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Morgan Kelly: Ireland to contract by 20-25%, Unemployment 20%


Simbo67

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Piling Anglo losses on to national debt risks bankrupting the State - The Irish Times - Tue, Jan 20, 2009

Dr Kelly of UCD has said in todays Irish Times that the nationalisation of Anglo Irish must be stopped at all costs. He has also said that the Irish economy will contract by 20-25% before this is over and unemployment will rise to 15% this year before rising to 20% next year. Only with the onset of mass emigration will the unemployment rate stop steady.

Kids, this is serious stuff. The nationalisation of Anglo Irish can not go ahead. The international markets are now betting against us. Anglo needs to go under and we need to concentrate on the "good" banks. The vote will likely be one of the most important a TD will ever make.
 


Bobert

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How is the vote looking?

I believe FG and Labour are to vote against it, SF probably will as well. What about the indos and FF BBs?
 

Factorem

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Piling Anglo losses on to national debt risks bankrupting the State - The Irish Times - Tue, Jan 20, 2009

Dr Kelly of UCD has said in todays Irish Times that the nationalisation of Anglo Irish must be stopped at all costs. He has also said that the Irish economy will contract by 20-25% before this is over and unemployment will rise to 15% this year before rising to 20% next year. Only with the onset of mass emigration will the unemployment rate stop steady.

Kids, this is serious stuff. The nationalisation of Anglo Irish can not go ahead. The international markets are now betting against us. Anglo needs to go under and we need to concentrate on the "good" banks. The vote will likely be one of the most important a TD will ever make.
TDs better start equipping the gardai with all the CS spray and tazers they need.
 

Simbo67

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He is basically telling people to tell their tds to vote against this...
His revelation about Cowen going against the advice of his advisors is pretty damning too
 

Factorem

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How is the vote looking?

I believe FG and Labour are to vote against it, SF probably will as well. What about the indos and FF BBs?
The party whip will have them all in line by tomorrow.

Of course the vote is going to pass.

The only way it won't, is if the Greens bring down government.

No FF TD is going to jeopardise his standing within the party by going against them in their hour of need. It's better to have a happy retirement from the inside, than a bitter one on the outside. Lots of FF dinners and race meetings (complete with the right coloured badges) for these back-benchers to look forward to.

They'd be mad not to get in line.
 

Simbo67

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I can imagine that this article is going to create a bit of a firestorm, it articulates I think what a lot of us have been trying to figure out. If it gets significant play tomorrow in the media it may create some pressure.
 

CookieMonster

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How is the vote looking?

I believe FG and Labour are to vote against it, SF probably will as well. What about the indos and FF BBs?
It'll pass. .......
 

kerrynorth

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This article explains Cowen's bizarre 'shut the feck up' statement this evening. The opposition have the ammunition now to go after and bring down the government tomorrow.
 

Simbo67

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They must have heard that this article was coming out so they tried to get in the patriotic duty bit in first.
 

feargach

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Interesting. Is Mr Kelly suggesting the Gardaí should get involved?

If he is suggesting that the government has altered a decision for the financial advantage of a political party, would that imply that he is suggesting arrests are in order?

Or does the Official Secrets Act disallow the Gardaí from questioning those in the know, should they wish to?
 

Bobert

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Simbo67

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They have the ammunition now. I can not see why they wouldn't. They are going to vote against anyway before all this.
 

muck_savage

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This is potentially a turning point in the history of the State.

The people of Ireland or the golden circle of property developers.

Pick your side.
 

shutuplaura

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Interesting. Is Mr Kelly suggesting the Gardaí should get involved?

If he is suggesting that the government has altered a decision for the financial advantage of a political party, would that imply that he is suggesting arrests are in order?

Or does the Official Secrets Act disallow the Gardaí from questioning those in the know, should they wish to?
He didn't say anything about the cops did he? I must re-read.

As an ex-pat who actually wants to come back to ireland one day I find this article profoundly depressing. Mass emigration is all that can save the country? Will it really be that bad?
 

Simbo67

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The really scary thing is that his predictions are so so much worse than the official estimates and that means that the borrowing requirements and the rate of contraction are going to be much much worse than we have been figuring so far.

He has been sounding the alarm bells for a couple of years now.
I am an ex-pat too, looks like I wont be coming home any time soon either...
We have basically thrown away everything we gained in the last 20 years. Everything.
 

shutuplaura

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Sorry for the off topic post but what is the jobs market like in the states Simbo?
 

Simbo67

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Pretty rough! Better staying where you are from what I hear!

Jesus though, Morgan is talking about 20% unemployment by next year and 15% by this summer. That is way way beyond what other people have been predicting (for this year).
S
 

Question R24U

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Has he been right in his predictions?

Pretty rough! Better staying where you are from what I hear!

Jesus though, Morgan is talking about 20% unemployment by next year and 15% by this summer. That is way way beyond what other people have been predicting (for this year).
S
It is also beyond his own predictions but for some reason this hero of property pin has been elevated into the new messiah -'
(after blessed richard bruton notwithstanding his anglo irish shares). The king of the pin, has left economic analysis and is now a political agitator and is making serious allegations based on illegal leaks from the most economically sensitive meeting since devaluation in early 90s. Anyone else relying on such sources would be dismissed as a crank. Why not him? He is the most negative of all commentator.
Can anyone establish, with links, that he has been correct on any of his predictions to date? (i don't actually expect an answer but abusive rhetoric is the norm) ..
 

muck_savage

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Can anyone establish, with links, that he has been correct on any of his predictions to date? (i don't actually expect an answer but abusive rhetoric is the norm) ..
Housing Bubble Bursting - boards.ie

29-12-2006

Would your describing yourself 'In negative equity' be colouring your perceptions of someone who is very bearish on property? Would you prefer to be spoonfed some hopelessly optimistic guff by spoofers like Marian Finnegan, Dan MLaughlin & Austin Hughes? Don't let Morgan burst your bubble.
 
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