Mp's Trigger Vote of No Confidence in May and will vote *today* -Predictions and Preferences


Surkov

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Well it has finally happened. The 48 letters are in. The vote will occur within hours.

Please reply and state a) your prediction and b) your preference (would you prefer May stay in place as PM for the time being at least... or is she so toxic she should be gotten rid of ASAP).

Link:
'I will contest it’: UK PM May to face vote of confidence in leadership over Brexit deal

May is about to fight tooth and nail to stay on.

My prediction is she will lose the vote. My preference is that she loses. However, I would have preferred this contest to happen a little later down the road so as to maximise the chances of a WTO Brexit. Ideally May would have floundered on, delaying and delaying the vote on here "deal" which would ultimately have been defeated -presuming that vote ultimately would have occurred (perhaps it still will?). The clock would run out and a WTO Brexit would happen by default. But for her to win the contest now ensures she stays on as PM for perhaps another year.
 

livingstone

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Think she will win by c20 or 30 votes. ERG types will claim she should go even if the party votes confidence in her.

And she should stay - any leadership contest now will probably throw up a leader who will allow no deal to arise, as is the default. Only May (or someone like Rudd, who I don't think would win the leadership) would ensure a no deal exit.
 

Surkov

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She'll win the vote.
My thinking is that since she would have been forced out had she lost the vote on her "deal" hands down, and it's pretty clear that "deal" will never pass no matter what, she should lose the contest today. But will she? As I said earlier contesting her leadership now is premature. Late January or February would have increased the odds. Oh well!
 

Surkov

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Think she will win by c20 or 30 votes. ERG types will claim she should go even if the party votes confidence in her.

And she should stay - any leadership contest now will probably throw up a leader who will allow no deal to arise, as is the default. Only May (or someone like Rudd, who I don't think would win the leadership) would ensure a no deal exit.
Freudian slip?
 

wombat

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She'll win the vote.
That was the prediction a few weeks ago when they couldn't get the signatures to force a vote. I think most MPs will vote for self preservation and support May
 

Surkov

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Reminder: this is a secret vote.

Anything could happen really. What one says in public and feels in private are not necessarily one and same.
 

Surkov

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Think she will win by c20 or 30 votes. ERG types will claim she should go even if the party votes confidence in her.
Don't you think May should win at least 200 votes to retain some semblance of credibility, at least within her own party?

If she has a very weak victory she should do the honourable thing and resign. She won't though.

How would you feel if she won by exactly a majority + 1 vote.

That's it, 1 vote.

And then decided to 'soldier on' staying in such a high office.

You -and btw the idea is to try and deliver objective opinions - feel that would be proper order?
 

President Bartlet

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She will win and win comfortably - the ERG dont know their ar$e from their elbows - this whole vote is a giant waste of time
 

Fr Dougal

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She will win and lead the UK out of Europe...after all, she did her very best to have a soft Brexit.
But the Eurocrats and the unreasonable Irish blocked all her attempts at a compromise
 

Roll_On

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There isn't anybody else who wants to drink from the poison chalice so surely she'll win by default. More importantly she needs to get this deal through parliament. Tick tock.
 

Aristodemus

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She will win and win comfortably - the ERG dont know their ar$e from their elbows - this whole vote is a giant waste of time
Correct. They have overestimated their strength for some time. Over two weeks ago we were assured that they had the 48 letters yet it has taken it until now to actually reach that figure.
 

Surkov

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She will win and lead the UK out of Europe...after all, she did her very best to have a soft Brexit.
But the Eurocrats and the unreasonable Irish blocked all her attempts at a compromise
One thing is for sure: if she stays on it will be a WTO exit come March. Amazed the number of people who can't grasp that fact.

Do Europhiles really think that when her "deal" is voted down (if it even gets a vote which is by no means guaranteed) that the referendum will be nullified by the Tories? Not gonna happen and neither is a GE. They won't risk Corbyn as PM.

Roll on March then. It'll be here in the blink of an eye.

Another point: a Leadership contest at Christmas makes sense. People are so occupied with the festivities they will hardly notice. A new Leader emerges in January.
 

Surkov

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There isn't anybody else who wants to drink from the poison chalice so surely she'll win by default. More importantly she needs to get this deal through parliament. Tick tock.
That is completely impossible, either now or later.
 

Betson

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May will win this easily , the Tory party is bitterly divided and will remain so.
 

Surkov

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May will win this easily , the Tory party is bitterly divided and will remain so.
For her to win "easily", wouldn't the party have to be united. Rather stating the obvious here.
 

Betson

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For her to win "easily", wouldn't the party have to be united. Rather stating the obvious here.
She will win easily not because she is good at her job or is well regarded by a lot of her own MP's but because a large amount of these MP's detest the alternatives more. The party IS so divided that while they might agree that she is a very poor PM there is nowhere near any sort of consensus as to who in the party would make a good PM. That is why she safe as houses in the job.
 

forest

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she will win the vote what happens next is anyone guess
Expect at least two or three big twists in the brexit saga before March 29
 
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