Morgan Kelly latest [23.05.2010]

[politicaldonations]

Burden of Irish debt could yet eclipse that of Greece - The Irish Times - Sat, May 22, 2010
Puts the deluded fools in PS turning down croke park deal in context.

 

[mollox]

Burden of Irish debt could yet eclipse that of Greece - The Irish Times - Sat, May 22, 2010
Puts the deluded fools in PS turning down croke park deal in context.

The great thing about this is that Morgan Kelly can be utterly wrong and it will cost him nothing. If he's 100% wrong he will simply say that it was only an academic hypothesis!
He identifies the original Govt blanket guarantee of the financial institutions as the core problem, but this was the strong recommendation of his academic colleague David McWilliams.
Bloody academics, we should insist that they be (financially) burnt at the stake when they publish predictions which turn out to be dangerously wrong.
I'll happily bring the parafin & matches for Messrs Whelan, McWilliams & Co.

 

[PaddyJoe McGillycuddy]

The great thing about this is that Morgan Kelly can be utterly wrong and it will cost him nothing. If he's 100% wrong he will simply say that it was only an academic hypothesis!
He identifies the original Govt blanket guarantee of the financial institutions as the core problem, but this was the strong recommendation of his academic colleague David McWilliams.
Bloody academics, we should insist that they be (financially) burnt at the stake when they publish predictions which turn out to be dangerously wrong.
I'll happily bring the parafin & matches for Messrs Whelan, McWilliams & Co.

So why don't you start with the paraffin and matches with all the banks and economists who inflated the Celtic Tiger bubble: Dan MdLoughlin, Jim Power, Marc Coleman and all the Goodbody's stockbrokers types who are regularly trotted onto RTE? Funny thing is they are all still around giving worthless advice

 

[NiceView]

The great thing about this is that Morgan Kelly can be utterly wrong and it will cost him nothing. If he's 100% wrong he will simply say that it was only an academic hypothesis!
He identifies the original Govt blanket guarantee of the financial institutions as the core problem, but this was the strong recommendation of his academic colleague David McWilliams.
Bloody academics, we should insist that they be (financially) burnt at the stake when they publish predictions which turn out to be dangerously wrong.
I'll happily bring the parafin & matches for Messrs Whelan, McWilliams & Co.

AFAIK the bank guarantee was meant to be a temporary stopgap to allow the govt breathing space for an orderly cleanup, before releasing the guarantee.

sadly, it became the stoploss for the bankers, and has remained so, as the bankers claim that without them we are all lost.

 

[hammer]

Well done Morgan.

Spot on the money again.

This is the knowledge that the Fianna Failures have and yet they are trying to encourage us to go out and spend spend spend. No chance.

The only people they can go after for tax are PAYE workers. Lots more pain for PAYE workers.

Social welfare & chilrens allowances will continue to be targeted.

Property tax & water rates will prove impossible to collect. Defaults will be enormous.

 

[Dillinger]

The great thing about this is that Morgan Kelly can be utterly wrong and it will cost him nothing. If he's 100% wrong he will simply say that it was only an academic hypothesis!
He identifies the original Govt blanket guarantee of the financial institutions as the core problem, but this was the strong recommendation of his academic colleague David McWilliams.
Bloody academics, we should insist that they be (financially) burnt at the stake when they publish predictions which turn out to be dangerously wrong.
I'll happily bring the parafin & matches for Messrs Whelan, McWilliams & Co.

They committed the biggest crime in our insular society. They went against the grain and spoke their mind. They broke from the herd and questioned how this country is run. The lemmings are not happy.

 

[yerra]

Again a clear picture of "where we are" from the man who must feel at times he is wasting his breath.
They did not listen
theyr'e not listening still.
And aren't the deniers up early on a Saturday morning?

 

[hammer]

No chance of him getting the front page of the Sindo is there

Might confuse the FFailures as to what really is happening.

 

[nonpartyboy]

The politicans will get whats coming to them, but every civil servant who recommended this course of action(the guarantee) should be sacked, they are the untouchable elite.

 

[Tomas Mor]

So why don't you start with the paraffin and matches with all the banks and economists who inflated the Celtic Tiger bubble: Dan MdLoughlin, Jim Power, Marc Coleman and all the Goodbody's stockbrokers types who are regularly trotted onto RTE? Funny thing is they are all still around giving worthless advice

Morgan Kelly has been targetted by Harris and the Sindo, as a prophet of doom. Coleman still has his rants in same Sindo, and a 2 nights a week on Newstalk. Ugly Dan McLoughlin, or desperate Dan now is an expert on energy. He was guy who used tell us that a semid in ordinary estate in Dublin at half a million was "damn good value".

 

[eire_sai]

Sounds likes a perfectly reasonable analysis to me.

Fair play to Morgan for speaking his mind on these issues.

 

[Magror14]

I recall that famous article by Morgan Kelly in the December 2007 Irish Times which predicted in precise terms the trajectory of the economic collapse. After I read that article I immediately texted people I knew and suggested that they sell their commuter belt "investment" properties.

This article has the same eerie ring to it. The Government should just not waste any time and start doing what he suggests.

 

[Dreaded_Estate]

Morgan is pretty much spot yet again.

 

[captainwillard]

Morgan is pretty much spot yet again.

Presumably because you share his opinion.

 

[Deleted member 17573]

It's a reasonable analysis but there are other economists offering different perfectly reasonable analyses - and arriving at different conclusions. That's kinda the nature of economics, isn't it?

 

[GDPR]

"On the face of it, Ireland’s debt position does not appear catastrophic. At the start of the year, Ireland’s government debt was two- thirds of GDP: only half the Greek level. (The State also has financial assets equal to a quarter of GDP, but so do most governments, so we will focus on the total debt.)

Because of the economic collapse here, the Government is adding to this debt quite quickly. However, in contrast to its inept handling of the banking crisis, the Government has taken reasonable steps to bring the deficit under control. If all goes to plan we should be looking at a debt of 85 to 90 per cent of GDP by the end of 2012."

When an economist makes a statement along these lines, "(The State also has financial assets equal to a quarter of GDP, but so do most governments, so we will focus on the total debt.)", you have to wonder why.

But as Morgan says, lets focus.

Would anyone care to put some figures on Morgans percentages as quoted above?

 

[Tomas Mor]

I recall that famous article by Morgan Kelly in the December 2007 Irish Times which predicted in precise terms the trajectory of the economic collapse. After I read that article I immediately texted people I knew and suggested that they sell their commuter belt "investment" properties.

This article has the same eerie ring to it. The Government should just not waste any time and start doing what he suggests.

That was actually Dec 2006, well before last general election. It was a seminal article.

 

[politicaldonations]

It's a reasonable analysis but there are other economists offering different perfectly reasonable analyses - and arriving at different conclusions. That's kinda the nature of economics, isn't it?

not much subjectivity in that article im afraid.

 

[Magror14]

You know, Tomas, I had actually typed December 2006 but I said to myself "No way he couldn't have called it that early" so I typed in 2007.

 

[Tomas Mor]

You know, Tomas, I had actually typed December 2006 but I said to myself "No way he couldn't have called it that early" so I typed in 2007.

Quite so, I have that article on net,and also hard copy IT in its original. In the past year or two I have sent it to several people, all of whom were shocked at his early prediction. But who cared.