat, there's enough people in negative equity and stuck as a debt monkey."
 

slumdog1971

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god forbid that people should make their own minds up!

I know what you're saying and you are right.

But it is never that easy. We need to start hearing the positives before we start believing them and the only people we believe are those who had nothing to gain from selling us the boom.
 

WTTR

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"He believes that Irish politicians and economists have been sleep-walking."

The doom merchant whose warnings don't seem so far-fetched anymore - The Irish Times - Tue, Apr 13, 2010

Become a disciple quick. Listen to the experts not the teachers, care workers, country solicitors, bike shop owner, barristers in DAIL EIREANN.
This man hit the radar around 2006, when the economy was turning from boom to burst. He is an academic; he follows trends after some other State agency publishes the statistics - a typical Economist. The start of the Doom period had set in before he came public with his diagnosis. It did not please the "Vested Interests" who were trying to cover-up the downward curves and give the impression that everything was fine.

The Bankers would have known all this years beforehand; that the economy was been smothered with all kinds of derivative investment products and that the whole house of cards would come tumbling down. The only surprise was that it took so long. But the bankers were not running the economy; this was the job of the politicians and government apparatus. There is the real hidden story; what caused them to be so blind to the very apparent rip-off of the citizens of the island of Ireland?

The following extracts were taken from a detailed near half page article by Michael Commins (now with the Mayo News)in the Western People April 2, 2003.
Sleep-walking politicians get wake-up call from Kiltimagh man who has left media economists in the shade

Since 1998, Kiltimagh native John Higgins has been warning about the changing demographics not only in Ireland but in Europe, serious threats to the traditional cultures of Europe, turmoil on the Stock Markets and the disastrous handling of Irish managed Pension Funds.---------------

One is reminded of Kris Kristofferson's songwords from "The Preacher" " and their voices have been scattered by the swirling winds of time 'cause the truth remains that noone wants to know". And it appears that such has been the case of the "experts" in relation to John's perceptive reading of the overall picture.

As far back as April 1997! John was challenging the rosy picture of the Irish Economy being conveyed by the ESRI. "The EC is rapidly becoming a giant retirement home. The elderly will represent nearly 33% of the population between the ages of 15-64 by the year 2020. Ireland's birthrate has fallen by 27% in the period 1980 to 1996. Is it time to wipe the dust from our eyes and question the balance of the ECs present affluence with the ability to survive?," he wrote in a letter to the Irish Times.

Reading the signs

The following are extracts from the last three yearbooks produced by the Mayo Association Dublin.
"Added pressure on our youth is the onerous financial burden of funding a pension because of the longer life expectancy, often running to £200-£1,000 monthly. Pension contributions as opposed to having children are encourage by very attractive tax breaks. A worrying factor is that the bulk of this money is invested in a volatile Stock Exchange."

"House prices in our built up areas are among the highest in Europe even though we have one of the lowest population densities. Land for building-on has become a scarce resource in modern day Ireland. Are we mad! We have one of the least population/land densities in the world. Are we really lacking the abilities to solve this scandalous situation? This is happening because money is diverted from having children."

"The policy of putting aside a pension sinking fund is laudable, but the misapprehension that this is enough to look after the future pension needs of today’s workers is only demonstrating a total lack of knowledge of the international vicissitudes of the monetary system. Money and wealth should be viewed as a means to achieve a better quality of life for all citizens rather than as an end in itself. Once a country gives indications of going into reverse growth, the money flies out e.g. a net EURO 140 billion left the Euro Zone in 1999."

"They (our leaders) must stop trying to emulate materially wealthy countries, but take time to examine the core values of life that insures the perpetuity of their race. There were 56% more births throughout Europe in 1964 than in 1998"

"There are few signs emanating from Europe that any other policy other than monetary (completely useless) to reverse this downward trend is even being considered. This increasingly unbalanced society will pull down any robust small society that comes under its influence! Similar to County Mayo during the Twentieth Century, Europe will suffer from the loss of its young men and women.

"Our society and that of most of the Western World is being progressively weakened. Where does the buck stop? There is an element of know-how missing, a deficit of knowledge at our Cabinet Table! It appears to be blind as to the long-term results of any actions that it takes.

"It is no great achievement to make money or be the best economy in the world if it is built on the backs of a falling birth rate! This is pure base human behaviour and is an insult to our ancestors. We need to come up a few notches on the intellectual plane and start using our ‘Use of Reason’.

"We will be caught in the dangerous eddy as the great Western Economies go into rapid decline, caused by the hidden power of demographics and not any highly visible terrorist deed. Discount the wealth of a childless Nation, you get ZERO value! ceteris paribus.

"Money and investment will eventually flee a country whose birth rate continues to fall; this is only pure logic, but maybe not to those people who are living above their station! i.e. lacking pure handed down foundation principles of life (Christian, Islamic or whatever)! The falling birth rate has severely shifted the fundamentals and undermined the growth of the Capitalist Markets of the Western World. There is a wall of ignorance out there that is in all truthfulness very difficult to understand!

The rip-off culture

"The one area where we can have control is savings. Our fund managers only react when there is an explosion or war, they do not adequately read the fundamentals that lead to the explosion or war. The end result is that there will be no reserves/resources left for the hard working Irish person when the economy goes into reverse"

And John sees evidence of the "rip-off" culture emerging everywhere in Irish society. "Ireland is being ripped off through higher prices charged by multi-national business, e.g. insurance costs, high prices for pop concerts (Euro120 as against Euro45 on the continent for Paul McCartney). cars, etc.

The Irish Race


In the "Western" in recent weeks we read of the fall off in numbers attending primary school in the general Ballintubber region of central Mayo with GAA officials expressing concern that the playing facilities set up by the hard work of many members and volunteers over the years may end up being wasted because of long term projections. One person said it would be hard to field a decent 7 a side team because of the fall-off in numbers.

Says John: It is time to ask the question “where is the Irish Race going?” The teaching and practice of Roman Catholic Doctrine is the corner stone of modern Irishness world-wide. But (here at home) is now forgotten in the exploitation of our young twenty and thirty year olds by many people who should know better."

"Our modern leaders from the last quarter of the 20th century are unfortunately presiding over the horrendous job of shutting down the cradle of production, of the Irish Stock on this planet"

"Given the rapid decrease in our birth rate, anthropologists will in two hundred years probably have to search in areas like Coventry, Boston and Manchester for traces of Irish genes. There is a huge problem looming on this Isle, please do not continue to wear blinkers!"

In last year's Mayo Yearbook. John Higgins said the things that many economists and political commentators are afraid to say because of this new evil of "political correctness". He went straight to the heart of the matter with his comments in relation to our falling birthrate.

"Our smartest women are sent out to prop up a world that is based on Unfettered Materialism. They don’t have time to have children. This is the ultimate irony! Our society and that of most of the Western World is being progressively weakened."

"It appears from practical observance, that lack of religious values, spells a rapid deterioration in morals and subsequent unstoppable petering out of a race. This takes place within a life span of two to three generations for a democratic civilisation that sells practices that prohibit the most natural occurring outcome in Human Nature i.e. natural conception."

"The proponents of core Christianity are in the main, few in numbers. The Western World has become weak as a result. It is not that Islam is getting stronger. The current world problems are there; because an element in the Islamic world recognises this inherent weakness, and hope to reap some advantage by causing panic with terrorists deeds and will continue to do so"

"Unless we change our social doctrine, Western Civilisation will be sitting ducks for opposing culture groupings throughout the 21st Century."

John Higgins believes that Irish politicians and economists have been sleep-walking. And his conclusions are as frightening as they are dramatic.

"It has to be said that society, as we know it, is in almost unstoppable decline; we are on the verge of losing our culture, beliefs all in the name of individualism as opposed to what is best for the community. This loss will not come from emigration, as in County Mayo’s case, but from the fact that they were never born!"
This article was circulated to politicians right up and down Irish Society, even to members of the Cabinet.

For a so called knowledgeable society, we have built up many Chinese Walls. It is time that our intelligentsia started thinking outside the box that our education system appears to have molded them into.

And it goes on and on and on! We no longer have large families, but 60,000 of our youth emigrated last year. Our politicians think this is great. From having the most youthful country in the EU, it is appearing increasingly likely that we will shortly have the oldest society; no one in Ireland appears to be given it a thought! The Wake up Call was seven years ago: our politicians are still asleep!

Who do they think is to pay off our rapidly increasing Public Debt? Is there anybody out there who is capable at joining the dots! You can bet your sweet life that the International Financial Buccaneers who operate from percentages are doing this; other peoples' "Panic without rational thought" is their natural friend: they do not mind that the house of cards come tumbling down; they will have their "pound of flesh".

UCD Economist Ahern is a half decade too late with his thoughts! Ironically, all of the above would have been brought to the notice of the Economics Department of UCD with The Watcher Paul Henry - | Pictures from Achill 24/7 as the calling card.
 
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needle_too

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I think we need those commentators who predicted the disaster to start looking for the positives. We need to get rid of the national fear and it is people like Morgan Kelly, Brian Lucey etc who can do it.
Why should they look for positives; or negatives for that matter?

They interpret information and relay facts.


............we need to lose the fear......
Thats exactly what you dont need to do.
Ireland 'lost the fear' and had buckets of 'confidence' over the past 10-15 years and look where that got you.
A little bit of poverty, hardship and humility is whats needed to right the ship.


I think respected commentators are the people to re-engineer that confidence.
God al-fkn-mighty, never read so much fart-headed management shytology in one sentence.

You need to wake up and face facts; Fianna Fail (and their banking arm) and the Labour movement have royally fkd the economy.

Grinning like some patient in a mental hospital might make you feel better but it isnt going to make the debts disappear.
'Feelings' dont pay the bills or put food on the plate; its time you beardys copped on to that.
 
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